Updated Round-by-Round 2016 MLB Playoff Predictions Heading into Final Week
We are less than two weeks away from the start of the 2016 MLB playoffs, with the AL Wild Card Game set to be played on Oct. 4 and the NL Wild Card Game slated for Oct. 5.
Anything can happen in October—as we've seen time and again—and trying to predict how the postseason will shake out is often an exercise in futility.
That being said, it's still fun to try to guess the results before the postseason festivities begin, and that's exactly what we've done here.
What follows are round-by-round predictions for how the 2016 MLB playoffs will turn out, complete with both relevant regular-season statistics and wildly specific postseason predictions on both a team and individual level.
Enjoy.
AL Wild Card Game
1 of 9
The Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Season Series: TOR 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Blue Jays 4, Tigers 2
A red-hot Detroit Tigers team riding a five-game winning streak keeps things rolling to claim the No. 1 wild-card spot in the AL, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles continue to battle into the final week of the season for the No. 2 spot.
Those two teams meet for a huge three-game series in Toronto at the start of next week, and we'll say the Blue Jays step up when it matters most with a huge sweep to put the Orioles away for good and surge into the postseason.
That sets the stage for a win-or-go-home battle at Comerica Park.
Justin Verlander is an easy choice to take the ball for the Tigers, as he's enjoying his best season in years and is a legitimate AL Cy Young candidate at 15-8 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 234 strikeouts in 213 innings.
The Blue Jays have a somewhat tougher decision.
Aaron Sanchez has been the team's best starter all year, and he was sharp last time out after a 10-day layoff, but he's dealt with some blister problems this season and remains something of a wild card.
With Marco Estrada struggling of late while dealing with a herniated disc in his back and both Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey having been nothing if not inconsistent this season, J.A. Happ is probably the other pitcher who gets significant consideration.
We'll say it's Sanchez who gets the nod, though, and it turns out to be the right decision.
The 24-year-old All-Star throws seven strong innings, allowing two runs on a home run off the bat of J.D. Martinez, and he exits with things knotted up 2-2.
Verlander matches him through seven innings but runs into trouble in the eighth when he loads the bases before giving way to the bullpen.
The Blue Jays don't blow things open, but they're able to push across a run to take the lead and tack on an insurance run in the top of the ninth on a solo shot by Edwin Encarnacion.
Joaquin Benoit and Roberto Osuna are perfect in the eighth and ninth, and the Blue Jays are on to the ALDS.
NL Wild Card Game
2 of 9
The Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Season Series: SPLIT 3-3
Predicted Outcome: Cardinals 3, Mets 2
Here's how the remaining schedules shape up for the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals, the three remaining NL wild-card hopefuls:
- NYM: vs. PHI (2), @ MIA (3), @ PHI (3)
- SF: @ SD (2), vs. COL (3), vs. LAD (3)
- STL: @ CHC (2), vs. CIN (4), vs. PIT (3)
The Mets are currently one game up on the Giants, who have a half-game advantage over the Cardinals, so things are still wide open.
A quick look at the games left to be played reveals an obvious advantage for the Mets, and at 13-8 with a plus-17 run differential in September, they've been playing the best baseball of the three teams as well.
The Giants on the other hand have not been playing well, and a leaky bullpen has been the biggest culprit. That season-ending series with the rival Dodgers will be a big one, and you can bet that the Dodgers won't be resting their starters with a chance to end the Giants' season.
It comes down to the final weekend, but the Cardinals finally shake off their struggles at Busch Stadium to surge ahead of the Giants and claim the No. 2 spot.
That sets up the all-or-nothing matchup at Citi Field, with an obvious pitching matchup of Noah Syndergaard for the Mets and Carlos Martinez for the Cardinals on tap.
Syndergaard faced the Cardinals once this year, allowing seven hits and three runs (two earned) over six innings to take the loss.
Meanwhile, Martinez was 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his two starts against the Mets, picking up the win in both games.
The Cardinals jump on Syndergaard for three runs in the second inning before he settles in and pitches well through six, but that's enough for the Redbirds as Martinez is brilliant with seven scoreless and the Mets offense goes cold.
Curtis Granderson makes things interesting with a two-run home run off of Kevin Siegrist in the bottom of the eighth, but Seung-Hwan Oh slams the door in the ninth for the save, and the Cardinals are on to the NLDS.
ALDS
3 of 9
The Matchup: (WC) Toronto Blue Jays vs. (1) Texas Rangers
Season Series: TOR 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Rangers 3, Blue Jays 2
Our first ALDS matchup gives us the rematch that everyone is hoping for on the AL side between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers.
From the contentious five-game ALDS a year ago to the fireworks created by the Rougned Odor punch heard round the world, there's no love lost between these two clubs, and this series has all the makings of another classic.
