Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Atlanta Falcons will be aiming for just their third straight-up win in their past 11 visits to New Orleans when they battle the NFC South rival Saints in a Week 3 Monday night matchup at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Falcons rediscovered their offense last week in a 35-28 win over Oakland as four-point road underdogs, tallying their highest point total since running up the score in a 48-21 win over Houston in Week 4 last year. The Saints search for their first SU win of the year and are 1-4 SU in their past five under the dome but have rewarded bettors with their recent 5-2 record against the spread.

Point spread: The Saints opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 52.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.4-23.1 Saints (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a force early on, throwing five touchdown strikes and racking up an impressive 365 passing yards per game, lifting the Falcons offense to No. 2 overall in the NFL. While the offense has dominated, though, the defense has struggled, surrendering 29.5 points per game and eight total touchdowns.

The Falcons look to have turned the corner with two straight SU road wins, ending a dismal 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS run. But Atlanta must find a way to contain the Saints, who have averaged 35.3 points per game over their past seven home contests.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints sit among the early league leaders in team offense but have yet to be rewarded with a SU win, and they suddenly find themselves on the verge of another lost season. According to website PredictionMachine.com, the Saints now have just a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

As expected, the Saints will only go as far as star pivot Drew Brees will take them. Brees has led New Orleans to 15 SU wins over the Falcons in 20 matchups since arriving in the Big Easy a decade ago, including a pair of victories last season.

The team will be without cornerback P.J. Williams, out indefinitely following last week's scary head injury, compromising a defense that surrendered 353 passing yards against New York.

Smart pick

The Saints have dominated Atlanta during the Drew Brees era and have tallied five straight ATS wins against NFC South opponents. But they need to recover from a lacklustre performance against the Giants, who maintained possession for over 34 minutes and forced New Orleans to punt on its first five possessions.

With Ryan under center, the Falcons bring an elite offense to New Orleans but must also tighten up on defense if they are to compete. Take the Saints both SU and ATS in a gunslinger duel between Brees and Ryan.

Betting trends

The Falcons are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games against the Saints.

The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against their division.

The Falcons are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.