Most Overhyped 2017 NBA Draft Candidates Heading into the Season

The hype machine is working at full force to pump up the projected 2017 NBA draft class.

But some of the expectations it's creating are unjustified. 

We saw it happen last year with Skal Labissiere, who went No. 28 overall after entering his freshman season viewed as a potential No. 1 overall talent. This year, a handful of young prospects, including another No. 1 overall contender, are being similarly overvalued. 

Enticing athleticism and physical tools are often to blame. In another case, one point guard has an elite strength that's resulted in unfair comparisons to a former All-Star at the position.

The following five prospects will be impact college basketball players and first-round options come June. But don't let the hype cloud your view of their NBA ceilings.

Honorable Mention: Jayson Tatum (Duke, SF, Freshman)

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Jayson Tatum is an honorable mention due to the fact I still view him as a top-10 prospect. He should wind up being a fine 2017 draft option, even for a team that is selecting late in this year's lottery. But grabbing him in the top two, which is where a bunch of scouts told me they'd take him?

That sounds like a reach to me.

An obvious talent and one of the most accomplished freshmen in the country, Tatum should start for Duke and immediately emerge as one of the team's go-to options. Still, despite his expected production and convincing eye-test results, I'm not sold on his future NBA value. 

Tatum is a terrific scorer—the question is whether he will make his offense and teammates better. Though he's an advanced shot-creator, one-on-one remains his preferred scoring method, and it can come at the expense of ball movement.  

Even with the ability to separate into and knock down pull-ups and step-backs, it's tough to get behind a shot selection that features a heavy dose of tough, two-point jumpers, particularly in today's NBA. The fact that he isn't a strong passer or three-point shooter further reduces his margin for error as a scorer.

There's no doubt Tatum can create and make shots against a set defense. He'll put up points at every level. But as he moves from high school to college to the pros, where he'll spend more time off the ball, the adjustment could hinder his ability to score consistently within the flow of the offense.

Preseason Draft Projection: Late lottery

Lonzo Ball (UCLA, PG, Freshman)

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Nobody can argue with Lonzo Ball's high school track record or unmatchable passing ability. His NBA upside is another story.

He is going to drop jaws with spectacular vision and assists throughout his career, though I'm skeptical of his playmaking translating to top-10 buzz or future stardom.

Limited strength and explosiveness, along with an unpolished mid-range game and unconvincing jump-shot mechanics, foreshadow scoring and shooting inefficiency. Ball can put it in the hole, but he's bound to struggle to create high-percentage shots for himself.

And despite possessing bounce off one foot in transition, I'm anticipating trouble for Ball at the rim in the half court. Given his skinny upper body and average burst, separating and finishing through contact will be a challenge. 

Whether at UCLA or the pro level, his coaches shouldn't bank on Ball to pump in 15-20 points regularly. And that diminishes his appeal with an NBA that now values scoring at the point guard position more than ever (10 of last year's top 30 scorers were point guards, if you include James Harden). 

For what it's worth, Ball shot 9-of-36 from the floor and 4-of-21 from three during UCLA's three exhibition games in Australia over the summer. He'll look better once the season gets going, but with Bryce Alford and Aaron Holiday (combined 26.4 points and 9.2 assists per game) back in the lineup, it won't be the Ball show like it was in high school. 

He's still sure to carve out an NBA career, given his 6'6" size, elite passing and capable shot-making. But Ball's ceiling could top out at mid-tier to low-end starter—not at Jason Kidd's level. 

Preseason Draft Projection: Mid-first round

Edmond Sumner (Xavier, PG, Sophomore)

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Edmond Sumner has emerged as a popular breakout name this summer following thrilling freshman flashes and positive reviews from July's Nike Skills Academy. Nobody is arguing his upside, which is fueled by 6'5" size for a ball-handler and explosive athleticism.

I'm questioning the likelihood of his reaching it. 

The numbers and eye test both indicate Sumner's jumper is bad news—it's more of a fling than a clean flick of the wrist. He hit 25 threes in 31 games at a 30.1 percent clip (51.6 percent true shooting percentage, per Sports-Reference.com).