The Rangers jump out to the early-series lead behind a terrific start from Cole Hamels, who outduels J.A. Happ en route to a 4-2 victory.
The Blue Jays steal one in Game 2, though, as Marcus Stroman is able to recapture some of last year's magic when he allows two runs over seven innings of work.
Yu Darvish pitches well enough to win, but the Blue Jays strike for three runs in the sixth on a big fly from none other than Jose Bautista, and the one-two punch of Joaquin Benoit and Roberto Osuna closes things out.
Aaron Sanchez is on the mound again for the Blue Jays in Game 3, and he pitches like an ace once again, keeping the middle relief out of play with another seven innings of stellar baseball.
Colby Lewis gets the start for the Rangers and holds his own for four innings before unraveling in the fifth when Toronto strings together five straight hits and puts a crooked number on the board.
Facing elimination, the Rangers go back to Hamels in Game 4 and the Blue Jays counter with Marco Estrada, who has been plagued by a herniated disk in his back and not been the same pitcher of late.
The Rangers assert themselves early with four runs in the first to chase Estrada, and they pile on from there against the long relievers for a convincing 11-2 victory to force a decisive Game 5.
It's Darvish on the mound again for the Rangers, with Happ coming back from a strong Game 1 outing to take the ball for the Blue Jays.
On a short leash, both pitchers exit after five innings with the score knotted up at 2-2.
The Rangers immediately capitalize with three runs in the sixth, highlighted by an Adrian Beltre homer, and the bullpen picks Darvish up with four scoreless innings to send the Rangers on to the ALCS.
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ALDS
4 of 9
The Matchup: (3) Cleveland Indians vs. (2) Boston Red Sox
Season Series: BOS 4-2
Predicted Outcome: Red Sox 3, Indians 0
The Boston Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now, riding a nine-game winning streak and going 16-5 with a plus-68 run differential in the month of September.
That's put them in the driver's seat in the AL East and may have also pushed them into the role of favorites on the AL side heading into October.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Indians have been dealt a pair of significant blows over the past few weeks when both Danny Salazar (strained forearm) and Carlos Carrasco (fractured hand) were sidelined.
That makes the Red Sox heavy favorites heading into this matchup, and they'll show why.
Rick Porcello continues what has been a brilliant season in Game 1 when he outduels Corey Kluber with eight scoreless innings, and the Red Sox eek out a 1-0 victory behind an RBI double by Hanley Ramirez.
Trevor Bauer gets the ball for the Tribe in Game 2, facing off against David Price, who once again has something to prove given his postseason resume.
Bauer starts off strong before things get away from him in the fifth inning, and the Red Sox strike for five runs behind back-to-back home runs from David Ortiz and Mookie Betts.
The rout is on from there, as the Red Sox hang 12 runs on the Fenway Park scoreboard to take a commanding 2-0 lead with the series heading to Cleveland.
The Indians are forced to turn to Josh Tomlin in Game 3, with Mike Clevinger waiting in the wings as a piggyback option.
The Red Sox counter with July pickup Drew Pomeranz, who has gone through some ups and downs since joining the Red Sox and has something to prove himself.
The home run issues that have plagued Tomlin all season return against the Red Sox's loaded lineup, as he gives up a pair of long balls and exits before getting out of the third inning down 3-0.
Clevinger comes on and throws four scoreless innings in relief, and the Indians trim the lead to 3-2 when Mike Napoli gets on the board against his former team, but that's as close as they'd get.
Ortiz continues his retirement party with a solo blast in the eighth to give the Red Sox a two-run cushion, and Craig Kimbrel picks up his second save in three games to complete the sweep.
NLDS
5 of 9
The Matchup: (WC) St. Louis Cardinals vs. (1) Chicago Cubs
Season Series: CHC 9-8
Predicted Outcome: Cubs 3, Cardinals 1
In a rematch of last year's NLDS, the Chicago Cubs play host to the St. Louis Cardinals this time around, and they jump out to a quick 2-0 lead with a pair of wins at Wrigley Field.
Jon Lester gets the nod in Game 1 for the Cubs and backs it up with seven strong innings, which is more than enough when the Cubs offense chases Adam Wainwright early.
The Cubs push across five in a big fifth inning, including back-to-back home runs from Ben Zobrist and Addison Russell, and cruise to a 7-1 victory.
Kyle Hendricks takes the ball for the Cubs in Game 2, an easy choice given his 9-2 record and 1.32 ERA at home, and he proves why he belongs in the NL Cy Young conversation with eight scoreless innings.
However, the Cardinals get a terrific start of their own from rookie Alex Reyes, who puts up matching zeroes through six innings before allowing a two-run double off the bat of Kris Bryant in the seventh.
