History Suggests Arsenal Need to Win Their Champions League Group This Season

On Tuesday, Arsenal face what will surely be their biggest test of the Champions League group stage. Paris Saint-Germain lie in wait, with the two European giants favourites to progress from Group A.

History suggests the Gunners need a positive result at the Parc des Princes—their failure to top the group in recent years has been instrumental in their inability to reach the tournament’s latter stages. 

Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger appears to see PSG as the team most likely to top Group A, per Mattias Karen of ESPN FC:

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If you look at their record against English teams you become cautious because they have done extremely well against Chelsea, against Manchester. I believe we have to be on our toes and prepare very well.

Maybe Paris Saint-Germain are the favourites [in the group]. They have big ambition. But we want to qualify of course and if possible finish first in the group. We start in Paris, so that will be a very interesting test. Because they are a team that has absolutely unlimited financial potential and that have bought really well. But of course we want to challenge that. We'll see.

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The north London outfit must challenge PSG’s supremacy if they are serious about making a credible tilt at winning the Champions League.

Their recent record is not good. In each of the last six years, Arsenal have been eliminated at the first knockout stage. Their exit at the round of 16 has become customary, and there does seem to be a relationship with their performance in the competition proper's first stage; in five of those six years, Arsenal have finished second in their group.

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After last season’s exit against Barcelona, Wenger launched an impassioned defence of his record in the Champions League. Per Sami Mokbel of MailOnline: 

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I'll give you the stats. We have to consider it game by game. You look at the positives and negatives and prepare for the next one. 

We have gone out against top sides, who went on and won the Champions League after.

Only on one occasion we were completely guilty, against Monaco. The others were against Bayern and Barcelona twice. 

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Wenger has a point. Arsenal have faced some top sides in Europe’s elite competition. However, that’s largely their own fault. Their consistent failure to emerge as group-stage winners means they’re always more likely to face one of Europe’s stronger sides.

It’s simple: Finishing top tends to lead to a more favourable draw. The one year they did win their group yet were still eliminated at the first knockout stage, 2011/12, they were somewhat unfortunate to be drawn against AC Milan. Nevertheless, they could have still progressed, but a first-leg, 4-0 capitulation left them with an insurmountable task.

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Arsenal’s golden spell in the competition was between 2004 and 2009. That shouldn’t come as any great surprise, as in those years, Wenger could call upon many of the players who made up 2003/04’s Invincibles—one of the greatest teams in the history of the Premier League. In fact, the Gunners should arguably have experienced more success on the European front with such talent at this disposal.

Although 2003/04 is justifiably remembered for Arsenal’s remarkable unbeaten season in the Premier League, it should rightfully be recalled for a similarly successful European campaign.

The Gunners had everything they needed to win the Champions League that year, and showed that when they won their group relatively comfortably. However, they were eliminated in the quarter-finals by Claudio Ranieri’s Chelsea via a heartbreaking Wayne Bridge goal.

Two years later, they went even closer than that, running all the way to the final. Once again, they won their group. Although they could not overcome Barcelona in the Paris showpiece, the Gunners demonstrated that when they thrive early on, that momentum can propel them deeper into the competition.

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That’s where a club of Arsenal’s size need to be. It’s telling that they have not reached the semi-finals since 2009. It was around that time when Arsenal lost the last of the Invincibles who had been propping up their squad during the parsimonious years after the move to the Emirates Stadium in 2006.

The club’s finances are now more secure, and they have been able to strengthen the squad accordingly. Marquee players such as Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez have been added to ensure Arsenal have star billing one again. 

The club professes to harbour genuine ambitions of challenging for Europe’s biggest prizes. There is none bigger than the Champions League. It’s also the biggest gap remaining on Wenger’s CV—he would surely not feel his managerial career is complete until he has lifted that elusive trophy.

This year could be his last chance to do that. Wenger’s contract with Arsenal expires next summer, and he’ll be aware this could be his final crack at the European Cup.

Tuesday's game will be massive. Although it’s important not to discount either FC Basel or Ludogorets Razgrad, it’s clear the matches between Arsenal and PSG will play a significant part in determining who wins the group. 

The good news for the Gunners is they will encounter a PSG side struggling for form. Their last two Ligue 1 matches have seen them lose 3-1 to AS Monaco and draw 1-1 with AS Saint-Etienne. This has placed their new manager, Unai Emery, under considerable pressure.

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After the Saint-Etienne game, director of football Patrick Kluivert was forced to address the media about the forthcoming Arsenal match. He said, per Jonathan Johnson for ESPN FC:

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We are not happy. Things were better in the second half.

Arsenal will be a completely different match. There will not be five defenders. It was difficult to breach this wall. There will be a lot more space to play.

Unai Emery must be given time and yes, of course, he will be given that. Producing immediate results is not simple.

Is Arsenal a decisive match? No. It is an important one but not decisive.

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Perhaps not decisive but certainly influential. The fact it’s the first game of the group stage also gives it particular weight. The winners will justifiably feel confident of progression and earning top spot—the losers will be left harbouring concerns about their European campaign.

It’s vital Arsenal break their habit of European underachievement. If they can beat PSG in Paris and go on to win the group, they’ll stand a significantly better chance of achieving that.

James McNicholas is Bleacher Report's lead Arsenal correspondent and will be following the club from a London base throughout 2016/17. Follow him on Twitter here.