Updated 2016 MLB Playoff Odds with 5 Weeks Remaining

Roughly five weeks are left in the 2016 MLB regular season, and while the playoff picture is taking shape, there is still a lot to be decided before October.

In the American League, 10 legitimate contenders remain. The Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers have a strong hold on their respective division leads, but the AL East is a three-team race, and the two wild-card spots are wide open.

The National League picture is not as congested, but eight clubs are still in position to reach the postseason. The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are locks to fill two of the five spots. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants both look like good bets as well, regardless of who wins the NL West. That leaves four teams to battle it out for the final wild-card spot.

What follows is a look at each club's chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:

• Current standings
• Recent performance
• Injury concerns

So, with the regular season set to wrap up on Oct. 2, here is an updated division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all the remaining contenders from where they stood one week ago.

AL East

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Contenders

Toronto Blue Jays (75-57, 2 games up in division)

The Blue Jays' potent offense has piled up 45 runs over the past seven days, led by AL MVP candidate Josh Donaldson, who is 10-for-27 with six home runs and 11 RBI during that span.

The Blue Jays have moved into first place in the AL East in the process, despite a rough patch from the starting rotation. So long as the pitching doesn't continue to falter, they should have a real shot at nabbing the division title and avoiding the one-and-done Wild Card Round.

Postseason Chances: 89 percent (+4 percent)

Boston Red Sox (73-59, 2 game up in WC)

At 2-5 in their last seven games, the Red Sox are trending in the wrong direction as the calendar gets set to turn over to September.

Rough starts from Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez continue to highlight the inconsistency of the starting rotation behind Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello, though lefties David Price and Drew Pomeranz have both pitched well of late.

They just need to play two games over .500 the rest of the way to finish with 90 wins, which should be good enough to punch their ticket to the postseason.

Postseason Chances: 88 percent (-4 percent)

Baltimore Orioles (72-60, 1 game up in WC)

A 19-9 month of June continues to prop the Orioles up in the standings, as they've gone 25-29 with a minus-44 run differential since the start of July.

Kevin Gausman is working on a 13.2-inning scoreless streak, stepping up to lead the rotation just as Dylan Bundy has hit a bump in the road and Chris Tillman is sidelined with a shoulder injury. The thunder of the lineup will keep them in the mix, but it's hard to overlook their two months of mediocrity.

Postseason Chances: 34 percent (-1 percent)

New York Yankees (68-63, 3.5 games back in WC)

They're still a long shot to extend their season into October, but the Yankees continue to hang around. If nothing else, their post-deadline relevance should garner Joe Girardi some Manger of the Year support.

This Gary Sanchez fella seems like the real deal, too, folks.

Postseason Chances: 4 percent (+2 percent)

Non-Contenders

Tampa Bay Rays (56-75)

AL Central

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Contenders

Cleveland Indians (75-56, 4.5 games up in division)

The Indians have gone an impressive 41-23 at home this season and just started a 10-game homestand with back-to-back wins against the Minnesota Twins.

After Josh Tomlin went 0-5 with an 11.48 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in 26.2 innings in August, the team may need to consider making a change in the rotation down the stretch. However, that appears to be the only glaring hole for a team that some consider the favorite on the AL side.

Postseason Chances: 95 percent (+1 percent)

Detroit Tigers (71-61, 1 game back in WC)

The good news: The Tigers still have seven games left against the Indians team they are chasing in the AL Central standings. The bad news: They've gone 1-11 with a minus-43 run differential against Cleveland so far this season.

That being said, the Tigers have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and suddenly boast one of the better starting rotations in the league thanks to the young duo of Matt Boyd (25) and Daniel Norris (23) stepping into the rotation and Anibal Sanchez remembering how to pitch.

A wild-card spot is a real possibility, as they're trending in the right direction.

Postseason Chances: 23 percent (+2 percent)

Kansas City Royals (69-63, 3 games back in WC)

There's no hotter team in baseball right now than the Royals, who have gone 18-5 in their last 23 games, but they'll need to stay hot the rest of the way to make up for their early-season struggles.

Ian Kennedy (5 GS, 3-0, 1.11 ERA) and Danny Duffy (6 GS, 5-1, 2.51 ERA) were as good a one-two punch as any in baseball in August, and coupled with a dominant bullpen that is getting set to welcome back Wade Davis, the Royals could once again ride their pitching staff into October.

Postseason Chances: 26 percent (+4 percent)

Non-Contenders

Chicago White Sox (63-68)

Minnesota Twins (49-83)

AL West

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Contenders

Texas Rangers (79-54, 8.5 games up in division)

The Rangers continue to be the class of the AL West and arguably the entire AL as they push for the No. 1 seed and the right to host their way to the World Series.

Consecutive quality starts by Derek Holland since his return from the disabled list have given them yet another significant addition to go along with deadline pickups Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran. At this point, they appear to have the division title all but locked up.

Postseason Chances: 97 percent (+5 percent)

Houston Astros (70-62, 2 games back in WC)

Outside of the streaking Kansas City Royals, there's probably not a hotter team in the AL than the Astros, who have gone 9-2 in their last 11 games.

They've made up 4.5 games in the wild-card standings during that span and passed the Mariners to move into second in the AL West standings.

Alex Bregman (125 PA, .827 OPS, 9 2B, 5 HR, 20 RBI) and Yulieski Gurriel (7-for-18, 2 2B) have provided just the spark the team was looking for offensively in the month of August, while the starting rotation has looked better of late.

