No Front-Runner for Best Point Guard in Elite 2017 NBA Draft Class

The NBA appears one season away from receiving a new injection of exciting point guard talent.

That's right, we may potentially witness a point guard go No. 1 and No. 2 overall in the 2017 draft. We could see three of them go top four or five. How about six in the lottery? It doesn't look out of the question. 

Markelle Fultz	Washington	6'4"	Freshman
Dennis Smith Jr.	North Carolina State	6'3"	Freshman
Frank Ntilikina	France	6'5"	1998
De'Aaron Fox	Kentucky	6'4"	Freshman
Lonzo Ball	UCLA	6'5"	Freshman
Edmond Sumner	Xavier	6'5"	Sophomore

Fultz vs. Smith

Washington's Markelle Fultz and North Carolina State's Dennis Smith Jr. both look like viable No. 1 overall contenders. According to a recent poll I conducted among various scouts, executives and media members, Fultz may be viewed as the preseason favorite to go first in the draft. 

But Smith received votes as well. Had he not suffered a torn ACL last summer, he could have easily entered this season as the No. 1 point guard and overall prospect.

At 6'3", 195 pounds, Smith's strength and explosive burst remind of Derrick Rose. You couldn't miss Rose's upside coming out of Memphis—Smith's is similarly obvious. He's going to open eyes with electric change of direction, playmaking and powerful finishes you don't typically see from point guards. 

While it's tremendous athletic ability that fuels monster potential, his skill level is what suggests he'll reach it. He's a nightmare cover off the dribble with the quickness and handle to break down defenses and create high-percentage shots. Dangerous in the lane, thanks to a sound floater and the springs to launch himself above the rim, he's also a capable pull-up shooter, though improving his jumper will likely be priority No. 1 out of college.

Yet, while Fultz probably loses an athletic competition to Smith, he checks in as the more complete player with extra length (6'9 ¾" wingspan, per DraftExpress) and no injury history. The Huskies' new lead guard isn't exactly a stiff, either. At 6'4", he's still a strong athlete with plenty of size, bounce and wiggle.

Recently named MVP of the FIBA Americas Championship, Fultz flashed the entire package of scoring, passing, defense and command. He's developed a feel for what buttons to press and when to press them. Between his dribble creativity, setup instincts and shot-making, Fultz appears proficient operating and executing out of all situations (pick-and-rolls, isolation, transition, off-the-ball work). 

Streak shooting and some occasional sloppy play will make it onto the scouting report, but assuming those are the only notable weaknesses that hold true, they won't cause much hesitation from general managers.

International Wild Card

Neither will the fact that Frank Ntilikina plays for Strasbourg IG overseas. With two FIBA tournaments, a Jordan Brand Classic and Basketball Without Borders Global Camp under his belt, scouts have been able to see the Frenchman develop since 2014. And he'll still only be 18 years old by the 2017 draft.

Ntilikina isn't as physically intimidating or flashy as Fultz and Smith, but he plays with superior poise and control. He's cool and unselfish, admirable traits for a point guard. Having watched and spoken to him briefly last February in Toronto at B.W.B., it's worth noting Ntilikina oozes coachability and humility. 

Intangibles aside, he's a polished facilitator with 6'5" size, long arms and a competent stroke. He gets some lift off one foot as well, just with less force than Smith and Fultz. 

Ntilikina's foot speed and length also project favorably on defense—but not to the level of De'Aaron Fox's. Kentucky's new point guard may create more noise this season when the Wildcats don't have the ball. 

The Elite Field

Fox has blazing lateral quickness and forces turnovers with snapping hands. NBA coaches will no doubt value the pressure he can apply to opposing ball-handlers. 

Offensively, he isn't the same scoring threat as Smith and Fultz, and he's not as well-rounded as Ntilikina. Fox's jumper and one-on-one shot creativity also need work and are weaknesses that could lead to freshman inefficiency.

Yet, those are holes in his game he can fill over time. You can't teach Fox's size, athleticism or motor, while his ball-handling and playmaking instincts bode well for his potential as an NBA distributor. Fox's blow-by speed and body control off the dribble should translate to points in the paint at every level. He'll have the chance to develop into a feisty two-way point guard if his perimeter game ever comes around. 

UCLA's Lonzo Ball will face similar challenges, but he's also the group's—and arguably the country's—No. 1 passer. Compared to Fox, his shooting mechanics are messier, making it harder to believe Ball will ever become a reliable outside threat. But spectacular vision should buy him time with NBA evaluators. He sees everything, often seconds before it happens. 

High school analysts have been raving for years: ESPN.com's Jeff Borzello expects Ball to immediately become the top passer in college basketball. Jerry Meyer of 247Sports called him the best passer he's ever seen. Rivals' Eric Bossi once referred to him as the most gifted passer he ever scouted. It's not even just vision—Ball has this uncanny ability to flick his wrist and sling bullets through tight spaces or precision dimes the full length of the court. 

Other than his jumper, questions about his skinny frame and so-so explosiveness—which could limit Ball at the rim in the half-court—push him below Fultz and Smith on the preseason rankings. It doesn't negate Ball's pro potential, though. NBA teams are still sure to covet his quarterback presence, something scouts will want to see more of from Xavier's Edmond Sumner.

A breakout sophomore candidate, Sumner turned heads last season with showtime athleticism and 6'5" size, a combo that always drives NBA upside at the position. An open-floor weapon, he picks up easy buckets in transition and puts pressure on the defense in the half-court. 

The shifty Sumner gets to the basket off screens, hesitation dribbles and a quick first step in isolation (7.7 free-throw attempts per 40 minutes). His ability to consistently find the lane naturally leads to playmaking opportunities, which he's shown he can capitalize on, particularly as a drive-and-kick setup man. 

Like Fox and Ball, he'll have to make some strides this year as a shooter, especially since he turns 21 years old in December and just shot 30.1 percent from three. But it's still a correctable weakness this early, while the 25 triples he hit in 2015-16 did highlight shot-making capability. A more accurate jumper and disciplined floor game could help propel Sumner into June's lottery discussion.

The Great Debate

Fultz and Smith won't need as much help, while Ntilikina, Fox and Ball should find themselves in the follow-up tier with Sumner not far behind (based on his progress). 

These players are bound to create some interesting debate within scouting departments for teams drafting early in 2017, assuming a bunch will already be invested in floor generals—the Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns, Orlando Magic and Los Angeles Lakers will likely have the early picks, yet all but Orlando also have plenty of internal point guard options.

After next year's draft, I'd expect a few organizations to wind up rostering two big-name point guards (an established one plus one of these future rookies), given the unlikelihood general managers pass on their potential star power just to avoid doubling up at the position and creating a short-term logjam. 

For teams without a strong option at point guard, this becomes a good year to miss the playoffs. Assuming these organizations draft relatively early, the Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks could find themselves in position to finally add a new franchise floor general. 

Either way, expect the NBA's most competitive position to get stronger after this new wave of talent crashes the league one year from now.