San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs aim to extend their recent dominance at Arrowhead Stadium when they welcome the division-rival San Diego Chargers to town Sunday for a Week 1 NFL matchup.

The Chiefs reversed an early-season swoon to finish with an 11-5 straight-up record in 2015, also ending a 22-year losing streak in the postseason with a 30-0 rout of Houston on Wild Card Weekend. The Chargers are coming off a dismal 4-12 campaign that featured just one road win but tallied a respectable 8-8 record against the spread.

Point spread: Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.3-10.2 Chiefs (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

San Diego was a pleasant surprise to bettors down the stretch, going 5-1 ATS in its final six games, including its only road success, a 31-25 win in Jacksonville. The Chargers also earned a 4-1 ATS record while pegged as underdogs of five or more points.

With veteran Philip Rivers under center, the Chargers are always a threat to pile up points, tallying 26 or more on six occasions last year. The additions of receivers Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin also provide Rivers with experienced targets downfield.

However, it remains to be seen whether the defense can continue its stingy late-season performance, allowing just 18.1 points per game in its final five games, including a 10-3 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs ride a six-game SU winning streak at Arrowhead and have dominated the Chargers of late with four straight SU wins, including three victories by a margin of seven or more points.

Kansas City was simply dominant in the second half last season, winning its final 10 regular-season contests, and is an impressive 7-1 in its past eight games against AFC West rivals.

Team defense also tightened up considerably in their final preseason contests, surrendering just 197.5 total yards per game in wins over Green Bay and Chicago. The Chiefs defense has also prevented a Philip Rivers touchdown pass in each of their past three meetings.

Smart pick

Mired in an eight-game SU losing streak against AFC West rivals, it would be no surprise if the Chargers battled nerves ahead of their date in Kansas City.

While San Diego has managed to cover in its past three games against divisional rivals, a trio of blowout preseason losses to Tennessee, Minnesota, and San Francisco by a combined 40 points provides no confidence that this team has turned the corner.

Look for the Chiefs to hand the Chargers yet another divisional loss and end their current ATS losing streak.

Betting trends

The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Chiefs.

The total has gone under in the Chargers' last four games against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.