Jameis Winston Must Improve, but Bucs Need to Help Him Too

It doesn't take much for young NFL quarterbacks to end up first in a staredown, then in a showdown. All it takes is one word.

That word? Progress.

It's a word that can carry a vague meaning for them, the fans and even coaches. On the most basic but fundamentally important level, the lowest bar to be cleared is this one: Don't look like a rookie beyond the year when you're actually a rookie.

In that sense, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has failed.

Sometimes, he's failed spectacularly, like in Week 4 when he threw two interceptions during a loss to the Denver Broncos. And other times, he's failed while confusing us, like when he opened the season averaging 8.8 yards per attempt, then averaged a career single-game low of 4.7 yards in Week 2.

There hasn't been a hint of consistency from him in 2016, or seemingly a shred of confidence. It's all been so rookie-like in the most haunting way possible for a first overall pick.

Which is why another word is being thrown around now in reference to Winston: regression. But that word assumes there was a significant peak for Winston to tumble from. And that simply isn't true.

The most troubling element of Winston's early struggles in 2016—highlighted by eight interceptions already—isn't that we're seeing them now. No, it's that we've seen this all before, and the routine is becoming familiar in his second season, a time when he should be flying free from his rookie cocoon.

This time, his mass production of crippling turnovers is worse, and as Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times noted, Winston is on an early trajectory to make history. The worst kind of history.

The mirror image shown when we put the beginning of Winston's 2016 season next to the same four-game period in 2015 is the sort of picture that should be displayed on front lawns alongside witches and goblins for Halloween.

In 2015, he quickly received a cold welcome to the NFL with a four-interception game against a strong Carolina Panthers defense in Week 4. In 2016, he was the recipient of an identical gut punch; this time, the four-pick outing came against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2.

In 2015, Winston's completion percentage spiraled below 50.0 in two of his first four starts and sat at 54.9 overall heading into Week 5. He also had a passer rating of just 71.2.

In 2016, Winston has finished games with a completion percentage at 51.9 (Week 2) and 48.6 (Week 4). His overall completion percentage is 30th among quarterbacks who have taken at least 25 percent of their teams' snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. And his passer rating is a lowly 72.9.

A lack of change or something resembling forward baby steps between his first and second year means Winston is losing his battle to establish any kind of progress. But his stumbling start gets more jarring when we look past the similarities to 2015.

At this time a year ago, he had at least recorded one interception-free game. That definitely falls under the tiny and ant-like positive-step category. It's not nothing, though, and worth noting because we're still waiting on Winston's first game without being responsible for a turnover in 2016.

Including his two lost fumbles, he's committed 10 turnovers, which is two ahead of this point in 2015. A year ago, he had also thrown an interception on only 2.8 percent of his pass attempts, a rate that's spiked to 4.5 percent now.

He reached his 2016 total turnover number in lightning-quick time, too. Winston has been efficient with his turnover generosity, and as USA Today's Luke Easterling reminds us, he didn't need four full games to throw his eight interceptions:

There's no way to polish eight interceptions over any four-game period. The stink emitted is much stronger when said period comes right as a new season begins.

The way Winston has gone about putting balls into the wrong sets of hands shows stagnated development. He's likely making his coaches log lots of miles on long walks.

We're not talking about an epidemic of tipped balls and poor luck here. Winston's mistakes have too often been the result of poor field vision, bad decisions and a burning desire to jam footballs into peepholes.

His opponents know it, too. If the most amateur eyes can study film and see how obvious it is that Winston locks in on one receiver, then making the same observation must be easy for Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr.

His comments to JoeBucsFan.com after Harris' Broncos beat the Buccaneers in Week 4 come off as a harsh critique at first. But Harris was merely giving an honest answer about his preparation for an opponent. It didn't seem like too much was needed because Winston has become painfully predictable:

"

We knew that once he goes through those reads, he's just going to the throw the football (sic). So we didn't have to bait him at all.

Whatever his [read] is, he's going to throw that read. So I don't know if he's coached to do that, or whatever it is. We just knew that, regardless, if you're right there, he's going to throw the ball.

"

So intercepting Winston is a matter of seeing what he's seeing and looking where he's looking. And then either getting there or just being there to begin with.

That's how routine it was for Harris' teammate and fellow cornerback Aqib Talib, who snatched two of Winston's throws in Week 4.

Talib's second interception from that game sheds light on a core problem with Winston in 2016. He forces what's not there instead of taking what the defense offers.

The story of this doomed decision is first told by pointing out what Winston either didn't see or didn't want to see.