Aroldis Chapman closes things out in the ninth and hits 105 with his fastball in a particularly dominant outing, as the Cubs walk away with a 2-0 victory and a commanding lead.
The Cardinals turn to ace Carlos Martinez with the series shifting to Busch Stadium and the season hanging in the balance, and he delivers with seven innings of one-run ball.
The Cubs make the bold move to skip Jake Arrieta in the rotation and go with John Lackey against his former team in a park where he was 9-4 with a 1.93 ERA last season, but the gamble doesn't pay off as he makes it just five innings and allows four runs on home runs by Randal Grichuk and Brandon Moss.
The Cardinals walk away with a 5-2 victory and push the series to Game 4.
Arrieta gets the ball in Game 4 against veteran Mike Leake, and the Cubs chase him early with three runs in the first and two more in the second.
The Cardinals cut into the deficit with a three-run fourth inning, but Arrieta settles in from there, and the bullpen trio of Travis Wood, Hector Rondon and Chapman close things out over the final three innings.
It's a 6-3 victory for the Cubs, and they're on to the NLCS.
NLDS
6 of 9
The Matchup: (3) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (2) Washington Nationals
Season Series: LAD 5-1
Predicted Outcome: Dodgers 3, Nationals 1
After struggling to field a viable starting rotation for much of the year, the Los Angeles Dodgers suddenly boast a pair of bona fide aces in Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill, who, along with Kenta Maeda, give the team a terrific trio in a best-of-five series.
On the other side, the Washington Nationals are still trying to decide who fills out their playoff rotation behind Max Scherzer and Tanner Roark.
Joe Ross is finally back in action but still trying to shake off the rust, and Stephen Strasburg still has no clear timetable to return from a flexor mass strain in his right elbow.
"I don’t know," manager Dusty Baker told reporters when asked of Strasburg's postseason availability. "I can’t say. We’re still two weeks off. We just have to wait and see. I hate to say ‘I don’t know’ all the time, but I really don’t know. These are questions I really can’t answer...we’ve done all that we can to take the MRIs and put hands on him—a quality fitness crew is here and our medical staff."
That makes Game 1 incredibly important, as the Nationals will need to get off to a good start behind Scherzer, but Kershaw won't make things easy.
In a pitcher's duel that lives up to the billing, both pitchers put up zeroes through seven innings, before Kershaw turns things over to the bullpen.
Joe Blanton puts two runners on in the eighth, and Kenley Jansen comes in early to try to pick up the save, but he allows an RBI single to Wilson Ramos that proves to be the difference.
Scherzer tacks on a scoreless eighth before reluctantly turning it over to closer Mark Melancon, who works a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.
That's as good as things would get for the Nationals, though.
Hill throws another gem in Game 2, and they walk away with an easy 6-1 victory after Roark lasts just five innings and the Nationals' middle relievers struggle.
Maeda and Gio Gonzalez both get knocked around in Game 3, but the Dodgers come out on top behind home runs from Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig for a 7-5 win.
Taking control of the series means the Dodgers don't have to turn to Kershaw on short rest, and it's rookie Julio Urias who takes the ball in his postseason debut against Scherzer in Game 4.
Pitching on just three days' rest, Scherzer is not nearly as sharp, and the Dodgers scratch across two runs in the third and two more in the fifth before the Nats go to the bullpen.
Urias gives the Dodgers five strong innings and the bullpen does the rest, as Blanton redeems himself with a scoreless eighth, and Jansen notches the save in the ninth for a 4-2 victory and a series win.
ALCS
7 of 9
The Matchup: (2) Boston Red Sox vs. (1) Texas Rangers
Season Series: SPLIT 3-3
Predicted Outcome: Red Sox 4, Rangers 2
A sweep in the ALDS gives the Red Sox a chance to reset their starting rotation as they line up Rick Porcello, David Price and Drew Pomeranz once again for the first three games of the ALCS.
Meanwhile, the Rangers were forced to use Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish to close out their five-game series, so it's Martin Perez making his first start of the postseason in Game 1. Hamels and Darvish follow, both on four days' rest, and it's up to the Texas offense to pick up some of the slack.
Perez does his best with five innings of two-run ball in the opener, but Porcello is brilliant once again, and the Red Sox tack three insurance runs in the seventh for an easy 5-1 victory.
Hamels-Price makes for a terrific matchup in Game 2, and Hamels gets the better of him this time when he pitches into the seventh and exits with a 4-2 lead.
However, the Red Sox tie things up on a two-run homer by Dustin Pedroia in the eighth, and the game goes into extra innings. After a scoreless 10th from both closers, the Rangers finally coming out on top with a walk-off blast from Rougned Odor in the 11th to even the series.
As the series shifts to Boston, Pomeranz gets the ball against Darvish, who did not pitch particularly well in his two ALDS starts despite his team winning both games.
