Sacramento Kings Complete 2016-17 Preview
Job security has been a foreign concept for recent Sacramento Kings coaches, but Dave Joerger—their ninth different skipper since 2006—might have cracked the code.
Want longevity atop this organization? Gain the trust of franchise face DeMarcus Cousins.
Joerger's predecessor, George Karl, never did. Karl burned that bridge by refusing to dub the All-Star big man untradeable, and Cousins used three emojis to show the distrust those words created. Karl only made it 14 months into his four-year deal before being axed in April.
Joerger was hired by Sacramento in May, days after being let go by the Memphis Grizzlies. By early June, he was earning brownie points with Boogie at the driving range, laying a foundation that's been strengthened since by an understanding of the X's and O's.
"The offense is different," Cousins told Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee. "I think it’s a good look for our team. I think this will help this team get to the next level. So it’s about us getting the system down pat and getting these options, a lot of options."
The Kings needed new direction after Karl's rocky tenure and more talent after a 33-49 season—their 10th consecutive losing campaign. An active offseason delivered both.
Sacramento bulked up its wings with proven NBA commodities Arron Afflalo, Matt Barnes, Garrett Temple and Anthony Tolliver. It stocked its prospect collection with 2016's No. 13 pick Georgios Papagiannis, fellow first-rounders Malachi Richardson and Skal Labissiere, former first-rounder Bogdan Bogdanovic and second-round flier Isaiah Cousins.
The Kings took hits at point guard, however. Rajon Rondo may not have been the most reliable floor general, but his 2015-16 season looks elite compared to those of Ty Lawson and Jordan Farmar. Not to mention that Sacramento may need to cover its ears if Seth Curry blossoms elsewhere.
The summer still stands as a clear positive for the Kings, but it'll take a Herculean effort to snap their decade-long playoff drought.
Rotation Breakdown
If Joerger has sketched out his rotation, he probably has one name in ink—Cousins—and the rest written, erased and rewritten in pencil. There are front-runners for the other four spots, but none should be set in stone.
Rudy Gay is the closest thing—he had the second-highest scoring average last season (17.2 points per game) and will collect the second-highest salary this time around ($13.3 million). But he's not long for Sacramento and struggles with efficiency as a mid-range specialist in a league that keeps pushing further out to the perimeter.
That won't keep Gay from claiming a starting forward spot, almost assuredly on the wing, given the roster's glut of bigs. Darren Collison should lock down the starting point guard gig once he's back from his eight-game suspension. Arron Afflalo's superior shooting will push him ahead of Garrett Temple at the 2. That should leave the 4 spot for Willie Cauley-Stein—Sactown's most prized prospect.
| Darren Collison | Arron Afflalo | Rudy Gay | Willie Cauley-Stein | DeMarcus Cousins |
| Ty Lawson | Garrett Temple | Matt Barnes | Anthony Tolliver | Kosta Koufos |
| Ben McLemore | Omri Casspi | Skal Labissiere | Georgios Papagiannis | |
| Malachi Richardson |
But all of this is fluid, including Cousins' positioning. As Joerger explained to Jones:
"Sometimes (Cousins will play) with Kosta [Koufos]. Sometimes he's going to play with Matt Barnes. When you're with this guy, you're more of a pop guy; with this guy, you'll play more high-low; in this situation, you're more of a playmaker at the elbow. I'm hoping that, and from what I've seen, he's got a pretty good IQ to be able to play chess with him and move him around a bit.
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If Lawson doesn't impress in Collison's absence, the Kings could deploy Temple at point and even work rookie Isaiah Cousins into the fold. They still need to figure out what they have in former lottery pick Ben McLemore, and they'll run Barnes and Omri Casspi at both forward spots.
This roster looks ripe for a trade to ease the logjams at shooting guard and center. But until any moves are made, Sacramento's three first-round picks could see most of their minutes with the NBA D-League's Reno Bighorns.