On 3rd-and-10 from his own 28-yard line, extra care was needed. Which is why it's perfectly reasonable to check down to the safe dump-off pass.

See that running back who doesn't have a defender within 10 yards of him? That's Charles Sims, and he should have had a football in his hands shortly.

Credit: NFL GamePass

Could Sims have broken a tackle and run for the first down? That feels unlikely against a swarming Broncos defense.

But it was definitely possible, and more importantly, getting the first down was cake icing in that situation during the second quarter on 3rd-and-long deep in your own territory.

Checkdowns aren't sexy, and they're an easy way to make lots of people say "boo-urns" in unison. However, a quarterback who's mentally in tune with his surroundings shouldn't always concern himself with setting off chunk-play fireworks. Instead, he needs to factor in his field position and the game situation.

And in this particular scenario—a tied game early with the down and distance not in Winston's favor—it wasn't the right time for a high-difficulty throw that came with a basement-level percentage of success.

But that didn't stop Winston from trying to rifle a ball into zone coverage about 16 yards away from where he stood behind the line of scrimmage.

This is what he saw downfield as wide receiver Mike Evans broke off his route.

Credit: NFL GamePass

Completing the throw meant firing a supersonic laser beam that would arrive at the intended destination before Talib—who made the simple read and couldn't have been positioned better—took two steps to get into the flight path.

It was possible, but only in the superhuman and/or Superman sense of quarterbacking. You know that little bit of light that creeps through the window when you didn't quite close the blinds all the way and are trying to sleep in on a Sunday morning? Yeah, that's the opening Winston saw.

Which is why the play ended in more head-shaking while walking to the sideline. But in Winston's defense, it's not hard to see how the still maturing quarterback has been given the impression that he needs to do everything himself.

It's because, well, the Bucs have pretty much asked him to do everything himself.

The first sign of death is when an NFL offense becomes predictable. And as much as Winston keeps digging his own grave through poor reads and worse judgement, the Bucs' offensive approach has tossed more dirt on.

Tampa has a quarterback whose future is still promising despite these early struggles. But based on sheer passing volume, it's clear he's received a message, whether it was intended or not. Winston feels like the outcome of a game is solely on him and his arm.

As much as we put quarterbacks on a pedestal and think there's crushing pressure on every snap and every dropback, they don't fight alone. They need support from a rushing attack that's competent and, at bare minimum, one that defenses are forced to be aware of.

The injury to Bucs running back Doug Martin clearly hasn't helped matters in that regard. But running back is a combustible position by nature. Teams don't just abandon the run and leave their still inexperienced sophomore quarterback stranded on his own because of one injury.

Which is what the Bucs have done when we look at the first four games over the past two years again. Note the lack of offensive balance in 2016.

Year	Pass attempts	Rush attempts
2015	133	111
2016	177	97

Winston leads the league with 177 pass attempts, making him one of only three quarterbacks so far to eclipse the 170 mark. The other two are the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees and the Baltimore Ravens' Joe Flacco, who are both much more experienced.

There's a wide run-pass gap for the Bucs offense, and not one that can be cast aside because of blowout losses, either. Sure, the final scoreboards say Tampa has been pancaked twice, losing by a combined score of 67-14 to the Broncos and Cardinals. But their Week 1 win over the Atlanta Falcons came by only a touchdown, and in Week 3, Tampa lost to the Los Angeles Rams by just five points.

Heck, even the Broncos loss and its final score of 27-7 didn't get out of hand until late. The Bucs faced a 10-point deficit at halftime, and then trailed by 13 heading into the fourth quarter.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

When everything falls on the arm and mind of a young quarterback, he can be reduced to the most basic instincts. If he sees something, or anything at all, the trigger is pulled. Because if he doesn't take that risk—even if the odds for success are nearly insurmountable—then the offense won't move, points won't accumulate and neither will wins.

That's a fragile mental state for any growing quarterback only several games into his second season. Especially Winston, who is already too aggressive, overly confident in his arm strength and has a history of being interception-prone that extends beyond 2015 and 2016. He threw 18 interceptions during his final year at Florida State.

And it's a potentially tragic path for Dirk Koetter, the new head coach presiding over a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2007.

"Very," Koetter said when asked by Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times to assess his level of concern about Winston. "I'm very concerned. He's not regressing, but we've got to take care of the football. I mean, we've got to take care of the football. We can't turn it over three times in a half. We just can't do that."

No, you can't. Winning quarterbacks don't turn the ball over 10 times in four games. That's how you keep a postseason drought going while pondering deep thoughts about whether Winston really has the franchise-quarterback material to end it.