And he was equally ineffective inside the arc, where he made only 12 two-point jumpers all year on 43 attempts (27.9 percent), per Hoop-Math.com. 

With a silent pull-up game and limited range for a sophomore who's older than most in his class (he turns 21 in December), his shooting would need to make a monster jump to offer significant NBA value. Sumner also struggled at the rim (49.6 percent), and though we've seen glimpses of playmaking, facilitating doesn't come naturally to him (3.6 assists per game, 2.1 turnovers). 

Highlights of Sumner weaving through traffic, soaring above the rim and slicing to the rack can stimulate the imagination. It's exciting to think about what he could look like if everything comes together. But just too many aspects of his game require significant maintenance. 

Unless he returns with revamped perimeter skills and more all-around polish, he'll be too big of a project (to justify lottery consideration) for a prospect at the NBA's most competitive position. 

Preseason Draft Projection: Late first round (2017 or 2018)

Omer Yurtseven (North Carolina State, C, Freshman)

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Excitement and expectations followed Omer Yurtseven's commitment to North Carolina State. I'm not as bullish on the Turkish 5-star recruit, per Scout, and it's not just because the NCAA still hasn't cleared him to play.

Yurtseven has stood out overseas with his eye-catching 7'0" size and mobility; however, his athletic ability, polish, versatility and toughness have been harder to identify. 

Having only flashed glimpses of basic jump hooks and baseline spins, he's mostly a catch-and-finish and putback threat on the offensive glass. He would have to make significant strides over the next few years to become anything more.

Even as a simple-play finisher and rebounder, he seems to lack NBA bounce, power and length (7'0 ¾" wingspan) to get away without advanced post moves, face-up scoring and shooting range (58.8 percent on free throws through 74 games since 2013).

To his credit, he was productive this summer at the U20 European Championships, and if he's able to suit up this year at North Carolina State, he'll provide the Wolfpack the same contributions he gave Turkey: bunnies around the basket, tip-ins, rebounding and some shot-blocking. 

But I haven't seen what sets Yurtseven apart as a high-end NBA prospect. With dozens of scouts on hand at Basketball Without Borders last February, he showed uninspiring urgency, which was actually more unsettling than his pedestrian skills. Unlike fellow Turkish big man Enes Kanter, who was able to go No. 3 overall in 2011 after sitting out his entire freshman year, Yurtseven needs the reps for development and opportunities to strengthen his stock. 

Either way, he'll probably wind up as a hit-or-miss flier in the late 20s or second round, whether it's in 2017 or later. 

Preseason Draft Projection: Late first to second round

Thomas Bryant (Indiana, PF/C, Sophomore)

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Between the pro tools (6'10", 7'5 ½" wingspan) and freshman efficiency (68.3 percent shooting), Thomas Bryant returns with breakout expectations. He'll emerge as an impact sophomore and productive Big Ten center—I'm just not banking on the NBA love to follow.

Although he's long, strong and wired with energy, those attributes don't mask athletic limitations, shaky skills and a questionable feel for the game. 

Bryant isn't a face-up scorer or stretch-big shooter, which raises some questions concerning his future role and value in a pro offense. His 58 total turnovers (2.9 per 40 minutes) to 34 assists weren't reassuring, either, when you consider his NBA projection envisions a role player. 

He fails to compensate with defense too—Bryant had tons of trouble last year in pick-and-roll coverage, showing poor instincts and limited lateral quickness. His inability to get low in his stance and switch off ball screens will be problematic in today's NBA. 

Heavy feet also counterbalance Bryant's length in rim protection, where he blocked just 32 shots in 35 games.

At Adidas Nations in August, DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony noted "the speed and quickness of the game sometimes looked like it overwhelmed him [Bryant]."

It won't be the last time someone makes that observation. As a future pro, he'll likely struggle with the same challenges that have held back former Michigan State Spartan Adreian Payne during his NBA transition.

Preseason Draft Projection: Late first to second round (2017 or 2018)