LA Dodgers Have Everything to Lose in NL West Title Showdown

No matter what they do this weekend, the Los Angeles Dodgers will head into the postseason with a bagful of doubts and concerns.

This is the sixth day that the Dodgers’ magic number has been stuck at one and Dodgers fans around the country are cringing at the thought of entering the playoffs as a Wild Card team.

The Colorado Rockies were 15-and-a-half games out of first place on June 3, but heading into tonight’s matchup, they are just two games behind the Dodgers.

Fortunately, only four teams in the history of the game have ever been able to overcome such a deficit on the final weekend, but with the head-to-head matchup anything is possible.

One of those teams to make the unlikely comeback was, of course, the 2007 Rockies.

This season, Jim Tracy has guided the Rockies to the most wins in franchise history and they have surged late in the season to give the Dodgers a scare within the division.

Yesterday, Colorado clinched a playoff berth with a victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, and kept hopes alive to steal the NL West from Joe Torre and the Dodgers.

When the Dodgers clinched a playoff berth last Saturday, they held a six-game lead over the Rockies.

All of a sudden, they’ve allowed a season’s worth of work come down to one weekend of battle.

But look—the Boys in Blue are at home in cozy Chavez Ravine.

They’ve beaten the Rockies 12 out of 15 times thus far in ’09, and there is no reason that they should let this division slip through their fingers.

I expect Randy Wolf to come out and throw seven or eight strong innings, and even if the offense doesn’t wake up, the veteran southpaw is very capable of shutting down the potent Rockies offense en route to a clinching victory.

Even then—Dodgers fans won’t be pleased.

The damage that the Blue Crew has done in the past week can only be remedied by postseason success. At this point, the NL West is a moot point, and the only thing on the minds of those who bleed Dodger Blue is a trip to the World Series.

So let’s take a look at the Dodger players who will have an impact on if the Dodgers are able lockup the NL West.

Key Matchups

In my opinion, this series falls squarely on the shoulders of Andre Ethier.

Ethier must snap out of this slump, because with the offense struggling to score runs recently, he will have to drive in runs and be productive in order for the Dodgers to secure a title.

Unbelievably, he went just 1-for-29 on the past road trip and looked flat out bad at the plate.

To compound the difficulty of cracking his slump, he is just 8-for-51 combined against Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jason Marquis for his career.

Ethier needs to be a force behind leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal, who has quietly caught fire at the right time and has infused the top of the order with plenty of scoring opportunities—but his buddies in the middle of the order have left him hanging time-after-time.

Furcal has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games, and he has batted .352 in his past 21 games with a .424 on-base percentage.

His sudden turnaround should be a huge boost for what (unbelievably) still is the Senior Circuit’s best lineup, even after the team went through tough offensive times for most of the second half of the season.

Getting production from the leadoff spot takes the lineup back to the form of when Manny Ramirez was gone, and Juan Pierre was inserted into the leadoff spot, dropping Furcal into the second spot in the order where he struggled to find a rhythm.

The main thing that Pierre provided was stolen bases, speed, and a constant presence on the base paths out of the leadoff position, something Furcal has has had difficulty doing amidst a background of back surgery.

But now, Furcal has started cranking things up on the base paths, stealing five bases during in his past 13 games. 

For the Dodgers to seize key opportunities with Furcal on-base, James Loney has to continue his hot-hitting to take some of the pressure off the bats of Matt Kemp and Ethier.

Loney is hitting .351 in his past 23 games with four home runs and 15 RBI, and with his recent power surge, he has tied a career high with 13 home runs—12 of which have come on the road.

If the Dodgers want to capture back-to-back NL West titles, the offense needs to turn on the burners and put some runs on the board to support the pitchers.

Probable Pitchers

Ubaldo Jimenez (14-12, 3.52) vs. Randy Wolf (11-6, 3.22)

Wolf is the workhorse of this team, pitching six innings or more in 17 consecutive starts, and not recording a loss since Aug. 1.  

This start also puts Wolf in line to start Game One of the NLDS on Wednesday.

In his last outing against Colorado, Wolf pitched seven and one-third innings of one-run baseball on Aug. 26 to earn the win at Coors Field. On the season, the Rockies are hitting just .189 against Wolf in three starts and he has posted a 2.89 ERA.

Keep an eye on Ryan Spillborghs who is 3-for-9 career against Wolf with two home runs.

Jorge De La Rosa (16-9, 4.45) vs. Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.89)

Kershaw is expected to throw around 90 pitches in his second start since returning from an injury to his non-throwing shoulder.

He worked only four innings last Sunday in his first start back, and he needs to navigate much further into the game to prove that he is ready to take the bump in the postseason.

One thing to keep an eye on will be Brad Hawpe, who wears out young Clayton at the plate. He has collected four hits, two of which were home runs, in just nine career at-bats.

Jason Marquis (15-12, 3.95) vs. TBA

Hiroki Kuroda was scheduled to start, but due to soreness in his neck he won’t be making a final regular season outing.

Torre has not announced who will take the hill, so hopefully the division is locked up by Sunday because if this game is for all the divisional marbles, they need someone who can respond to pressure.