Reasons for Confidence
Even with the anti-analytic combo of Rondo and Gay last season, the Kings fielded the league's 14th-most efficient offense. That's not a meaningless stat—of the 13 teams ranked higher, only one had a worse record (the painfully young Minnesota Timberwolves)—but Sacramento's dreadful defense made it feel that way.
The Kings couldn't get anything right on that end—they were last in points allowed, 24th in field-goal percentage against and 23rd in efficiency. They had just a single player ranked among the NBA's top 120 in ESPN.com's defensive real plus-minus—Cousins, naturally.
That changed the minute Joerger signed on the dotted line. His three Grizzlies teams finished 11th or better in opponents' scoring, and while the defensive talent didn't migrate with him, the trademark toughness did.
"We're going to pick up the physicality; we're going to put our hands on you," lead assistant Elston Turner said, per Jones. "Teams are going to know that we're on the floor. So the scoring may come down a bit, but believe me, the defensive part is going to raise up."
There's upside here, and not just the it-can't-get-any-worse variety. Between the philosophical changes and roster moves, it could be the birth of a new identity.
Barnes and Temple have played physical defense for years. Afflalo has proved to be a pesky stopper when he's engaged. Cauley-Stein and Labissiere offer imposing length at the rim, and Kosta Koufos is a burly beast underneath. All of this still needs to translate from on-paper potential to actual on-court progress, but there's momentum to help climb the defensive ladder.
Reasons for Concern
This space could be used to focus on the organization's typical dysfunction, the tricky personalities in this locker room and the impact of Gay having one foot out the door. But there's a chance Joerger could manage those issues better than those before him.
There are basketball reasons to worry, however, and not even a coaching mind as sharp as Joerger's can cover up the glaring hole on this roster.
"Point guard is the obvious weak spot here," wrote CBS Sports' James Herbert. "Lawson is coming off by far the worst season of his career. Collison took a plea deal in his domestic violence case and will ... be suspended to start the season. Temple is a solid defensive combo guard, but not much of a playmaker."
Lawson is the closest thing to a proven playmaker, but he suited up for two squads last season and struggled to crack either rotation. Collison seeks out his own shots before anything else and hasn't averaged six assists per 36 minutes since 2012-13. Temple played more small forward than point guard for the Washington Wizards last season.
Of last season's 16 postseason participants, 10 were quarterbacked by current or former All-Stars. The exceptions included the league's highest-paid player (Mike Conley), a former All-NBA selection (Goran Dragic), two franchise building blocks (Reggie Jackson and Kemba Walker) and one of Gregg Popovich's all-time favorites (George Hill). The other is no longer running his team (Patrick Beverley).
This isn't the position where teams want to struggle, but it's tough to see how Sacramento won't. The Kings may have never viewed Rondo as a long-term option, but they lost substantial production when he bolted.
Theoretically, the Kings could get their creativity from a different position, but which player eases that concern? Gay, McLemore and Afflalo all have sticky hands, and the non-Boogie bigs aren't known for their passing. Cousins boasts exceptional vision and passing ability for a player his size, but the Kings need him capitalizing on his shots—not putting them in less capable hands.
Predictions
Sacramento's long road to relevance finally appears headed in the right direction. There's more talent than this time last year and better direction at the top. But anyone expecting a dramatic leap up the standings will be disappointed.
Sacramento may have seemingly spent a lot on win-now vets, but those moves had more to do with changing the culture than opening a path to the 2017 playoffs.
"The wins and losses don't matter as much as how we are, and how we play, and how we practice going forward," Joerger told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. "We're laying down the foundation here."
If Joerger can hold Cousins' support for the campaign's duration, Boogie will put forth his best overall season to date. But he still won't have a teammate accompany him to the All-Star Game, and the Kings won't distinguish themselves on either end of the floor.
Sacramento needed change, and this season should start the transition. But it took years to make this mess, and it'll require more than one to clean it.
- Final Record: 36-46
- Division Standing: Third in Pacific
- Playoff Berth: No
- B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: 26th
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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