NASCAR at Dover 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Citizen Soldier 400
This, my friends, is what itโs all about: Chase for the Sprint Cup elimination races.
The buzzword of the week will be, no doubt, pressure. Tony Stewart, Jamie McMurray, Chris Buescher and Austin Dillon sit below the line. Three of those drivers still have a chance at making it to the Round of 12 on points. One must win, and, frankly, heโs incapable of that at this point.
Drivers above the cut line arenโt guaranteed of certain advancement, either. The Monster Mile at Dover International Speedway acts like a garbage disposal at times. In the spring, we saw a monster wreck that was on par with anything Talladega or Daytona can throw at the circuit.
Only Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are safe. The other 14 still have work to do for the Citizen Soldier 400.
Read on for this elimination-style preview and prediction before the green flag waves at 2:15 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Driver Standings and Round of 12 Bubble
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1. Brad Keselowski, +35
2. Martin Truex Jr. WINNER
3. Kyle Busch, +33
4. Matt Kenseth, +26
5. Joey Logano, +21
6. Kevin Harvick, WINNER
7. Denny Hamlin, +19
8. Jimmie Johnson, +18
9. Chase Elliott, +16
10. Carl Edwards, +16
11. Kurt Busch, +15
12. Kyle Larson, +5
13. Jamie McMurray, -5
14. Austin Dillon, -5
15. Tony Stewart, -11
16. Chris Buescher, -30
Which Bubble Drivers Will Survive?
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Itโs safe to say Buescher wonโt advance to the Round of 12. Heโs down 30 points to the cut line, which means he must win.
Hereโs the thing: He canโt. His average finish in the first two races of the Chase is 29th. It took him only 50 or so laps at Loudon to fall a lap down. Heโs only in the Chase because of the predictably unpredictable weather in the Poconos.
That leaves Stewart, McMurray and Dillon as the three who have a chance at making the Round of 12.
Stewartโs hill is the toughest to climb, being down 11 points. Can Stewart be 11 spots better than Kyle Larson? Twenty-six better than Kurt Busch? Twenty-seven better than Carl Edwards? Probably not. Busch soared into the top five at Loudon when he was left for dead by his jackman. Edwards has shown an uncanny ability to win poles, which leaves Larson as Stewartโs target in the standings.
But Dillon and McMurray only have to be five spots better than Larson on Sunday to threaten.
As much as it would heighten the overall swan-song narrative of this Chase, it appears Stewart has finally lost steam in his final season.
โUnfortunately,โ writes Fox Sportsโ Larry McReynolds, โit seems like the wheels have come off. His best finish since Watkins Glen was 16thย at Chicagoland in the Chase opener.โ
Three championships on Stewartโs mantle suggest heโs got some aces up his sleeve, and in a race where the name of the game is โsurvival of the fittest,โ expect Stewart to reach deep into his bag of tricks to supplant those ahead of him.
Which To-the-Good Drivers Are in Danger?
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For as much speed as Edwards brings to the track prior to the race, heโs often left scratching his head at the end. It rarely carries over as he and his team scramble for strong finishes.
That was the case at Loudon, and now the No. 19 team stands just 16 points to the good. Far better than where Stewart et al. are, but Edwards is one bad wreck from falling off the grid into the obscurity.
"I respect how difficult (Dover) could be," Edwards said after Sunday's race at New Hampshire, according to Tim Durr ofย FoxSports.com. "The spring race is a good example and a good lesson for us. We are focused and we know we can run well and we also know if you lose your focus for a split-second that place can ruin your day."
Elliott and Kurt Busch are also in that fray, one mishap away from having that yellow paint scraped right off the spoiler.
Pardon the pun, but these guys are in the driversโ seats and in control of their fate. A tactically conservative race will advance them to the Round of 12. That, of course, wonโt cut it in the next round, with 33 percent of it getting slashed as the ground beneath their feet erodes.
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Will Jimmie Johnson Make It 11 Wins at Dover?
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Itโs no secret that Johnson has the most wins ever at Dover. For those NASCAR fans who have been living in the caves of Lascaux, Johnson has 10 Miles the Monster trophies. Thatโs an army.
Despite an inexplicable speeding penalty from P1 at Chicagoland, Johnson recovered to finish 12th and then parlayed that into an eighth-place finish at Loudon.
Johnson, seemingly forgotten, has found some speed. The Hendrick Motorsports organization has woken up from its summer torpor. All cars are driving in the top third of the running order.
โWeโre working hard,โ Johnson said in Jeff Gluckโs USA Today story. โThere's a lot of optimism and a lot of great things happening. We just need to deliver consistently and execute at the track.โ
The mere fact that this team and this car are finding speed at this time bodes well for the No. 48.
Dark-Horse Pick: Tony Stewart
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He was the dark horse last week, and he makes it two in a row at the track where he's won three times.
This spot has notoriously been the kiss of death all season. Land on this slide, and youโre all but assured of a trip to the garage.
That said, I like a desperate Stewart. He was desperate (and lucky) at Sonoma, the track where he earned that mandatory win.
Now heโs in a similar position. The season, for the first time since June/July, is on the line again.
At this point, heโs not above spinning Larson like a dreidel if it comes down to it.
And the Winner Is...Jimmie Johnson
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Dover devoured Johnson in the spring. His car let him down last fall. Many people believe bad things come in threes.
I donโt buy it.
Johnson has had a car capable of top-fives two weeks in a row and visits the track that should rename its Victory Lane after him.
Not since 2013, the last time Johnson won the Sprint Cup, has he felt like a true contender. Part of that was the new Chase format that throws entropy at the drivers where once they could control events. Part of it is how Team Toyota has mastered this new aero package.
Hey, Chevy won last week at Loudon. Make it two in a row for Chevy and a renaissance of sorts for the driver of the No. 48.
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