Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) are hoping the return of running back Le'Veon Bell from a suspension will help boost their offense when they host the Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) as solid home favorites in the Week 4 Sunday night game.

The Chiefs are also optimistic that running back Jamaal Charles (knee) will be back in the lineup as they look to pull off the road upset and cover the spread for the fifth time in six meetings. 

Point spread: The Steelers opened as four-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.8-17.8 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

Kansas City is 4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings with Pittsburgh, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database, despite losing three of the last four in the series straight up. Three of those five were decided by four points or less, with two of them won in overtime on a field goal.

The Chiefs are coming off a dominant defensive performance in a 24-3 rout of the New York Jets last week, picking off quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick six times and forcing eight turnovers overall, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Another strong effort like that on defense would help Kansas City at least cover here.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The home team is 6-1 straight up in the past seven meetings, and the Steelers will be primed to bounce back from a disappointing 34-3 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles as four-point favorites last week.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was outplayed by Philadelphia rookie QB Carson Wentz, who shredded the Steelers for a career-high 301 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles held running back DeAngelo Williams to just 21 yards on eight carries, and Bell will be able to provide the team with fresh legs that can take pressure off Roethlisberger and open up plays for him in the passing game.

Smart pick

Charles is still iffy for Kansas City following his recovery from a torn ACL, so his status needs to be monitored closely leading up to kickoff. Regardless, bettors should not count on him to make the same kind of impact right away that Bell will.

Bell has a lot to prove to his teammates after violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy for the second time, and he will make it up to them in leading the Steelers to an easy win and cover.

Betting trends

The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Steelers.

The total has gone under in six of the Steelers' last seven games.

The total has gone under in five of the Chiefs' last seven games.

All NFL betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.