Updated 2016 MLB Playoff Chances with 6 Weeks Remaining
There are roughly six weeks left in the 2016 MLB regular season, and while the playoff picture is taking shape, there is still a lot to be decided before October.
In the American League, there are 10 legitimate contenders remaining. The Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers have a strong hold on their respective division leads, but the AL East is a three-team race and the two wild-card spots are wide-open.
The National League picture is not as congested, but there are still eight clubs in position to reach the postseason. The Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are essentially locks to fill two of the five spots. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants both look like good bets as well, regardless of who wins the NL West. That leaves four teams battling it out for the final wild-card spot.
What follows is a look at each club's chances of reaching the postseason, with the following factors taken into account:
- Current standings
- Recent performance
- Injury concerns
So with the regular season set to wrap up on Oct. 2, here is a division-by-division look at the playoff chances of all the remaining contenders.
AL East
1 of 6
Contenders
Boston Red Sox (71-54, tied for first in division)
Boston's offense continues to be the driving force behind its success, as it leads the majors in runs scored (685), runs per game (5.48), team batting average (.284) and team OPS (.816).
The pitching staff has been the question for much of the year, but it's posted a 3.30 ERA (fifth in MLB) in August, and Rick Porcello (17-3, 3.22 ERA, 1.042 WHIP) has emerged as a bona fide ace. As long as the rest of the rotation can turn in passable starts, the Red Sox should skate into the postseason.
Postseason chances: 92 percent
Toronto Blue Jays (71-54, tied for first in division)
The best offense in baseball a year ago, the Blue Jays still have plenty of firepower with a .762 team OPS and 4.82 runs per game. But it's their starting rotation that has led the way this time around.
Their starters rank first in the AL and fourth in the majors with a 3.65 ERA, and the decision to send Aaron Sanchez down to the minors to skip one of his starts should help keep the All-Star fresh down the stretch. With the bullpen rounding into form thanks to the additions of veterans Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit, there's no clear weakness on the roster.
Postseason chances: 85 percent
Baltimore Orioles (69-56, 2 games up in WC)
The Orioles have slugged their way into contention, leading the majors with 195 home runs and scoring 4.73 runs per game in the process.
However, they've battled through a leaky starting rotation (4.93 starting rotation ERA, 25th in MLB) and deadline-addition Wade Miley (4 GS, 0-2, 9.53 ERA) has not been the answer. With a 6-9 record in their last 15 games, they're trending in the wrong direction.
Postseason chances: 35 percent
New York Yankees (64-61, 5 games back in WC)
The Yankees have gone 11-9 since filling the unfamiliar role of seller at the Aug. 1 trade deadline, keeping them on the fringe of contention heading into the final week of August.
Rookies Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin have given the offense a spark, and Chad Green gave up just one earned run over six innings his last time out. The playoffs are a long shot, but Yankees fans are getting a chance to see part of their bright future in action.
Postseason chances: 2 percent
Non-Contenders
Tampa Bay Rays (52-72)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Cleveland Indians (72-52, 6.5 games up in division)
Since turning in a dominant 22-6 June, the Indians have gone a somewhat pedestrian 24-22, yet their lead in the AL Central stands at a robust 6.5 games.
The starting rotation has shown some signs of tiring in recent weeks, and the team as a whole has a 5.06 ERA in August. But the offense has picked up the slack with an AL-best 113 runs scored. At 20 games over .500, even if the Indians lose their division lead, they still look like a safe bet to secure a postseason spot.
Postseason chances: 94 percent
Detroit Tigers (66-59, 3 games back in WC)
Since putting together an impressive 10-1 stretch to pull back into the postseason picture, the Tigers have gone 5-10 in their last 15 games, and the streaking Kansas City Royals are now right on their tail as a result.
Finding consistency in the rotation behind Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer had been the biggest issue all season. However, Anibal Sanchez has looked terrific in three of his last four starts, and young left-handers Matt Boyd and Daniel Norris have both thrown the ball well in the second half. The pieces seem to be falling into place, but the recent results are troubling nonetheless.
Postseason chances: 21 percent
Kansas City Royals (65-60, 4 games back in WC)
There isn't a hotter team in baseball than the Royals, as they're riding a nine-game winning streak and have gone 14-2 in their last 16 games.
The starting rotation had been a major issue for much of the season, but since the All-Star break, the trio of Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy and Yordano Ventura has been as formidable as any in baseball. The question now is whether they can maintain such a high level of play, because the margin for error is incredibly thin at just five games over the .500 mark.
Postseason chances: 22 percent
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (60-64)
Minnesota Twins (49-76)
AL West
3 of 6
Contenders
Texas Rangers (73-53, 5.5 games up in division)
The Rangers have been the class of the AL West all season, holding at least a share of the division lead every day since May 29 and building that lead to as many as 10 games in late June.
The hard-charging Seattle Mariners have narrowed the gap, but that speaks more to how well the M's have played than to anything going wrong on the Rangers' side. Their offense is stacked, even with Prince Fielder retired and Shin-Soo Choo likely done for the year; the bullpen is once again one of the most dominant in baseball; and the starting rotation is finally getting healthy at the perfect time.
Postseason chances: 92 percent
Seattle Mariners (67-58, 2 games back in WC)
A .500 team on Aug. 1 at 52-52, the Mariners have gone 15-6 in their last 21 games to go from fringe contenders to perhaps the favorites for the second AL wild-card spot.
