Will Nico Hulkenberg's Near-Miss at the Belgian GP Affect His Career Prospects?

Back in 2014, Nico Hulkenberg responded to an ongoing barrage of questions from journalists about his lack of top-three finishes in Formula One saying, "I'm not thinking about the podium as much as you guys are."

But it certainly must have been in the back of his mind during Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix, when he emerged from a chaotic start in second place, behind only Nico Rosberg, the eventual winner.

With championship leader Lewis Hamilton starting from the back of the grid and Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Raikkonen and Max Verstappen colliding at the first corner, it seemed that maybe, finally, Hulkenberg’s podium drought was coming to an end. Instead, through no fault of his own, he finished in fourth place—the third time in his career he has just missed the champagne celebration.

Charles Coates/Getty Images

Hulkenberg, a 29-year-old German, is one of several talented drivers who has withered in the midfield in recent years. Along with the likes of Sergio Perez and Romain Grosjean, Hulkenberg has never had a chance to race at the front of the grid, despite his obvious skill behind the wheel.

German magazine Auto Motor und Sport reported that Hulkenberg nearly ended up driving for Ferrari in 2014 (via NBC Sports), but he has instead bounced around from Williams to Force India to Sauber and back to Force India. None of those moves were necessarily considered a promotion at the time.

As each season passes, you get the increasing feeling that without a head-turning result or three, Hulkenberg will never get the call to one of the front-running teams. He did have one big result in 2015—although it did not come in F1—when he won the 24 Hours of Le Mans. 

Earlier this year, though, he said that victory in the world’s most famous sports car race hasn’t had a noticeable impact on his F1 career prospects.

An F1 podium might.

In Belgium, Hulkenberg opened a lead of about six seconds over third-place Daniel Ricciardo by Lap 6, when the safety car was called to deal with the aftermath of Kevin Magnussen’s heavy crash at Raidillon. Thankfully, the Dane walked away from his destroyed car.

With the safety car deployed, Force India called Hulkenberg into the pits, while both Rosberg and Ricciardo stayed out, leaving the German third but with a pit stop in-hand over the two cars ahead of him. He was, in effect, leading the race.

Then, with a crane on the circuit to repair damage to the tyre wall and Armco barrier, race director Charlie Whiting decided to red-flag the grand prix. The cars then returned to the pits before a safety car restart, giving Rosberg and Ricciardo a free stop and taking away Hulkenberg’s advantage.

Speaking with Sky Sports (h/t ESPN F1's Lewis Larkam), Hulkenberg expressed his annoyance with the red flag appearing when it did:

"

On [the] super-soft tyres it was going actually well, I was behind Nico. He was pulling away from me a little bit but I was pulling away from the people behind me, which was really important at that stage of the race.

Unfortunately the red flag came and neutralised the race, which was a bit frustrating at that moment. I would have preferred not to have that red flag but that's racing.

"

Chris Amon, who died earlier in August, was remembered as one of the unluckiest drivers in F1 history and possibly the most talented never to win a race (he also won at Le Mans, with Bruce McLaren in 1966). Hulkenberg’s legacy may not be at the same level, but he is definitely one of the unluckiest drivers, at least on the current grid.

Often a chaotic race with crashes, safety cars and restarts benefit the smaller teams, as there are more opportunities for them to move up the field.

In Belgium, the early mayhem helped Hulkenberg. He squirted through the inside at La Source, while several other drivers were forced wide, to evade the Ferraris and Verstappen’s Red Bull.

With the safety car and subsequent red flag, though, not only did Hulkenberg lose the lead he had built on Ricciardo and his extra pit stop, but it also allowed Hamilton to jump up to fifth place at the restart, with just Fernando Alonso as a buffer between the champ and Hulkenberg. From there, the outcome was inevitable.

Hulkenberg was able to hold Hamilton up for a few laps, but the champion eventually flew past on the Kemmel straight on Lap 18, leaving the German fourth.

LOIC VENANCE/Getty Images

Force India have a strong car this year. They passed Williams for fourth place in the constructors' standings in Belgium, but it’s still not every day Hulkenberg or Perez have a shot at the podium. When they do have a chance, they need to grab the opportunity in a death grip and hold on.

They were never going to beat the Mercs at Spa. But had the team left Hulkenberg out until the red flag, maintaining his track position in front of Ricciardo, he might have had a chance to hold off the Red Bull. Of course, they had no way of knowing that at the time.

Those seemingly small, split-second decisions can have far-reaching effects. There is no real difference between third and fourth place, other than someone deciding a long time ago that the top three finishers, rather than two or four, would be celebrated with prizes in athletic events.

But without the visibility that comes with a place on the podium, it will be difficult for Hulkenberg to vault ahead of regular top-three finishers like Verstappen, Ricciardo or Valtteri Bottas on the big teams' wish lists.

In Montreal last year, Hulkenberg told me he felt lucky just to be in F1. In an interview with the official F1 website before the start of the 2016 season, he echoed that sentiment, saying, "I am very happy where I am. Force India is a cool team. And dreaming is a dangerous thing in F1—especially dreaming in red."

And yet, those dreams remain. Hulkenberg has been a champion everywhere he has raced, from Formula 3 to GP2 to Le Mans; he just hasn't had the car yet in F1 to reach those same heights.

Now he is caught in a kind of vicious circle, where he needs results to catch the attention of the better teams. But he needs a better car to get those results. Belgium was an opportunity to show those teams that he deserves a bump up the grid—he just wasn't quite able to grasp it.

Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained first-hand.

Matthew Walthert is an F1 columnist for Bleacher Report UK. He has also written for VICE, FourFourTwo and the Globe and Mail. Follow him on Twitter:

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