Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Over their 15 years of existence the Houston Texans remain winless against two NFL teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings. In fact, Houston is 0-3 both straight up and against the spread in three games all-time against Minnesota. The Texans get a shot at crossing the Vikings off that list when they visit Minneapolis on Sunday.

Point spread: The Vikings opened as six-point favorites; the total was 39.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.0-12.2 Vikings (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Houston is 3-1 both SU and ATS through the first quarter of this season following a 27-20 victory over Tennessee last week. The Texans scored touchdowns on their first two possessions to take a quick 14-0 lead and held a 17-3 advantage early in the second quarter but allowed the Titans to rally and tie the score at 20-20 midway through the third. Houston rookie Will Fuller then returned a punt 67 yards for a score to break the tie, and the defense, even without J.J. Watt, did the rest, securing both the win and the cover as a four-point favorite.

For the day, Houston outgained Tennessee 359-320, as new starting quarterback Brock Osweiler threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, although he also threw two picks, while new lead running back Lamar Miller hit the 80-yard mark for the fourth game in a row.

Two weeks ago the Texans laid an egg up at New England, losing 27-0, but they actually outgained the Patriots that night. Problem was, all their yardage came between the 30s, and they turned the ball over three times.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Even without their starting quarterback and superstar running back, the Vikings are 4-0 both SU and ATS after fending off the New York Giants on Monday night 24-10.

Minnesota took advantage of a New York muffed punt to take an early 7-0 lead, then bumped that to 14-0 on a Sam Bradford-to-Kyle Rudolph touchdown connection midway through the second quarter. The Vikes allowed the Giants to get within 17-10 early in the fourth, then immediately reasserted themselves, driving 76 yards to a Jerick McKinnon four-yard touchdown run, icing the victory and grabbing the cash as four-point favorites.

Minnesota outrushed New York 104-78, held a 36/24 advantage in time of possession and got another nice performance from Bradford, who hit on 26 of 36 throws for 262 yards and that one score without a pick.

Meanwhile, over its last three games the Vikings defense has held offenses run by Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning to a total of 34 points.

Smart pick

Minnesota may be 4-0, but it's used smoke and mirrors to get there. The Vikings didn't even score an offensive touchdown in a win over Tennessee, scored one offensive touchdown in a win over Carolina and on the season are actually minus-15 in per-game yardage.

Houston, on the other hand, has outgained all four opponents this year. Also, the Vikings are playing on a short week. Take the Texans here, plus the points.

Betting trends

The Texans are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Vikings.

The total has gone under in five of the Texans' last six games.

The Texans are 1-7 SU in their last eight games in Week 5.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.