Charlotte Hornets Complete 2016-17 Season Preview
The visiting locker room inside AmericanAirlines Arena was nearly silent on May 1, save for the bursts of elation echoing through the hallways every time the door opened.
Inside these walls, the stench of missed opportunity lingered like bad cologne trapped in an elevator. The most successful season in modern-day Charlotte Hornets history—48-34 record, three playoff wins—had collapsed amid losses in Games 6 and 7 to the Miami Heat.
But as Hornets players dressed for their final bus ride of the season, pockets of optimism began to blossom. As rough as the ending was, the journey was equally sweet. Charlotte had perhaps found something to build on, having been one of only five NBA teams with top-10 efficiency rankings on offense and defense.
There was only one problem—five of the club's top seven scorers were headed to the uncertainty of free agency. At this moment, though, there was a tangible hope of keeping the gang together.
"Any time you make strides with a team...I think you do want to try to build on that," Marvin Williams told Bleacher Report at the time. "You want to try to bring guys back, and I'm sure guys want to be back."
A free-agency market flush with cash cancelled some of those plans. The Hornets kept two but lost three, and those subtractions threaten to derail Charlotte's momentum heading into 2016-17.
Biggest Offseason Move
No matter how one views the totality of the Hornets' offseason, they deserve high marks for keeping their top free agent in place.
Nicolas Batum, the 6'8" swingman who paced them in points and ranked second in assists, had a superstar's salary awaiting him in Buzz City or elsewhere. Charlotte pounced quickly, inking the 27-year-old to a five-year, $120 million pact hours after the market opened.
"Ensuring that Nic remained in Charlotte was a top priority for us this offseason, and we are thrilled that he has re-signed with us," Hornets general manager Rich Cho said in a press release. "Nic brings versatility, skill and playmaking to our roster that complements all of our players."
Batum's offensive versatility allowed Kemba Walker to focus more on his own offense, and the former No. 9 pick posted personal bests in points per game (20.9) and player efficiency rating (20.8). Williams' floor-spacing skills similarly elevated Charlotte's entire offense, and the 30-year-old stretch forward received his own four-year, $54.5 million deal.
But Buzz City couldn't afford everyone. The Brooklyn Nets snatched up Jeremy Lin, the New York Knicks grabbed Courtney Lee and the Indiana Pacers tabbed Al Jefferson as part of their offensive overhaul. The Hornets settled for the less expensive trio of Ramon Sessions, Brian Roberts and Roy Hibbert after acquiring Marco Belinelli for the No. 22 pick.
Rotation Breakdown
With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back from two shoulder surgeries, each starter enhances another.
Batum and Walker ease the offensive burden the other carries, while Kidd-Gilchrist helps to keep Batum from overextending himself defensively. Williams, who buried a career-best 40.2 percent from deep last season, grants everyone breathing room, and Cody Zeller's athleticism and activity protect the back line.
Injuries limited that quintet to just 71 minutes during 2015-16, but those 71 were basketball magic. Charlotte crushed the competition by 21.8 points per 100 possessions—nearly double the net efficiency of the 73-win Golden State Warriors (plus-11.6).
| Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller |
| Ramon Sessions | Marco Belinelli | Jeremy Lamb | Frank Kaminsky | Roy Hibbert |
| Brian Roberts | Christian Wood | Spencer Hawes |
The second five should set itself, though the minutes afforded to it could be up for discussion.
Sessions can replace some of what Lin brought by attacking off the dribble and getting to the charity stripe, but he's even less threatening from deep. Both Belinelli and Jeremy Lamb could be the designated reserve snipers, though each has battled inconsistency. Frank Kaminsky looks like the first big off the bench, but a Hibbert resurgence—assuming that's possible—might challenge him.
"He was the premier rim protector in this league," Hornets head coach Steve Clifford said of Hibbert, per Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer. "He wasn't just good. He did it against great competition. This could be a great pickup."