Felix Hernandez is back healthy and pitching as well as he has all season, Mike Zunino has returned from the minors with a vengeance to provide the offense with a spark and rookie Edwin Diaz has stabilized the back of the bullpen with absolutely filthy stuff (16.5 K/9) in the closer's role.
Postseason chances: 44 percent
Houston Astros (65-61, 4.5 games back in WC)
The Astros have had to work hard to overcome a 17-28 start, and their inconsistent play of late has left them spinning their tires at around five games over .500.
Outside of Doug Fister (12-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.275 WHIP), who has quietly been one of the best bargain signings of the offseason, the starting rotation has been wildly inconsistent. Their rotation's 4.30 ERA ranks 15th in the majors. The offense has weapons, most notably AL MVP candidate Jose Altuve, but it hasn't been as dangerous as it was a year ago.
Postseason chances: 13 percent
Non-Contenders
Oakland Athletics (54-72)
Los Angeles Angels (52-73)
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NL East
4 of 6
Contenders
Washington Nationals (73-52, 8 games up in division)
The Nationals have struggled to turn on-paper talent into wins in recent years, but they're doing it in 2016, thanks to a dominant starting rotation and an MVP candidate in Daniel Murphy.
Their starting rotation's 3.54 ERA ranks second in the majors, and while Stephen Strasburg landing on the disabled list with a "sore elbow" is troubling, it's said to be only precautionary. While Murphy has done much of the heavy lifting offensively, Bryce Harper seems to be snapping out of whatever funk he's been in, hitting .327 with a .957 OPS in August. If he gets hot, look out.
Postseason chances: 99 percent
Miami Marlins (65-60, 1.5 games back in WC)
While they are still in the wild-card race, the Marlins have their work cut out for them if they hope to stick around since Giancarlo Stanton (groin), Adam Conley (finger tendinitis) and Wei-Yin Chen (elbow) are all on the disabled list.
David Phelps has pitched well since moving from the bullpen into the rotation early this month, but they've still gone 8-12 with a minus-nine run differential in August, and with the New York Mets getting healthy and the Nationals streaking, it's going to be tough to hold on to that No. 2 spot in the NL East standings.
Postseason chances: 15 percent
New York Mets (63-62, 3.5 games back in WC)
The Mets kept their heads above water through a number of key injuries, and they've gone 3-1 since welcoming back Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera from the disabled list.
Getting and keeping Steven Matz healthy will be perhaps the biggest key to their late-season push, as they need that third stud to flank Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom in the rotation. However, with the offense back to full strength, they may still be a better team than they were a few weeks ago, even with Matz now on the disabled list with a left shoulder strain.
Postseason chances: 22 percent
Non-Contenders
Philadelphia Phillies (58-68)
Atlanta Braves (46-80)
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
Chicago Cubs (80-45, 13.5 games up in division)
Call it 99.999 percent if you prefer, as the Cubs are the closest thing to a lock for the postseason a team can be without having that little "x" next to their name in the standings.
The starting rotation has been brilliant, with Kyle Hendricks emerging as a breakout star; the bullpen is still a work in progress but undoubtedly better since the addition of Aroldis Chapman; and the offense, which is led by a pair of MVP candidates in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, is as dangerous as any in baseball.
Postseason chances: 99 percent
St. Louis Cardinals (66-58, 1.5 games up in WC)
It's been an interesting season for the Cardinals, who continue to find new ways to win games and stay in contention.
The unlikely duo of Brandon Moss and Jedd Gyorko has emerged to lead the offense, while Seung Hwan Oh has been lights-out in the closer's role since supplanting Trevor Rosenthal. The starting rotation is still searching for consistency behind Carlos Martinez, but right now, the Cardinals look like one of the favorites for a wild-card spot.
Postseason chances: 74 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates (63-60, 2.5 games back in WC)
A 9-3 stretch earlier this month had the Pirates within one game of the Cardinals for the second NL wild-card spot, but a four-game losing streak followed. Now, they've once again fallen to the fringe of contention.
Rookies Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl and deadline pickup Ivan Nova been huge in the rotation. Another rookie, first baseman Josh Bell, will now be asked to provide a spark for the offense after being called up earlier this week.
Postseason chances: 16 percent
Non-Contenders
Milwaukee Brewers (55-70)
Cincinnati Reds (54-71)
NL West
6 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers (70-55, 2 games up in NL West)
The Dodgers have used 13 different starting pitchers this season and been without ace Clayton Kershaw since June 26, yet they still sit 15 games over .500 with a two-game lead in the NL West standings.
Kershaw threw a 40-pitch bullpen session Tuesday, a significant step toward what could be a mid-September return. Meanwhile, corner infielders Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner are getting hot at the right time to lead the offense alongside MVP candidate Corey Seager.
Postseason chances: 94 percent
San Francisco Giants (68-57, 3 games up in WC)
The Giants have gone an MLB-worst 11-24 since the All-Star break, yet they've held on to a wild-card spot and are just two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings.
There was a time earlier this year when the Giants looked like the biggest competition to the Chicago Cubs for the title of best team in baseball, and the talent is still there. If Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto can get back to front-line form and Hunter Pence can wake up offensively, a run at the NL West title is still well within reach, but a postseason berth seems like a safe bet regardless.
Postseason chances: 81 percent
Non-Contenders
Colorado Rockies (60-66)
San Diego Padres (53-73)
Arizona Diamondbacks (52-74)
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Standings current through Tuesday.
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