NASCAR at Bristol 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Bass Pro Shops/NRA 500
NASCAR is back at Bristol Motor Speedway for a midsummer nightโs dream in Tennessee.
This is the sprint to the end of the regular season, where the pressure is highest before the playoffs. Four races remain until we hit the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
But first, drivers must navigate the short track ofย Bristol for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.
Five hundred laps of mayhem await these drivers as the available Chase slots dwindle week by week.
Read on as we get ready to sprint though the final four races.
By the Numbers: Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
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Place:ย Bristol Motor Speedway
Date:ย Aug. 20
TV Coverage:ย 8:16 p.m. ET, NBCSN
Distance:ย 500 laps (266.5 miles)
Defending Champion:ย Joey Logano
Current Driver Standings
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1. Brad Keselowski, 727
2. Kevin Harvick, 718
3. Kurt Busch, 689
4. Kyle Busch, 670
5. Carl Edwards, 653
6. Joey Logano, 652
7. Denny Hamlin, 620
8. Martin Truex Jr., 612
9. Matt Kenseth, 600
10. Jimmie Johnson, 578
11. Ryan Newman, 562
12. Chase Elliott, 562
13. Austin Dillon, 559
14. Jamie McMurray, 550
15. Kyle Larson, 520
16. Trevor Bayne, 512
26. Tony Stewart, 389
31. Chris Buescher*, 292
*Three points shy of the Chase Grid.
The Chase Bubble Watch
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Newman, plus-50
Elliott, plus-49
Dillon, plus-48
McMurray, plus-38
Larson, plus-8
Bayne, minus-8
Kasey Kahne, minus-11
Ryan Blaney, minus-18
AJย Allmendinger, minus-34
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Top Storylines
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Jimmie Johnson Has Lost a Tire Changer.
This isnโt what youโd call earth-shattering news, but when the No. 48 team has been struggling for weeks to regain its footing, the little things are the big things.
Cameron Waugh is leaving Hendrick Motorsports and will move across the country to Colorado and get out of the sport entirely, per NASCAR's official website.
"It's been an absolute blast being able to pit the No. 48 with some of my closest friends," Waugh said, per NASCAR's official website. "I will miss the intensity of pit road but most of all I will miss the friendships I have made over the years."
The choreography of a pit stop is meticulous in nature. A new member, no matter how talented, will take some adjustingโfor him and the other crewmen. Imagine a new offensive lineman jumping in at right guard after the half. It shakes up the entire chemistry.
Kevin Novak, a longtime tire changer for Roush Fenway Racing, is reportedly the new tire changer for the team, per NASCAR's official website.
As for Johnson, he did not finish at Watkins Glen, where he plowed into Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in a blind wreck on the road course. It was his fourth DNF of the season.
Right now, itโs hard to see Johnson advancing beyond the Contender Round of the Chase. This latest shakeup makes that all the more challenging.
Will Chris Buescher Close the Gap on David Ragan?
Entering The Glen, Chris Buescher was six points back of David Ragan, who sits in the coveted 30th spot in the standings.
After an inopportune wreck involving Ragan and Buescher, the No. 34 team gained three precious points on Ragan. With four races remaining, Buescher must overcome those three points and reach the top 30.
ESPN.comโs John Oreovicz is confident in Buescher's ability:
"He knows how to finish races, and that skill, when coupled with the right crew chief and strategist, can win races. For the short term, Buescher's outlook is heavily dependent upon whether Roush Fenway Racing can return to being a front-running team. If RFR picks up its game, Buescher is a safe pair of hands for the team's future.
"
Now that Buescher has the win locked up, itโs imperative to finish races. No DNFs. He needs to keep his eye on Raganโs car and be several spots ahead of him in each of the next four races.
Buescherโs average finish in two Cup starts at Bristol is 23.0, while Raganโs is 26.2.
There are his three points.
Dark-Horse Selection: Kyle Larson
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The weekly Kyle Larson pick continues.
I donโt have the time or patience to look back at how many times I have picked Larson to win a race in 2016, but the batting average is .000.
Still, thereโs always a chance.
FoxSports.comโs Jeff Hammond wrote, โKyle Larson and Chip Ganassi Racing need to make a statement Saturday night. The only way to do that is to go up there and hit the competitors square in the mouth and let them know that Kyle is for real. They just have to go make it happen.โ
Larson stood to earn a top-five finish at The Glen before AJ Allmendinger sent him careening off the track in the final meters. Larsonโs best finish at Bristol is seventh, and heโs been driving with greater confidence in the second half of this season.
Hammond added, โWith the reconfiguration and improvements that Bristol has made to the track, I can visualize this kid going in low, letting it drift high and then cutting it hard left coming hard off these corners.โ
And with only four races remaining, Larson will be driving hard for points and, if the timing is right, a win at Bristol Motor Speedway.
And the Winner Is...Carl Edwards
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Letโs make it a clean sweep for Carl Edwards.
Few drivers have qualified as well as Edwards all season. He has four polesย andย an average start of seventh in 2016. Edwards won the spring race at Bristol from the pole, and that means heโs likely to run up front for most of the race.
"Bristol is 500 laps of insanity with the groove being up by the fence," Edwards said, per Tom Jensen ofย FoxSports.com. "You've really got to plan your passes. You've got to work traffic. Hopefully we can start up front, stay up front and play the game the right way."
Edwards led 276 laps in this race a few months ago and parlayed that into another win at Richmond.
Given that Richmond closes out the regular season, this could be the time that Edwards and the No. 19 team gain serious elevation heading into the Chase.
Anything short of a top-five finish from this team at Bristol will be aย disappointment.
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