Ranking Team USA and Each Men's Basketball Team Headed to 2016 Summer Olympics
When the men's basketball tournament kicks off August 6 at the 2016 Olympic Games, everyone will be chasing Team USA. Led by Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and plenty of other marquee superstars, the Americans head to Brazil as the prohibitive gold-medal favorites.
But 11 other countries will attempt to navigate through the perils of the group stage, hoping to make the final eight and advance through the elimination games to earn a coveted spot on the podium.
Ricky Rubio and Pau Gasol will lead the charge for Spain. Matthew Dellavedova will hope to continue his 2015-16 breakout by steering Australia to numerous victories. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili could be playing in their final Olympics for France and Argentina, respectively.
Stars from all over the world will be out in full force, but only a handful of them play for countries with a legitimate shot at earning immortality in Rio de Janeiro. Starting at the bottom of the totem pole, let's see who will emerge as Team USA's toughest test.
Note: Full schedule of games on FIBA.com.
12. China
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 14
NBA Players: None
Though China doesn't boast any current NBA players on its Olympic roster, it does feature a few men who should resonate stateside.
Yi Jianlian currently plays for the Chinese Basketball Association's Guangdong Southern Tigers and is coming off a season in which he averaged 26.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 54.9 percent from the field. His NBA career never worked out after he was selected at No. 6 in 2007, but he's now an eight-time All-Star, four-time champion, two-time Finals MVP and four-time Regular Season Domestic MVP in the CBA.
Zhou Qi, the 7'1" big man taken by the Houston Rockets at No. 43 in June, and Wang Zhelin, another 7-footer whom the Memphis Grizzlies selected 14 picks later, should also be on the radar.
But with an unconvincing backcourt and trouble on the wings, it probably won't matter.
This Chinese squad is severely overmatched against most opponents, and it'll be trying to bounce back from a putrid performance in the 2012 London Olympics in which it went 0-5 in the preliminary stages. If its July 26 exhibition—a 107-57 blowout at the hands of Team USA, which came with Yi watching from the sidelines—is any indication, China isn't anywhere close to competing for a medal.
11. Venezuela
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 22
NBA Players: Greivis Vasquez
Venezuela is brimming with veteran experience. Only one player has yet to celebrate his 25th birthday—22-year-old small forward Anthony Perez, who just completed a nondescript four years at Ole Miss by averaging a mere 7.0 points and 4.1 rebounds as a senior.
Unfortunately, experience doesn't equal quality.
The Vinotinto are peaking at the right moment, winning the 2015 FIBA Americas Championship for the first time to cement their spot in Rio's field. But reincorporating Greivis Vasquez is going to be an interesting challenge for a team that built chemistry in his absence.
"The atmosphere with the group is very good," the new member of the Brooklyn Nets told FIBA.com. "There is a lot of harmony. Some of us have played together over the years and we have known each other since the youth categories so that gives us a lot of trust in each other."
Vasquez may not even play, which would put a damper on Venezuela's hopes of pulling off a miracle. He went under the knife in December to remove a bone spur from his ankle, and he hasn't participated in any team events as he awaits word on insurance arrangements, per the Venezuelan Basketball Federation's Instagram (via NetsDaily).
If Vasquez can't (or won't) play, there's even more pressure on Heissler Guillent, the team's star point guard.
10. Nigeria
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 25
NBA Players: Al-Farouq Aminu, Festus Ezeli, Michael Gbinije
Nigeria isn't one of the fringe contenders in this year's Olympics, but it also shouldn't be considered one of the bottom-feeders. This is a country on the rise, fresh off a gold medal at 2015 AfroBasket that it earned without star power forward Ike Diogu.
Now, Diogu is back and set to join a growing stable of young Nigerian players who are ready to experience some level of success on the international stage. Al-Farouq Aminu, Festus Ezeli and Michael Gbinije (an incoming rookie for the Detroit Pistons) may not be stars in the NBA, but they all have the requisite talent to compete in this setting and should receive substantial playing time.
Losing captain Olumide Oyedeji, who withdrew from the competition in late July, per AllAfrica.com, will be painful. But the D'Tigers have the size and talent to replace him, as well as a convincing face from Vermont on the sidelines, looking to offer the program some stability.
