Toronto Raptors Complete 2016-17 Preview
The story of the 2015-16 Toronto Raptors ended not with a funeral but rather a celebration of life.
As their first-ever Eastern Conference Finals berth wilted during their fourth double-digit loss of the series, chants of "Let's go Raptors!" rained down from the Air Canada Centre faithful. It was a fitting send-off for a team that produced the franchise's high marks in wins (56) and playoff success (10 victories) while sending two players to the All-Star Game for only the second time.
"It's a tremendous learning experience. ... Every situation was new for us," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey said, per Doug Smith of the Toronto Star.
With their initial exposure to the bright lights behind them, the Raptors enter 2016-17 eager to capitalize on mounting momentum. They may not have always resembled NBA elite, but only three clubs won more games, and just five had higher net efficiency ratings last season.
Has Toronto found a sustainable winning formula, or will this group go down as a one-hit wonder?
Biggest Offseason Move
The Raptors had a quiet offseason—or as quiet as one can have while handing out a five-year, $139 million pact.
That's because the recipient of that megadeal, DeMar DeRozan, never seemed like much of a flight risk. He played his first seven seasons north of the border and told anyone who would listen that he had no plans to relocate.
Despite being a two-time All-Star, the 27-year-old casts a polarizing shadow. He doesn't space the floor or create much for others, and his defensive effort comes and goes. But as Sportsnet's Michael Grange noted, DeRozan's ledger has more positives than negatives:
"He was one of only eight players in the NBA to average at least 23 points, four rebounds and four assists last season, a list that started with Stephen Curry and LeBron James and ended with Damian Lillard.
He's shown the determination to improve nearly every season and given that he shot a career-best 34 percent from three on the year and an encouraging 40 percent from deep in a three-month stretch beginning in January, there is reason to believe he's got more room to grow offensively. There is certainly upside defensively, too.
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Once the DeRozan signing was finished, Toronto spent the summer reshuffling its frontcourt.
The loss of energetic reserve big Bismack Biyombo stings, especially if No. 9 pick Jakob Poeltl transitions slowly. But the Raptors appear to have snagged one of the offseason's few bargains by getting Jared Sullinger for only $5.6 million, and their second first-round pick, Pascal Siakam, brings athleticism and a high motor.
Rotation Breakdown
The backcourt is already calibrated correctly: DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, Toronto's two returning All-Stars, paced last season's outfit in minutes, shots, points, assists and win shares. Reserve guards Cory Joseph and Norman Powell combine to bring feisty defense, perimeter sniping and shot creation. Sophomore Delon Wright remains unproven, but he looks like he wouldn't lose his footing in an emergency situation.
DeMarre Carroll, Toronto's top 2015 signing, limped through last season with plantar fasciitis and the aftermath of knee surgery. But he's a two-way combo forward when at full strength and a no-brainer starter. Jonas Valanciunas retains his starting gig after posting personal bests in points, boards and PER in 2015-16. Both Sullinger and Patrick Patterson are viable candidates at the 4, but Casey has already voiced his choice.
"I know how effective (Patrick Patterson) is coming off of the bench," Casey said, per Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun. "I know Jared has started (a lot of games). ... I don't want to guarantee anybody anything, but I like the combination of JV and Jared, unless they come up and just stink up the place."
| Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Jared Sullinger | Jonas Valanciunas |
| Cory Joseph | Norman Powell | Terrence Ross | Patrick Patterson | Jakob Poeltl |
| Delon Wright | Bruno Caboclo | Pascal Siakam | Lucas Nogueira |
Sullinger shouldn't get too comfortable, though. Patterson's superior long-distance touch and athleticism could prove better complements to Valanciunas' interior game. That said, both Sullinger and Patterson should fill significant roles given the lack of experience behind them.
Terrence Ross returns as the maddening water-faucet reserve. He has too much raw talent to sit, but he's a four-year veteran who still shoots his team into and out of games. And for those keeping track, former first-rounder Bruno Caboclo is now just "two years away" based on the initial assessment of ESPN's Fran Fraschilla.