Postseason Chances: 27 percent (+14 percent)

Seattle Mariners (68-64, 4 games back in WC)

The Mariners are now 2-8 in their last 10 games on the heels of a 14-4 stretch that had them looking like one of the best teams in baseball.

This stands out as the most dramatic shift in postseason probability.

Call it the perfect storm of a red-hot team going ice cold, fellow division foes subsequently getting hot, a crowded AL wild-card race and probably being a bit too high on them to begin with.

With 16 of their 30 remaining games coming against the Angels, Athletics and Twins, they're not cooked yet, but they'll need to right the ship quickly to have a chance.

Postseason Chances: 19 percent (-25 percent)

Non-Contenders

Los Angeles Angels (58-74)

Oakland Athletics (57-75)

NL East

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Contenders

Washington Nationals (77-55, 9 games up in division)

With the second-largest division lead in baseball and a favorable schedule the rest of the way, the Nationals are a lock for the postseason.

They have 15 games left against the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks, as well as six games against a struggling Marlins team, so it should be smooth sailing into October. 

Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+0 percent)

New York Mets (68-64, 2.5 games back in WC)

The Mets continue to be plagued by injuries.

Neil Walker has missed the past three games with the same lower-back issue that cost him time earlier this month, and Steven Matz might not throw another pitch in 2016, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

And yet, they've still gone an NL-best 5-2 over the past week and closed to within 2.5 games of the second wild-card spot. They still have a lot of talent—it's simply a matter of overcoming the injury bug that has hurt them all year.

Postseason Chances: 24 percent (+2 percent)

Miami Marlins (67-65, 3.5 games back in WC)

The Marlins are 7-12 in their last 19 games and 7-9 since losing Giancarlo Stanton to what may wind up being a season-ending groin strain.

The pitching staff has managed to hold it together despite being without Wei-Yin Chen and Adam Conley, posting a 3.88 ERA in August. The Marlins' postseason chances are quickly fading, though.

They have a tough road ahead with 17 games against the Nationals (6), Mets (5), Los Angeles Dodgers (3) and Indians (3) still on the schedule, as well as seven with a Braves team that they're 4-8 against so far this year.

Postseason Chances: 7 percent (-8 percent)

Non-Contenders

Philadelphia Phillies (60-72)

Atlanta Braves (49-83)

NL Central

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Contenders

Chicago Cubs (84-47, 14 games up in division)

The Cubs might be playing their best baseball of the season right now, and that's saying something.

They've gone 21-6 during the month of August, with the pitching staff surrendering a stingy 2.57 ERA and the offense plating 5.07 runs per game.

A 16-15 record the rest of the way would get them to 100 wins for the first time since 1935 and just the sixth time in franchise history.

Postseason Chances: 99 percent (+0 percent)

St. Louis Cardinals (70-61, 2.5 games up in WC)

Nothing has come easy for the Cardinals this season, but they're still in good shape to reach the postseason for the 13th time in the past 17 seasons.

Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver have stepped into the starting rotation in place of the injured Michael Wacha and Mike Leake, while Jedd Gyorko and Brandon Moss continue to be the unlikely leaders of the offense.

The Cardinals have gone 10-5 in their last 15 games and are now within one game of the Giants for the top wild-card spot. Then again, hosting a game in the Wild Card Round might not be in their best interest, considering their 30-37 record at home.

Postseason Chances: 75 percent (+1 percent)

Pittsburgh Pirates (67-63, 2.5 games back in WC)

Since opting for an odd mix of buying and selling leading up to the trade deadline, the Pirates have gone 15-12 with a plus-12 run differential in August. That's been enough to keep them in the hunt for a playoff berth.

That winning record is even more impressive when you consider the offense has hit just .237 with a .688 OPS and the starting rotation is being led by Ryan Vogelsong, Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl and Jameson Taillon while ace Gerrit Cole struggles.

Baseball is the definition of unpredictable, and the Pirates are proving that time and again here in 2016.

Postseason Chances: 18 percent (+2 percent)

Non-Contenders

Milwaukee Brewers (56-76)

Cincinnati Reds (55-76)

NL West

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Contenders

Los Angeles Dodgers (73-58, 2 games up in division)

The Dodgers have overcome something few teams could, going 32-22 since ace Clayton Kershaw hit the disabled list with a back injury to seize control of the NL West.

Kershaw threw a simulated game Tuesday, and the next step in his path back to the active roster will likely be a minor league rehab assignment.

"My guess is that Kersh will want to pitch in a major league game tomorrow," Dodgers President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. "I think it will take a little bit of time to build him up in a way for him to be strong through September and hopefully October, as well."

His return, coupled with a potential September call-up of top pitching prospect Jose De Leon, should make the Dodgers that much better down the stretch. Even without their ace, they've looked superior to the rival Giants over the entire second half.

Postseason Chances: 97 percent (+3 percent)

San Francisco Giants (71-60, 3.5 games up in WC)

Despite a plus-seven run differential, the Giants have gone 10-16 in August, and a two-game lead in the NL West standings has turned into a two-game deficit in the process.

They'll hit the road for a 10-game trip that starts with a four-game series against the Cubs on Thursday, and that will be a significant test for a team that has been in a funk all summer.

The Giants have too much talent and experience to bet against their making the playoffs, but their postseason chances could take a significant hit if they struggle away from AT&T Park.

Postseason Chances: 81 percent (+0 percent)

Non-Contenders

Colorado Rockies (63-68)

Arizona Diamondbacks (56-76)

San Diego Padres (55-76)

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Standings current through Tuesday.