New Orleans Saints vs. San Diego Chargers: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New Orleans Saints (0-3) are one of four winless teams in the NFL heading into Sunday's road matchup with the San Diego Chargers (1-2), but they're only listed as small underdogs at the sportsbooks. The Chargers haven't been much better than the Saints through the first three games, with their lone win coming against winless Jacksonville as three-point favorites in Week 2.

Point spread: The Chargers opened as four-point favorites, and the total was 52 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.6-17.2 Chargers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints have gone 3-1 straight up and against the spread in their past four meetings with San Diego. Quarterback Drew Brees helped lead them to wins in the last two since he joined the team after spending his first five years with the Chargers.

Brees has put up Hall of Fame numbers in New Orleans and still has a chip on his shoulder from when San Diego opted to go with Philip Rivers over him after the 2005 season. This will be Brees' first trip back to Qualcomm Stadium, where his NFL career began. Expect him to be extra motivated to stay perfect versus the Chargers in this spot.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego lost a heartbreaker last week against the Indianapolis Colts, going from a SU win in the final minutes to a loss and failing to cover on the game-winning touchdown pass from Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton.

That play wiped out an otherwise valiant effort from the Chargers, who have now suffered both their losses on the road in games they led for good stretches. On a positive note, they dominated the Jacksonville Jaguars in their lone home game, jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead and never looking back.

Smart pick

Unfortunately for San Diego, Qualcomm has been one of the worst home-field advantages in the league. You can even make an argument that it doesn't provide any edge because the opposition's fans often fill more than half the stadium. The Chargers have gone a dismal 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games there, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database.

Plus, some Chargers fans will definitely be rooting for Brees, who has played well even in defeat this season. He'll lead the Saints to their first win here at San Diego.

Betting trends

The Saints are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at home.

The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in October.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.