Reasons for Confidence
The Raptors could be a popular pick for regression, but there is upside lying beneath the surface. Their offense revolves around high-volume, moderate-efficiency guards, and their defense is good-not-great. Their key core members aren't particularly young—Lowry and Carroll are 30; DeRozan and Patterson are 27—and their starting center offers neither floor spacing nor rim protection.
But all of that was true last season, when the team tallied more victories than everyone other than the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs. And Toronto did that while starting creaky veteran Luis Scola and watching Carroll and Valanciunas lose a combined 78 games to injury.
The Raptors' most utilized quintet featured Scola, James Johnson, Lowry, DeRozan and Valanciunas. That group was outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions over 327 minutes. But swap out Johnson and Scola for Carroll and Patterson—which the Raptors were able to do for only 16 minutes—and Toronto steamrolled opponents by 41.3 points per 100 possessions.
Granted, small-sample-size alarms are blaring at the sight of that statistic. But those five logged 95 playoff minutes together and nearly matched the champion Cavaliers' plus-5.8 net efficiency.
Now remember—that group had yet to go through the rigors of a deep playoff run together. It didn't have a fully healthy Carroll like this year's team should. And it had to hope Scola had something left, as opposed to finding out what else Sullinger can offer.
Valanciunas played his best basketball on the biggest stage, averaging 13.8 points and 10.8 boards during the postseason. DeRozan has done nothing to suggest he's exhausted his upside. Lowry could prove to be a young 30 since he wasn't a full-time starter early in his career and looks in better shape than ever.
Toronto is overflowing with prospects who could provide surprise lifts to the rotation.
"They've got tremendous talent, they've got great young guys," J.R. Smith said after Cleveland eliminated Toronto, per Chris O'Leary of the Toronto Star. "They've got two unbelievable All-Stars on that team, so it's a lot of upside."
Reasons for Concern
It's hard to find any areas where the Raptors will definitely improve in 2016-17.
Any steps Valanciunas takes could cost Lowry and/or DeRozan volume and would mostly come at the offensive end—which is already Toronto's best side. Even if Carroll is healthy, his past success came in pass-happy offenses, which the Raptors do not have. Sullinger isn't a needle-mover and may not be a better fit than Patterson. Toronto's youth might all spend the campaign tethered to the bench.
That doesn't mean the Raptors will fall back, but they could have trouble moving forward. And that's a potentially major issue given how the East appears to be rising around them, as Pro Basketball Talk's Kurt Helin noted:
"The East is getting better—it's going to be harder to win games. The 48-win Celtics added Al Horford to the mix. The Indiana Pacers added Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young, they should take a step forward. Stan Van Gundy's Pistons are improving. So it goes through large swaths of the East. Even if the Raptors are as good a team as they were a season ago, reaching 56 wins again would be a tall task.
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Treading water won't be enough. No one is scoffing at 56 wins, but those Raptors needed all seven games to survive both the first and second rounds of the 2016 postseason. And even with two victories, Toronto was outscored in the Conference Finals 635-542.
Toronto could be just another face in the shadow-contender crowd.
Predictions
The Raptors ran hot more than cold last season, but they spent time at both ends of the spectrum. They nearly stumbled over a first-round hurdle for the third straight year, and had that happened, their core may not have held together during the offseason.
But Toronto is back with second-round-or-bust talent and all the key ingredients of its successful recipe. As long as Lowry and DeRozan avoid the injury report again, the Raptors should once again battle for the East's No. 2 seed. They've lifted their win total during each of Casey's five seasons at the helm and set franchise marks for victories in each of the last three, per Bleacher Report Insights.
If the defense comes together, the Raptors can separate themselves from the rest of the hopefuls. If the offense must carry the load again, 56 wins will be tough to replicate.
Between the East's collective rise and the defensive damage done by Biyombo's departure, Toronto won't match last season's success. The Raptors aren't in danger of a dramatic drop, but they'll lose a spot or two in the conference standings.
- Final Record: 51-31
- Division Standing: Second in Atlantic
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- B/R Leaguewide Power Rankings Prediction: Seventh
Unless noted otherwise, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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