Brian Roberts and Spencer Hawes should be locked behind only-break-in-case-of-emergency glass. Christian Wood has no obvious path to playing time, but the 6'10" sophomore possesses an interesting mix of athleticism and outside shooting.
Reasons for Confidence
Hope stems from three words.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is the most powerful defensive weapon in Charlotte's arsenal, provided he can stay on the floor.
The former No. 2 pick has played just 124 of a possible 246 games the past three seasons and had a pair of shoulder surgeries in the last two months. But he told reporters he's at "200 percent" now, which should terrify wing scorers across the league.
"Kidd-Gilchrist is one of the best defensive players in the league," wrote CBS Sports' Zach Harper. "Not just one of the best defensive wings; one of the best defenders, period."
Packing elite athleticism and a relentless motor inside his 6'7", 232-pound frame, Kidd-Gilchrist can seamlessly cycle through multiple defensive assignments. And despite often matching up against the opposition's best player, he dazzles in every available defensive metric.
In his seven appearances last season, he held opponents 7.0 points below their average field-goal percentage. During 2014-15, he ranked 12th overall in ESPN.com's Defensive Real Plus-Minus. While he's still forming his offensive identity, he manages to lift the Hornets every time he hits the hardwood.
Charlotte's 2015-16 outfit found a better two-way balance than previous incarnations, but neither unit graded out as elite. With free agency having stripped away some of the Hornets' best point-producers, they'll need to rely more on their ability to get stops.
Pairing Batum and Kidd-Gilchrist should help this club climb the defensive ladder. In limited action together, the two produced a 99.7 defensive rating, which would have ranked third overall.
Reasons for Concern
The 2016 offseason may be historically linked to the word "costly," but the term resonates for a different reason in Charlotte.
The outgoing players have altered the Hornets' offensive identity. Jefferson was a reliable bailout option, routinely creating something out of nothing on the left block. Lin was the spark plug who could build on the starters' momentum or generate his own. Lee and Troy Daniels maintained proper spacing by hitting 44.8 percent of their outside shots.
That quartet averaged a combined 38.2 points per game, roughly 37 percent of Charlotte's nightly output. The production won't be easily replaced.
Belinelli is coming off his worst shooting season in the NBA (38.6 percent overall, 30.6 from the field). Hibbert's scoring average has dropped each of the past four years, falling to a career-worst 5.9 in 2015-16. Roberts shouldn't see much action. And while Sessions enters on a high note (9.9 points on 47.3 percent shooting), he's only one season removed from the least efficient campaign of his career.
The Hornets appear heavily dependent on internal development. Unless Walker has another leap year in him—how much higher can he climb from 20.9 points and 5.2 assists?—that improvement must come from the likes of Kidd-Gilchrist (not a scorer), Zeller (not a self-sufficient scorer), Kaminsky (not yet a reliable shooter from inside or out) and Lamb (not in 2016 playoff rotation).
Predictions
The 2015-16 season was a coming-out party of sorts in Charlotte: Walker reached near-All-Star heights. Batum and Williams peppered their stat sheets with career highs. The Hornets hit a level of success unseen since the NBA's return to the Queen City.
Yet that doesn't seem like a springboard to a brighter future. The Hornets were good last season, but not good enough to join the NBA's elite. While they should expect bigger contributions from their youngsters, those additions will likely be offset by this summer's subtractions.
"The Hornets look like they are running in place," Scott Fowler of the Charlotte Observer wrote. "They didn't get decimated in free agency like, say, Atlanta, but they also didn't win big like Golden State. They in large part have fought hard...to stay about where they were in terms of personnel in 2015-16."
Barring several breakout years, this roster looks a little weaker than last season's. It should still be strong enough for a postseason return, but the Hornets may have to settle for a lower playoff seed.
- Final Record: 44-38
- Division Standing: First in Southeast
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- B/R League-wide Power Rankings Prediction: 11th
Unless noted otherwise, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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