UFC 205: Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor Full Card Preview and Predictions

UFC 204 was a show designed for one fighter (Michael Bisping) and one city (Manchester, England). UFC 205 on Saturday, Nov. 12 is so much more.

Twenty years ago, mixed martial arts was the Wild West of sports. It had few rules, little regulation and no equipment. It was labeled as "human cockfighting" by politicians and actively embraced the idea that it was an underground blood sport.

Unsurprisingly, that led to its banning in many states in 1997, just a short time before UFC 12 was to return to New York. Worse yet, that was followed by a number of pay-per-view carriers refusing to broadcast the sport, leaving the UFC with few places to set up events and few ways for fans to see them.

Obviously, things changed with time. The UFC cleaned itself up and improved its image. It returned to television, made the push to network television and, eventually, became a normal part of the sports world.

There was, however, one black mark that lingered from MMA's dark ages: The sport remained banned in New York.

Sure, it was easy to forget given the UFC's gains at the box office and international expansion. And sure, it was easy to shrug it off as silly politics, given the fact that the lingering prohibition was largely rooted in a struggle between the UFC's ownership group and the culinary workers union it viciously fought to keep out of its casinos.

Still, that blemish lasted for years on end. The UFC sank millions upon millions into lobbyists and lawsuits to push into the Empire State, which led to disappointment after disappointment...

Until March 2016. In a surprising turnaround, the New York State Assembly voted in favor of legalizing MMA, and the UFC is celebrating this turn with one of the biggest, best events in its history.

This is the UFC's coming-out party, and because of that, it's worth being excited and worth taking a good look at the entire event.

Fight Pass Prelims

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Liz Carmouche vs. Katlyn Chookagian

The first woman to ever step into the Octagon as a competitor Liz Carmouche is back after an 18-month layoff. Her opponent? Katlyn Chookagian (8-0). Neither woman has been especially inspiring to this point, but both have some upside: Carmouche still owns a bit of name value, and Chookagian's undefeated record is a valuable promotional tool. That said...don't expect this to be exciting.

Lyman Good vs. Belal Muhammad

This fight is out of place on this card, huh? Muhammad is an unremarkable 1-1 UFC fighter, and Good is a regional-level talent who, despite being a champion during Bellator's formative years, washed out of an off season of The Ultimate Fighter in the first episode. Good has the edge here on his body of work, but this isn't a great matchup.

Jim Miller vs. Thiago Alves

Jim Miller is on a two-fight winning streak in 2016, and Thiago Alves is a lightweight. What a time to be alive! This should be a fun fight between two veterans who are known for exciting performances. Who wins likely comes down to Alves' cut down to 155 pounds. If it doesn't take too much out of him, this could be a slam dunk for him. If his energy gets sapped, though, things could get dicey.

Televised Prelims

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Tim Boetsch vs. Rafael Natal

Tim Boetsch vs. Rafael Natal is the ultimate gatekeeper vs. gatekeeper fight, making this a low-stakes bout that is tough to get excited for. That said, chances are that Boetsch lands something heavy and scores a big knockout.

Tim Kennedy vs. Rashad Evans

This is a battle between two men who have beaten reigning middleweight champ Michael Bisping. As a result, this is a fairly high-stakes bout. Unfortunately, Evans is 37 years old, coming off a devastating knockout loss and is dropping to 185 pounds for the first time in his career. The odds feel stacked against his returning to form here.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson

The UFC did sambo master Khabib Nurmagomedov dirty when they sent him a fake bout agreement for a title fight with main eventer Eddie Alvarez, and it's not too keen on rebuilding bridges based on this fight. He faces Michael Johnson, who has some formidable grappling skills and a great deal of power in his striking as well. Khabib is the favorite here, but this fight has upset written all over it.

Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens

Frankie Edgar lost his shot at Red Panty Night at UFC 200 when he came up short against Jose Aldo. That leaves him spinning his wheels for the foreseeable future. He'll face fringe Top 10 vet Jeremy Stephens in a fight that feels like busywork for the former champ.

Main Card Fights

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Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington

Miesha Tate is back after her disappointing title loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 200. Her path to gold restarts here against former protege Raquel Pennington.

Pennington kicked off her UFC career as a member of Team Tate on The Ultimate Fighter season 18, defeating Tonya Evinger and Jessamyn Duke before losing to Jessica Rakoczy in the semifinals. She has since carved out a niche as an above-average bantamweight, sitting along the fringes of the Top 10.

This fight will boil down to savvy and scrappiness...and that's most certainly a scenario that favors the former champ.

Donald Cerrone vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Unfortunately, UFC 205 will not host a dream match between Donald Cerrone and former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. Instead, it gets the good-but-not-great matchup of Cerrone opposite Kelvin Gastelum.

The veteran Cerrone has been lights out since moving to the welterweight division but faces a stiff test in the young, hungry Gastelum. Both men have proved to be dynamic, well-rounded fighters, and both have a history of being slow starters. With only three rounds to work, that makes this one a bit of a toss-up.