"In the past, people would look at African teams and say they're athletic, but they have no discipline and play wild," head coach Will Voigt explained to the Wall Street Journal's Ben Cohen. "We've really worked hard to change that. That was our approach at AfroBasket, and that's our approach for Rio."
With Chamberlain Oguchi raining in threes and Josh Akognon running the point, Nigeria managed a four-point upset of Argentina in a recent exhibition. Now, there should be legitimate optimism about advancing out of the group stage.
9. Croatia
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 12
NBA Players: Mario Hezonja, Dario Saric, Bojan Bogdanovic
Led by a trio of NBA players, Croatia has the requisite skill to give some established powers a true test.
Mario Hezonja is coming off his rookie season with the Orlando Magic, while Dario Saric is about to embark upon his first campaign in the Association for the Philadelphia 76ers. Bojan Bogdanovic is already established as a quality rotation member, thanks primarily to his shooting acumen.
But if Croatia is going to make any noise in Brazil, it needs contributions from everyone else. It was an uphill battle just to qualify for the first time in eight years—a battle capped off by an overtime victory against Italy that featured more than a few lead changes.
Though Bogdanovic and Saric are the clear stars of the team, that's not enough. It's impossible to win without quality play at the point, and Roko Ukic has struggled recently, as Mike DeCourcy of Sporting News noted:
"The question will be whether Ukic, 31, can manage the sort of point guards he will face against Spain in group play (Ricky Rubio) and possibly the U.S. (Kyrie Irving) and France (Tony Parker) later in the tournament. Ukic struggled at times against Italy’s Daniel Hackett and was fortunate Hackett sat out a chunk of the second half in foul trouble.
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If Ukic can't get it going, the Croatians will have to call upon Rok Stipcevic. The 30-year-old is a capable marksman, but he has trouble running the show, averaging just 3.5 assists per 36 minutes for Banco di Sardegna Sassari in 2015-16.
8. Argentina
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 4
NBA Players: Nicolas Brussino, Manu Ginobili, Luis Scola
Argentina may still sit at No. 4 in the FIBA rankings, but that's largely due to how those standings are calculated. They're based on competitions within the last eight years, and hearkening back to the 2008 Beijing Olympics doesn't always paint an accurate picture.
The Golden Generation is gone for the Argentines, as Alejandro Perez wrote for ESPN Argentina back in 2015:
"Recent history would practically guarantee Argentina would take part in the 2016 Olympic Games basketball competition, as has happened in the last three Games. But at the same time, reality would dictate otherwise. This national team is quite different from years past in which the Golden Generation won gold in Greece 2004, bronze in Beijing 2008 and a respectable fourth place in London 2012. Those accomplishments are but a fleeting memory.
And the same goes for the Golden Generation itself.
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Luis Scola and Manu Ginobili are still on the roster, but both veterans are past their primes and should serve more as spiritual leaders than on-court studs. Each can dominate for brief spurts, but relying on them for Herculean performances would be a mistake—a sentiment that also applies to other Golden Generation holdovers such as Carlos Delfino and Andres Nocioni.
This tournament should be an opportunity to test the youngsters who will lead the next generation of basketball in Argentina, especially given the mediocre athleticism and undersized nature of this team. Marcos Delia and Roberto Acuna are the two biggest towers, and they each stand 6'10".
Expect to see a lot of Facundo Campazzo (25 years old), Nicolas Brussino (23), Patricio Garino (23) and Gabriel Deck (21) as Argentina assesses its future.
7. Brazil
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 9
NBA Players: Leandro Barbosa, Marcelo Huertas, Nene, Raul Neto
Without Anderson Varejao, whom ESPN.com's Marc Stein reports will miss the Olympics due to a back injury, the hosts get significantly weaker. Though he may have filled just a minor role during the Golden State Warriors' unsuccessful title defense, he's been a mainstay in Brazil's frontcourt for international play.
Now, the team is missing both Varejao and Tiago Splitter, which puts the previously sturdy stable of bigs under the microscope. Nene (33 years old) hasn't been the same for years, and the only other frontcourt players on the roster are Cristiano Felicio (24), Guilherme Giovannoni (36), Augusto Lima (24) and Rafael Hettsheimeir (30).
