Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the New York Mets
Manager Terry Collins didn't hesitate to use his All-Star closer like his counterpart Buck Showalter did, but the results for New York Mets were the same as they were for the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card Game—an abrupt end to a promising season.
That the Mets even reached the playoffs, considering the significant injuries the team suffered over the course of the year, should be celebrated. But after being shut out by San Francisco in the National League's play-in game, a long offseason awaits the club.
Collins will most assuredly be back in the dugout next season. How the roster he'll be managing will look, however, is anyone's guess.
What follows is an overview of some of the decisions that the team will have to make—and some of the players they may look to—in order to bolster the roster for a return trip to the postseason, and perhaps the Fall Classic, in 2017.
Payroll Breakdown
1 of 4
With more than a third of its franchise-record $135 million Opening Day payroll from 2016 committed to just four players, it's easy to expect that the Mets will set a new franchise record in 2017, once you factor in raises through arbitration and the re-signing of their own free agents.
But you can never assume too much with the Wilpon family in charge of the team's purse strings. After a disappointing early exit from the playoff picture, are they willing to let general manager Sandy Alderson make the improvements he deems necessary? Or will they squeeze his budget?
| David Wright | 3B | $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Curtis Granderson | OF | $16,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | IF | $8,250,000 | $8.250,000 |
| Juan Lagares | OF | $2,500,000 | $4,500,000 |
| Total | $46,750,000 | $47,750,000 |
Arbitration-Eligible Players
2 of 4
A dozen Mets are eligible for arbitration this offseason, a list that includes two of New York's top three starters—both Cy Young Award contenders when healthy—an All-Star closer and both parts of the team's catching platoon, among others.
In a perfect world, the Mets would be able to work out long-term extensions with some of those players (especially Jacob deGrom and Jeurys Familia). But whether it's a one-year deal or a long-term pact, things are going to get expensive quickly.
In the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the players listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at similar points in their careers. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Travis d'Arnaud | C | $542.604 | $2,000,000 | Welington Castillo |
| Jacob deGrom | SP | $607,000 | $3,500,000 | Johnny Cueto |
| Lucas Duda | 1B | $6,725,000 | $8,250,000 | Brandon Moss |
| Josh Edgin | SP/RP | $625,000 | $975,000 | No Comparison |
| Jeurys Familia | CL | $4,100,000 | $7,500,000 | Kenley Jansen |
| Wilmer Flores | IF | $1,250,000 | $2,500,000 | Anthony Rendon |
| Matt Harvey | SP | $4,325,000 | $6,500,000 | No Comparison |
| Jim Henderson | RP | $600,000 | $950,000 | Johnny Cueto |
| Addison Reed | RP | $5,300,000 | $6,750,000 | Tony Sipp |
| Rene Rivera | C | $523,500 | $1,350,000 | Jose Lobaton |
| Justin Ruggiano | OF | $1,650,000 | Non-Tender Candidate | N/A |
| Zack Wheeler | SP | $546,250 | $1,000,000 | No Comparison |
| Totals | $22,000,000 | $35,500,000 |
If these predictions are anywhere near accurate, it's going to cost the Mets substantially more to retain the services of most of those players than it did a year ago.
While he wasn't at the top of his game against San Francisco, walking one and allowing two hits, including Conor Gillaspie's season-ending three-run home run, Familia remains one of the game's better closers and isn't going anywhere.
Neither is his bullpen buddy Addison Reed, who has been nothing short of spectacular since the Mets acquired him from Arizona last August. Over 97 relief appearances as a Met, he's pitched to a 1.84 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with 108 strikeouts in 93 innings of work.
The Mets also have a trio of talented starters who, while they'll all be coming off injuries—deGrom (forearm), Matt Harvey (shoulder) and Zack Wheeler (Tommy John surgery)—are due raises through arbitration. Barring a significant setback this winter, all three will be back in the mix next season.
Really, with the exception of veteran outfielder Justin Ruggiano, who saw limited playing time, all of New York's arbitration-eligible players are likely to remain with the club.
Players with Options and Free Agents
3 of 4
Yoenis Cespedes will dictate New York's plans for the offseason when it comes to its own free agents and whether to pick up or decline some of the options it holds.
| Jerry Blevins | RP | $4,000,000 | |
| Jay Bruce | OF | $12,500,000 | $13M team option, $1M buyout |
| Yoenis Cespedes | OF | $27,500,000 | Can opt-out of deal |
| Bartolo Colon | SP | $7,250,000 | |
| Kelly Johnson | IF/OF | $2,000,000 | |
| James Loney | 1B | $9,666,667 | |
| Jon Niese | SP | $10,000,000 | $10M team option, $500,000 buyout |
| Jose Reyes | IF | $22,000,000 | Team option for veteran's minimum |
| Fernando Salas | RP | $2,400,000 | |
| Neil Walker | 2B | $10,550,000 |
Cespedes might love New York, but odds are that he loves the idea of a multiyear deal that pays him in excess of $150 million even more. As the top free agent on the market, the Cuban sensation could see his next deal creep closer to the $200 million mark.
That's going to be too rich for the Mets. While Cespedes is a vitally important piece in the middle of the team's lineup, the Mets can simply exercise Bruce's option and give more playing time to Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo in 2017,
Whether Cespedes returns or not won't have any bearing on Reyes. “I hope Cespedes comes back, but it’s too soon to say,” Reyes told Dan Martin of the New York Post after the Wild Card Game. “I don’t even know if I’m going to be here. I’d love to be back and finish my career here. That was fun.”
It was also fun to watch "Big Sexy," Bartolo Colon, defy logic, pitching to a 3.43 ERA and 1.21 over nearly 200 innings of work at age 43. But with the emergence of Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, the Mets likely aren't willing to bet that he can fend off Father Time for another season.
The trade of infield prospect Dilson Herrera in the Jay Bruce trade makes it more likely that the team will try and re-sign second baseman Neil Walker, whose season-ending back surgery would normally throw his return into question.
.png?w=256)
Potential Free-Agent Targets
4 of 4
If the Mets learned anything in the 2016 season, it's that you can never have enough starting pitching. It'd be foolish for the club to believe that deGrom, Harvey, Steven Matz and Wheeler will all be able to stay healthy and make 30-plus starts next season, so adding rotation depth is a must.
With both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo having minor league options left, the Mets could look to add a veteran back-of-the-rotation arm and ride them as long as they can, letting that young duo continue to refine their games down on the farm.
The Mets could also look to add an everyday center fielder, though with Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo both in need of regular playing time, odds are the club will opt to go with some sort of platoon with one of them and Juan Lagares rather than make a run at someone like Dexter Fowler.
- Jhoulys Chacin, SP/RP: Chacin didn't have a great 2016, pitching to a combined 4.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in Atlanta and Los Angeles, but he owns a solid 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for his career and will only be 29 years old on Opening Day 2017. He could be the team's long reliever/swingman.
- R.A. Dickey, SP: The knuckleballer, who won the 2012 NL Cy Young Award as a Met, told Sportsnet's Shi Davidi last month that he hadn't decided on whether he'd pitch in 2017. But the soon-to-be 42-year-old could serve as a capable innings-eater at the back of the rotation and might welcome a return to the team with which he had his greatest success.
- Mat Latos, SP: Oft-injured and wildly inconsistent, Latos would represent a low-cost, high-risk addition. He's still capable of putting together stretches of brilliance like the 1.84 ERA he posted for the Chicago White Sox over his first five starts in 2016, but that success tends to be short-lived.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and All payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus). All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Mets' offseason plans or anything baseball-related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