Chris Weidman vs. Yoel Romero

Chris Weidman is back for the first time since dropping the middleweight strap to Luke Rockhold at UFC 194 in Dec. 2015. Yoel Romero is back for the first time since his failed drug test earlier this year. Now they face off with a shot at the title possibly being on the line.

Both men are known for their powerful wrestling and stopping power. Weidman is the superior all-around fighter due to his more refined striking game, but Romero's pure speed and explosiveness can fell any foe in the blink of an eye. Once again, this is a tough-to-call match between two high-level fighters.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

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Division: Strawweight
Records: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk is quickly becoming one of the most popular fighters among hardcore fans in the UFC, and for good reason. Inside the cage, she is a savage with a beautifully refined striking game. Outside the cage, she has become one of the best fighters in the business in terms of making the most of her time on camera.

That popularity has the UFC putting her on the biggest stages possible, and UFC 205 could be the biggest one yet. Unfortunately, she faces a deceptively stiff challenge in Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Before joining the UFC, Kowalkiewicz was the toast of the Polish MMA circuit. Despite being relatively young in her career, she rode her solid striking game to victory over some stiff competition. 

Her skills, of course, have held up in the UFC. She started her UFC career with good wins over TUF20 alum Randa Markos and Heather Jo Clark and then squeaked past Rose Namajunas at UFC 201 in a gutsy effort. While she hasn't dominated an opponent in a long while, she has demonstrated an ability to adjust to foes and implement her own game. 

That makes this fight with Jedrzejczyk an interesting one. While the champ has largely been dominant to this point in her MMA career, she has done so at the expense of competition with a relatively limited, grappling-focused toolset. Kowalkiewicz, however, will attack her as a striker, a scenario the champ hasn't yet faced.

This has the makings of a competitive fight. That said, it's impossible to pick against the champ these days.

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk defeats Kowalkiewicz by unanimous decision.

Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson

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Division: Welterweight
Records: Tyron Woodley (16-3), Stephen Thompson (13-1)

Tyron Woodley was angling for a big money fight when he took the welterweight title from Robbie Lawler at UFC 201 but is settling for a regular money fight on a big money event instead. That, however, could backfire on him in a big way.

The reason? He is facing Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson.

Thompson, inexplicably, has been completely ignored by UFC decision-makers, and the former kickboxer lacks the gift of gab to make up for it. His in-cage work, however, has spoken for itself to the point where this is a hotly anticipated contest.

Since 2013, Thompson is 7-0 opposite elite competition including Johny Hendricks and Robert Whittaker. Along the way, he has established himself as arguably the best striker in MMA today and, more importantly, as a fighter who has all the tools to keep the fight where his strengths shine.

Woodley, despite being the champ, is something of an unknown at this point. He was a fairly accomplished NCAA wrestler in his day and has dynamite in his right hand. That said, inconsistency has defined his UFC career to this point.

While he posts the occasional huge knockout, his losses to Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields highlighted several weaknesses in his overall game. His last fight before his title shot was a narrow split-decision win over Kelvin Gastelum (which came a day after the youngster was hospitalized). The biggest name Woodley has beaten, Carlos Condit, was felled by a fluke knee injury rather than a legitimate offensive blitz from the current champ.

This is a unique bout in that way, as the hotshot challenger is more thoroughly established as an elite fighter. Because of that, it feels like this one is bound to end with an "and new." 

Prediction: Thompson defeats Woodley by unanimous decision.

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor

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Division: Lightweight
Records: Eddie Alvarez (28-4), Conor McGregor (20-3)

Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor is the ultimate battle for MMA's soul.

Alvarez is the perfect embodiment of what MMA was. He's a wrestler-turned-mixed martial artist. A product of the regional and international scene. A meat-and-potatoes family man. 

McGregor is what MMA has become. He's a flashy striker with a karate background. A product of social media who became a national hero as the sport became more mainstream. A blend of equal parts camera-friendly swagger and competitive legitimacy.

The contrast is no less profound in the cage. McGregor sprints to a knockout, pressing forward and peppering foes with kicks before landing his signature left hand. Alvarez fights are much more dynamic, with the champ capable of challenging any opponent at range, on the ground or in the clinch.

Who will win is a tough question to answer because both men, despite being champions, have shown weaknesses that benefit the other.

Alvarez has been staggered in many of his recent fights, which opens the door for an early knockout win for McGregor. On the other hand, McGregor's UFC 202 fight with Nate Diaz cast doubt on his gas tank, making it easy to wonder if Alvarez might take control of this bout down the stretch. 

Alvarez's fight against Donald Cerrone begged the question of whether he had the right tools to go after long opponents. McGregor, meanwhile, still has people discussing whether he can handle a good wrestler. 

This fight is compelling in large part because of how many unknowns are at play. It could end in any way and at any time. The best way for fans to approach it would be to sit back, relax and enjoy. Anyone desperate for a prediction will have to accept a shaky...

Prediction: McGregor defeats Alvarez by TKO in Round 2.