All of a sudden, the guards are facing a lot of pressure.
Leandro Barbosa and the ever-creative Marcelo Huertas have been the studs in years past, but this team should belong to Raul Neto. The burgeoning Utah Jazz playmaker will no longer be a reserve, as he was four years ago in London, and will need to create easy looks for his bigger, less skilled teammates.
"It's been so many years we've been trying to be successful," Barbosa recently told the Mercury News' Mark Purdy. "Now is just the biggest-ever opportunity. And all the players know that. We have a lot of experience. It'll be special for us, to give that to our country. For me, it's a dream come true if we do that. It's unique."
For Barbosa's dream to avoid becoming a nightmare, home-court advantage will have to be substantial.
6. Serbia
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 6
NBA Players: Nikola Jokic
Serbia has two key ingredients.
Milos Teodosic has established himself as one of the world's best non-NBA point guards, and he's coming off a season in which he helped lead CSKA Moscow to the Euroleague title. Perfectly comfortable running endless pick-and-roll sets, the 29-year-old floor general averaged 14.6 points, 5.7 assists and 2.4 rebounds in 2015-16.
He'll be feeding the ball to a pair of bigs with NBA experience—Nikola Jokic and Miroslav Raduljica. The former is an up-and-coming star for the Denver Nuggets who asserted himself as a two-way force during his rookie season, while the latter is a 7'0" bruiser who most recently suited up for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2014-15.
The issue for Serbia is everything in between.
The team has the point guard and bigs necessary to hang with most competitors, but the wings are unproven commodities. Though Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nemanja Nedovic have plenty of offensive upside, their success in international competition has been fleeting.
Of course, if Bogdanovic can average 17.8 points, 6.0 assists and 5.2 rebounds, as he did during the 2016 FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament, he will ease that concern.
Serbia is talented—and would have been even more talented with Boban Marjanovic and Nemanja Bjelica in the fold—but it may be too young and inexperienced to compete for a medal.
5. Australia
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 11
NBA Players: Aron Baynes, Andrew Bogut, Matthew Dellavedova, Joe Ingles, Patty Mills
As Kieran Pender wrote for the Guardian, it's a good time to be a fan of Australian basketball:
"The future of Australian basketball has never looked brighter. In mid-June an Australian lifted the NBA championship trophy for the third consecutive year, while less than a week later Melbourne-born teenage sensation Ben Simmons was drafted with the No. 1 pick. Simmons’ childhood friend Dante Exum is set to return to the court following a prolonged injury absence, while Thon Maker – a South Sudanese-Australian also selected in the NBA draft’s first round – has shone in early preseason action.
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Unfortunately, none of those named players will suit up for the Boomers, who could also be without Andrew Bogut if his knee hasn't healed properly by the time action begins. Fortunately, the roster is still swimming with talent and offers hope Australia could earn its first Olympic basketball medal.
Even if Bogut isn't ready to go, Patty Mills, Joe Ingles and Matthew Dellavedova should feast on the shorter arc used in FIBA play. And they're by no means the only notable figures—Ryan Broekhoff, Brock Motum, Cameron Bairstow, Aron Baynes and David Andersen should all have huge roles.
This is a tough, physical roster with plenty of floor-spacing ability and ball-handling talent. It's capable of beating any team in the field—save the No. 1 squad in these rankings—on any given night, and that's without the young players who could join the Boomers in future competitions.
4. Lithuania
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 3
NBA Players: Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Domantas Sabonis, Jonas Valanciunas
During the 2012 London Olympics, Jonas Valanciunas averaged just 4.2 points and 4.0 rebounds for Lithuania. More importantly, he got his feet wet on a massive international stage, which will pay large dividends as he attempts to lead his country to the podium.
Three years later, the Toronto Raptors center averaged 16.0 points and 8.4 rebounds during 2015 EuroBasket, and those numbers are far more indicative of the impact he'll have in Brazil. Though Mantas Kalnietis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Domantas Sabonis will all have substantial roles, this team will thrive only if Valanciunas does.
Still, the three other aforementioned players could help lift the ceiling even higher.