The ALCS is a different story, as Darvish is at his best and piles up 12 strikeouts over seven inning before departing with a 4-1 lead. No late-game heroics are in the works this time, and the Rangers bullpen closes it out to take a 2-1 lead.
That's all she wrote for the Rangers, though.
Colby Lewis struggles once again in Game 4 and exits early, and A.J. Griffin runs into similar problems in long relief as the Red Sox have their second double-digit game of the postseason, and that's more than enough to back a sharp Eduardo Rodriguez.
Porcello follows with another quality start in a 5-3 victory as he gets the best of Perez once again, and the Red Sox head back to Boston with a chance to clinch the pennant.
In front of the home fans, Price shows why he was worth every penny of his $217 million deal when he turns in the best postseason performance of his career with eight innings of one-run ball and an even 10 strikeouts.
Craig Kimbrel makes things interesting when he gives up a home run to Carlos Beltran to lead off the ninth, trimming the Red Sox's lead to 4-2, but he's able to slam the door, and it's on to the Fall Classic for the Red Sox.
NLCS
8 of 9
The Matchup: (3) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (1) Chicago Cubs
Season Series: CHC 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Cubs 4, Dodgers 1
After knocking off the rival St. Louis Cardinals in four games in the NLDS, the Chicago Cubs will be able to tinker with the order of their starting rotation a bit if they so choose heading into the NLCS.
They'll go with Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in Game 1 and Game 2 again, respectively, but it will be Jake Arrieta in Game 3 and John Lackey in Game 4 this time around after manager Joe Maddon's experiment in the previous series didn't pay off.
The Dodgers were also able to make it out of the NLDS with only one start from ace Clayton Kershaw, setting him up for the Game 1 start as well.
Lester and Kershaw both live up to their reputations as two of the best in the business in the opener, and the Dodgers come out on top when Justin Turner takes Hector Rondon deep in the eighth inning for a 4-1 victory.
After being swept by the New York Mets in the NLCS a year ago, the inevitable doubt starts to creep in on the North Side, but that is quickly erased with a dominant Game 2.
Hendricks goes seven innings and allows just two hits and one run, and the offense crushes former Cub Rich Hill as he gives up six runs and doesn't make it out of the third inning. They keep pouring it on from there, and a 9-2 victory immediately shifts the momentum in the series.
Arrieta returns to the site of his 2015 no-hitter when the series shifts to Dodger Stadium, and he gets the best of Kenta Maeda with six scoreless innings and 13 strikeouts, exiting with a high pitch count.
The Cubs bullpen picks up the slack with three scoreless innings, and an Anthony Rizzo three-run homer proves to be the difference in a 5-3 victory.
Lackey takes the ball against the rookie Julio Urias in Game 4 in an interesting contrast of grizzled veteran and phenom on the rise, and both pitchers allow two runs over the first six innings.
Urias gives way to the bullpen from there, and the Cubs pounce, plating three runs in the seventh on five consecutive hits from the middle of the lineup.
Lackey pitches into the eighth before turning things over to Rondon and closer Aroldis Chapman, and the Cubs close out a 4-1 win.
That leaves a rematch of Lester vs. Kershaw in Game 5 with the Dodgers facing elimination, and this time around there's no slowing down the Cubs' momentum.
They scratch across two runs in the first before Kershaw settles in, then get to him for two more in the sixth when Kris Bryant turns around a fastball for a towering home run.
Lester does his thing again with seven innings of two-run ball, and it's Rondon and Chapman to slam the door once more to send the Cubs to their first World Series since 1945.
World Series
9 of 9
The Matchup: (1) Chicago Cubs vs. (2) Boston Red Sox
Season Series: DNP
Predicted Outcome: Cubs 4, Red Sox 2
"What a biased pick! Of course Joel picked the Cubs to win it—everybody knows he's a Cubs fan!"
This will officially be the first time I've put in writing that I think the Cubs are going to win the World Series, and it absolutely terrifies me to do it.
Heck, I won't even say those words out loud when talking to my buddies.
Years as a Cubs fan have ingrained me with the healthy combination of excessive superstition and cautious optimism, but it's hard not to look at this year's team and think big.
Maybe those inevitable finger-pointers are right—maybe this is a biased pick.
However, there's no denying that this Cubs team has been far and away the best in baseball this year and is probably the most dominant and complete team we've seen since the New York Yankees of the late 90s.
I'm not going to go into wild game-by-game predictions here.
The truth is, I'm not nearly good enough at math to count that many unhatched chickens, and I've already done enough damage by officially proclaiming the Cubs as World Series winners.
I truly believe this is the Cubs' year, though.
Not just from a sentimental standpoint, but from a talent standpoint and a leadership standpoint.
Bring it on, October.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.
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