NASCAR at Richmond 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Federated Auto Parts 400

Richmond International Raceway’s final race should be called The Bottom of the Ninth 400—this is the 26th and final race of the regular season, and several drivers’ playoff hopes are in their final at-bats.

A year ago, the most thrilling part of the race was watching Aric Almirola pick his way through the field as he desperately drove to earn a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. He needed a win, drove like a winner but couldn’t get there in the end.

We’ll see much the same Saturday night when Jamie McMurray and Ryan Newman gun for that final playoff spot on the Grid.

As it stands, McMurray has a seven-point lead over Newman. That will be the race-within-the-race to watch.

Chase drivers have worries too, none more pressing that Kevin Harvick’s pit crew.

And who knows? Maybe somebody like Kasey Kahne or Alex Bowman can win from off the Chase Grid and render anything McMurray and Newman do a moot point.

Read on for this week’s preview of the Federated Auto Parts 400.

By the Numbers: Richmond International Raceway

Chet Strange/Associated Press

Federated Auto Parts 400

Place: Richmond International Raceway

Date: Saturday, September 10, 2016

Green flag: 7:43 p.m. ET, NBCSN

Distance: 400 laps, 300 miles

Defending winner: Matt Kenseth

The Chase Grid

Jerry Markland/Getty Images

1. Brad Keselowski

2. Kyle Busch

3. Kevin Harvick

4. Carl Edwards

5. Denny Hamlin

6. Martin Truex Jr.

7. Matt Kenseth

8. Jimmie Johnson

9. Joey Logano

10. Kurt Busch

11. Kyle Larson

12. Tony Stewart

13. Chris Buescher

14. Chase Elliott

15. Austin Dillon

16. Jamie McMurray

The Chase Bubble Watch

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Elliott, +24

Dillon, +16

McMurray, +7

---

Newman, -7

Kahne, -44

Ryan Blaney, -69

Biggest Storylines

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

Who Will Earn the Final Chase Spot: Jamie McMurray or Ryan Newman?

Chip Ganassi Racing would love nothing more than to have its two drivers—Kyle Larson and McMurray—locked in the Chase.

Larson’s good after his thrilling win in Michigan. McMurray, on the other hand, has lost ground the past few weeks. At one point he appeared to be a playoff certainty, but by being seven points ahead of Newman, the only thing certain is uncertainty.

"[Getting two in] was the goal at the beginning of the season," Ganassi said, per Bob Pockrass of ESPN.com. "We still have some work to do. We got Jamie in [at this point], but just by the skin of his teeth. We've got to work on that with two [races] to go now. ... That's what we do. That's what we try to do every day."

As hard as it will be, McMurray’s concern will lie with where Newman is at all times. Some may argue both McMurray and Newman need to drive their races and not worry where the other stands.

This is true to a point, but they don’t need to best the field; they only need to be better than each other.

In the case of Newman, he must be eight spots better than McMurray. McMurray has a buffer. He can finish six spots worse than Newman and still head to Chicagoland as a yellow-striped car.

"From where we started our year to where our cars are now, we've made a lot of progress," McMurray said. "Props to those guys. ... We've just got to work hard to get the best finishes we can the next two weeks and we both can get into the Chase."

Should Kevin Harvick Worry?

While drivers like McMurray and Newman worry about making the Chase, a driver like Harvick worries about what will become of him in the Chase.

There’s no question he has a top-five car every week. He drives a top-five race just about ever week too. But it’s the volatility of his pit crew that sets the No. 4 team back light years.

“I'm over being a cheerleader," he told NBC after the race. "Those guys get paid a lot of money to perform on pit road. Cheerleading hasn't been working so you have to get after them on pit road and do your job."

Ever been to a cocktail party where you know that there’s this latent animosity toward a few people, but everybody remains civil? Then after a couple of white zinfandels, the cheeks get rosy and the eyes get squinty. Then, from the opposite side of the room, someone belts out, “You know something!? I’m over being a cheerleader!”

In this case, Harvick is 100 percent correct. He should have won several more races this year, and he should have won the Southern 500 by a South Carolina mile. Instead he had to muscle his way back from 12th to second.

Harvick said:

"

It's just the same old thing. You get in position where you bring a dominant car. The guys in the shop and the guys in the garage are doing a great job, and the guys on pit road are doing a terrible job. You get in a position to win races, and they continually step on their toes and don't make it happen. You're not going to win races like that.

"

The No. 4 pit crew is capable of great things. Maybe Sunday night’s race magnified its weakness more because of the broken pit gun. Thankfully, Danica Patrick’s team has no shot at winning anything this side of Mars, so the No. 4 team swiped its gun.

The stakes heighten in the Chase. Harvick wasn’t mad he lost the Southern 500. He was mad because these mistakes will cost him and his team a chance at Homestead.

It’s a championship car when all the dominoes line up. If nothing else, these pit-road gaffes illustrate what a team game NASCAR—and all of motorsport—really is.

Dark-Horse Pick: Kasey Kahne

Wade Payne/Associated Press

If Kasey Kahne wins this race, that would smear paint all over the Chase canvas.

A win from Kahne bumps McMurray off the Grid and into the Never. Problem is, Kahne hasn’t even led a lap this year—not a lap at RIR, a lap anywhere.

"You can lead a lap easily," Kahne said in Bob Pockrass’ ESPN.com story. "You don't even have to be fast to lead a lap, and we haven't led a lap. ... It's terrible to not lead a lap in this series, as good a team as we have and a company we race for. ... We need to figure out a lot of things."

Kahne finished fourth in the spring race at Richmond. He was the only driver in the top seven who hadn’t led at least one lap. That said, the No. 5 car has some speed at Richmond. He proved that a few months ago.

This is it. In 2014, he won the second-to-last race of the regular season at Atlanta to make the Chase (consequently his last win), so you know he’s capable of it. Then again, maybe with this latest aero package, he’s not.

As much as we’ll be watching the McMurray-Newman bout, watching Kahne navigate traffic will be just as thrilling.

And the Winner Is...Matt Kenseth

Terry Renna/Associated Press

A year ago, Matt Kenseth led 88 percent of the laps. If you get your abacus out, that’s 352 of the 400 laps to win over Kyle Busch and Joey Logano.

"It's good for all of our confidence, especially mine,” Kenseth said after his win a year ago. "I felt horrible wrecking that car [last week at Darlington]—it looked like it was the first time I ever drove a race car last week. ... I was glad that I didn't make any mistakes tonight and did get a win."

Kenseth could use some extra confidence heading into the Chase. He finished 13th at Michigan and sixth in the Southern 500, so you get the sense he’s gaining altitude. Along with his other Joe Gibbs amigos, he is trending in a scary-good direction.

Kenseth took seventh in the spring, finishing the worst out of all his teammates. Martin Truex Jr., the tangential ally of JGR, finished ninth.

This race will be a harbinger of Chase fortune for JGR with Kenseth leading the charge heading to Illinois.