Kalnietis is the steady presence at point guard who is capable of generating more assists than anyone else in the field. He's a creative playmaker who sees action develop sooner than most, and he's never afraid to squeeze the ball into tight spaces.
If Kuzminskas is hitting from the outside, Kalnietis' work only gets easier. The new member of the New York Knicks struggled with his shot during the ACB portion of his final season with Unicaja Malaga, but he knocked down 37.7 percent of his Euroleague triples while taking 5.7 per 36 minutes.
When those two are clicking and Sabonis is dazzling defenders with his skill around the blocks, Lithuania can convince you it's a juggernaut.
3. Spain
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 2
NBA Players: Alex Abrines, Jose Calderon, Pau Gasol, Willy Hernangomez, Nikola Mirotic, Sergio Rodriguez, Ricky Rubio
Spain has traditionally been the biggest threat to dethrone Team USA, but this roster doesn't quite stack up to previous editions.
Pau Gasol and Jose Calderon are both further from their primes, though Gasol did produce plenty of double-doubles for the Chicago Bulls in 2015-16. Marc Gasol won't play as he continues to rehabilitate his broken foot. Serge Ibaka also won't be present, leaving Nikola Mirotic to instead serve as the team's one naturalized member.
Though Spain still has plenty of NBA-caliber talent on its 2016 roster, it's devoid of the star power it usually possesses. Ricky Rubio and Gasol will need to do much of the heavy lifting, creating easy opportunities for their more nondescript teammates.
But even during this down year, the Spaniards still have a wealth of talent. In addition to the NBA players listed above, they'll utilize former members of the Association (Rudy Fernandez and Juan Carlos Navarro) and two Real Madrid standouts (Sergio Llull and Felipe Reyes).
Spain isn't the United States' primary challenger in Rio, but it only falls short by a tiny margin. No one should overlook this team.
2. France
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 5
NBA Players: Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert, Joffrey Lauvergne, Tony Parker
In a recent Hang Time Blog on NBA.com, five of the seven surveyed writers picked France as the biggest threat to Team USA's international supremacy, and each of the other two mentioned it in conjunction with Spain. Ian Thomsen of NBA.com highlighted France's variety of threats:
"The leadership of Tony Parker, the shot-blocking of Rudy Gobert, the playmaking of Boris Diaw and the perimeter defense of Nicolas Batum will give France the best chance in the final game of group play—especially if the French are fighting for a higher seed and the Americans are looking ahead to the knockout round.
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We're inclined to agree with the majority, and it's defense that pushes France to the top.
Gobert may be the most talented defender in the field, and Batum isn't far behind. That interior-perimeter combination can keep the French in a game against anyone, so long as they're able to dictate the tempo by slowing things down.
Would it help if Tony Parker were still in this prime? Sure. Would it have been nice to see Evan Fournier on the roster? Absolutely. Do the French need big performances from Thomas Heurtel, Nando de Colo and Mickael Gelabale? Without question.
This team is by no means perfect. But in terms of legitimate stars—Gobert played like a top-50 NBA player in 2015-16, and Batum deserved All-Star consideration—and depth of talent, no outfit poses a bigger threat to the Americans.
1. United States
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FIBA World Ranking: No. 1
NBA Players: Entire roster
LeBron James isn't playing. Russell Westbrook is staying home. Stephen Curry will rest up in preparation for his run at a third consecutive NBA MVP trophy. Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, Anthony Davis and many other American stars will watch from afar.
And still, Team USA is loaded beyond belief. Just take a gander at this projected depth chart:
| Kyrie Irving | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Carmelo Anthony | DeMarcus Cousins |
| Kyle Lowry | Jimmy Butler | Paul George | Draymond Green | DeAndre Jordan |
| DeMar DeRozan | Harrison Barnes |
If he played for the United States, Gobert would slot in as nothing more than the team's No. 3 center. Batum would supplant Barnes but still trail two other players at his position and receive minimal playing time. Spain's best players would be nothing more than seldom-used backups, and no other country boasts someone who would be a lock to make the roster.
Barnes is easily Team USA's worst contributor, but he'd still emerge as a go-to player for nearly everyone else in the field.
If the myriad All-Stars on this roster don't earn gold, it'll go down in the Olympic annals as a historic upset.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, RealGM.com or NBA Math.
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