Short-Handed Cardinals in Full-On Desperation Mode as Season Slips Away
When the 2016 NFL schedule was announced, Thursday's Week 5 matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers appeared a lopsided affair—a walk in the park for a Cardinals team expected to be among the league's best against a Niners squad expected to be among the worst.
As often as not, things don't work out in the NFL like we thought they would. While we appear to have been spot-on about the 49ers, a reeling Redbirds team heads into the game short-handed and in desperation mode.
To say not many people expected Thursday's game to be a battle for last place in the NFC West is an understatement. The Cardinals didn't just enter 2016 as the favorites in their division; in the eyes of many, they were the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LI after winning a franchise-record 13 games in 2015.
Instead, after falling 17-13 to the first-place Los Angeles Rams last week, the Cardinals have lost as many games in a month as they did all of last season. At 1-3, a playoff trip that seemed predestined is hanging by a thread.
Despite the team's struggles early this season, Arizona head coach Bruce Arians insisted to reporters that neither he nor his players are panicking:
"We are not panicking. We are going to show up for work (Monday) because we have a game Thursday night against a very good team. We don't have time to dwell on this one. We only have time to watch the film. We'll be at work at 8 o'clock in the morning trying to get better and get a win.
The sky is not falling for us. I'm sure it is for a bunch of the fans. I am as disappointed as they are, but we have a game Thursday night.
"
It may well be that the Cardinals should be panicking a little. This early-season stretch was supposed to be relatively easy. The New England Patriots (whom the Cardinals lost to in Week 1) were the only team in Arizona's first six games that made the postseason in 2015. Five of the team's first seven games are at home, where the Cards went 6-2 last year.
Instead, Arizona has only a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to show for three home tilts, and the team is struggling in facets of the game it excelled at last year.
| Total Offense | 408.3 (1) | 382.0 (7) |
| Scoring Offense | 30.6 (2) | 23.0 (14) |
| Total Defense | 321.7 (5) | 313.5 (8) |
| Scoring Defense | 19.6 (7) | 20.0 (11) |
| Sacks | 36 (20) | 11 (6) |
| Takeaways | 33 (2) | 9 (3) |
| Giveaways | 24 (17) | 10 (29) |
| Big Plays (10+ yards rushing, 25+ yards passing) | 85 (7) | 18 (15) |
Defensively, at least, the Cardinals are essentially the same team they were last year in most categories. Yes, they've slipped to eighth in the league in total defense from fifth a season ago. But their scoring defense is only fractionally worse than in 2015, and the Cardinals are ahead of last year's pace where sacks are concerned. Ditto for takeaways, where Arizona is again near the top of the NFL.
It's a different story for an offense that was the engine that drove the team's success in 2015. Arizona is averaging 26 fewer yards per game and scoring a touchdown less per contest than a year ago. Third-down conversions are down, and turnovers are up.
The big plays that were such a hallmark of the Arizona offense in 2015 have been lacking as well. In 2015, the Cardinals tallied 85 total plays of over 20 yards passing or 10 yards rushing, per Sporting Charts. That number is down to 18 through four games this season.
Many of the offensive struggles for the Cardinals so far this year can be laid at the feet of one man—quarterback Carson Palmer.
After one of the best seasons of his career in 2015, Palmer is off to a start this season that lies somewhere between disappointing and awful. The 36-year-old's numbers are down relative to last season across the board, except in one area.
| 2015 | 63.7 | 291.9 | 35 | 11 | 104.6 | 82.2 |
| 2016 | 58.8 | 287.5 | 6 | 5 | 81.9 | 66.7 |
Interceptions—those are up.
Of course, Palmer's problems aren't the biggest issue heading into Thursday night, because the veteran signal-caller won't be on the field after sustaining a concussion against the Rams.
Arians refused to rule out Palmer's playing against the 49ers early in the week. "Nothing surprises me with these guys getting healthy anymore," Arians said in a press conference.
By Wednesday, however, Arians was singing a different tune. "There's no way I'm going to take any chances with him," Arians told reporters about ruling Palmer out for Week 5. "He argued a little bit, but he has not cleared. He's getting much better and he feels fine. Hopefully we'll have him back next week."
Were the Cardinals not in panic mode, this wouldn't be that big a deal. The team has an experienced backup in Drew Stanton. The Niners are not a good team by any stretch of the imagination. An argument could be made that some time off to clear his head (both literally and figuratively) isn't a bad idea where Palmer is concerned.
But that notion would be a lot easier to swallow had Stanton not just gone 4-of-11 with two interceptions against the Rams.
Stanton insisted to reporters he's confident he can go out and get the team a win: "I don't think you can sit back and worry about that rust. I think the rust could exist, but dwelling on that will take away from you going out there and having success. My main focus, if my number is called, is to go out and find a way to help this team win a football game."
If the Cardinals are smart, they won't ask Stanton to do a whole lot.
It would be unlike an Arians game plan, but the Dallas Cowboys just showed Arizona a recipe for beating the Niners. With star linebacker NaVorro Bowman lost for the season, the middle of the San Francisco defense is as soft and gooey as a 3 Musketeers bar.
Hand the ball to David Johnson 25 times and cram the rock down San Francisco's throat.
Granted, that will hardly solve all of Arizona's problems. But at this point, the Redbirds can't afford to look ahead. It sounds silly to say in the first week of October, but each week is a one-shot season in Arizona.
Beat the Niners and hope that Palmer returns to face a New York Jets team that's a lot harder to run on.
Beat the Jets, get back to .500 and hope Palmer is back to playing at a Pro Bowl level when the Seattle Seahawks come calling in Week 7.
After that, the schedule gets that much worse. A trip to Carolina to face a similarly struggling Panthers team that destroyed the Cardinals in last year's NFC Championship Game. Consecutive trips to Minnesota and Atlanta in Weeks 11 and 12. The annual visit to Seattle in Week 16. A suddenly relevant trip to L.A. after that.
Getting fat in the season's first half was supposed to take some of the sting out of that brutal stretch for the Cardinals, but things didn't go as planned.
Now there has to be a new plan. One-week seasons. No margin for error. That got squandered over the first four weeks of the season.
If the Cardinals are to have any hope of making the deep playoff run so many predicted, it's already desperation time in the desert.
They have no one to blame but themselves.
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