USA vs. Serbia: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Basketball

Sunday's gold-medal game between Team USA and Serbia will be a David vs. Goliath clash. The Serbians are playing Olympic men's basketball for the first time as an independent nation. The Americans, meanwhile, are after their sixth gold medal in the past seven Summer Games.

But push the on-paper credentials aside, and this biblical analogy falls apart.

Serbia has already faced Team USA and fell just three points shy of a gargantuan upset. During that group-play match, Serbia's top sniper, Bogdan Bogdanovic, misfired on a clean perimeter look during the closing seconds, ensuring the United States' white-knuckle 94-91 victory.

Serbia, which suffered three group-play defeats, enters this championship contest fresh off an 87-61 semifinal roasting of feisty Australia. The U.S., on the other hand, made just enough plays to fend off Spain in a disjointed, gritty, technical foul-filled 82-76 contest.

The Americans still retain their spot as clear favorites, but Serbia's numbers speak for themselves.

United States		Serbia
7-0	Record	4-3
101.6	Points Per Game	85.6
80.1	Opponents' Points Per Game	75.9
47.6	Field-Goal Percentage	48.0
37.6	Three-Point Percentage	35.7

Buoyed by strong backcourt play and a bruising frontcourt, the Serbs have secured victories at both ends of the floor. But they must harness an even higher gear to derail an American team laser-locked on completing its sole Olympic purpose.

"We've got one game," Carmelo Anthony told reporters Friday. "That's what we came here for, and we don't want to leave with anything less than the gold medal."

Will the U.S. continue its run of international dominance? Or can Serbia seal its Olympic arrival in gold?

When: 2:45 p.m. ET Sunday

Where: Carioca Arena 1 in Rio de Janeiro

Live Stream: NBCOlympics.com

Hitting Defensive Stride

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Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski has maintained a central theme throughout this tournament: Gold medals must be captured on the defensive end.

The basketball gods have validated those words. With Serbia on the schedule, the Americans' knockout path has featured the three highest-scoring, non-U.S. teams in the field. Given how often Coach K's defense leaked during group play—its points against climbed in each of the five matchups—this draw could have been a death knell.

But it's served as an alarm clock instead, awaking a potentially dominant defense flush with length and athleticism.

During the quarterfinals, America held Argentina below its averages in points (78), field-goal percentage (38) and three-point percentage (25 percent). It was rinse and repeat against Spain, whose experienced roster shot just 38.9 percent overall and eight of 26 from distance.

"The key to their game was defense," Spain coach Sergio Scariolo said, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "Their athleticism and their size made our offense difficult in most of the possessions."

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DeAndre Jordan provided a critical interior presence during his second consecutive start. The high-flying center recorded game highs in rebounds (16), blocks (four) and plus-minus differential (plus-11), plugging any gaps that opened in front of him.

The Americans dodged several bullets too, as the Spaniards struggled to capitalize on open perimeter shots. And Spain assuredly wishes it would have targeted Kyrie Irving and DeMarcus Cousins more in the pick-and-roll game.

Still, these are back-to-back encouraging efforts from a defense that was supposed to play like this. The roster has a few weak spots, but it also boasts four 2015-16 NBA All-Defensive team members. Even without the benefits of continuity and chemistry, there's enough raw talent to shine with the right amounts of focus and intensity.

"We need to continue to play with that effort on the defensive end," Kevin Durant said, per Zillgitt. "With passion like that, it's going to be tough to beat us."

But that effort can't wane one bit against an efficient Serbia offense that has already dismantled this defense once. The Serbians scored the second-most points (91), shot the second-highest field-goal percentage (51.7) and enjoyed the most perimeter success in makes (10) and accuracy (40 percent) of Team USA's first seven opponents.

Brute Strength and Precision

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Finesse and physicality aren't often shared strengths, but Serbia has managed to marry the two approaches during its Rio run.

The near upset of the Americans featured both. Milos Teodosic (18 points, six assists) and Nikola Jokic (25 points, 11-of-15 shooting) provided the bulk of the former, carving up the U.S. defense with perpetual movement and pinpoint passing. Miroslav Raduljica supplied the latter, bulldozing his way to 18 points before fouling out in less than 15 minutes.

Serbia's screening, cutting and passing ripped apart an American defense that struggled to stay connected during group play.

Its offense safeguards itself from stagnation by skipping the ball between moving bodies. Teodosic is a relentless attacker, Bogdanovic is slippery off the wing and Jokic is both a stretch and playmaking big. There's a concerted effort to keep the ball ahead of defenders, as the Serbs don't want to turn these contests into individual engagements.

"Once you move the ball, they are always chasing somebody," Serbia head coach Aleksandar Djordjevic said after the first matchup against the United States, per Zillgitt. "Once you stop the ball, they just go one-on-one, and that's very tough to beat against athletic players."

But when efficiency fails them, the Serbians can impose their physical will. Despite struggling from downtown (5-of-16) and losing the turnover battle (18-16), Serbia skated past Australia by suffocating the Aussie offense (14 first-half points, 33.3 percent shooting overall) and bludgeoning it on the glass (43-30).

"Serbia will likely be just as physical and aggressive against Team USA's offense," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote Friday. "If the whistles stay quiet, American frustration mounts and transition chances disappear, Serbia could make things interesting."

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

If Teodosic, Bogdanovic and Jokic hit their jump shots as well, it's possible Sunday's sequel could follow a plot similar to the initial installment.

But if Team USA has stumbled upon a reliable defensive formula—the Americans are yielding just 77 points per game on 38.4 percent shooting in the two games with Jordan in the starting five—Serbia needs another plan of attack. Brute force could be the best option to test the United States' resolve.

Prediction

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Forecasting this championship bout requires one to process the first meeting: Serbia tested Team USA more than any squad in this tournament but only after the Americans relinquished almost all of 9-0 and 27-9 leads.

Krzyzewski's troops were still growing then, learning each other's tendencies on the fly and grasping the intricacies of the international game. The Americans probably let off the gas some, but the Serbs deserve ample credit for cashing in on their opportunities.

Still, this is Team USA's game to lose. It has a massive advantage in individual talent and a developing chemistry.

"They are for sure the best team in the tournament—one great team with the big names," Teodosic said Friday, per Tom Withers of the Associated Press. "We're going to go on the court and try to play our game, and we're going to see if it's going to be enough."

It might be enough to make the contest compelling, but it won't be enough to deny the United States its third consecutive gold. The Americans can see the finish line, and they're gaining a better understanding of the importance of defense in realizing their goal.

The deck is stacked against Serbia, and come Sunday, the scoreboard will be, too.

Prediction: United States 101, Serbia 84

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @ZachBuckleyNBA.