Bengals' Offensive Question Marks Could Hold Team Back from Success Yet Again

The Cincinnati Bengals could quickly be roundhouse kicked by a crippling problem when the 2016 season begins.

No, not the crushing weight of an 0-7 postseason record during the Marvin Lewis era, though the ghost of playoffs past is always hovering.

And no, I’m not talking about the semiannual purge of key coaches. But the loss of offensive coordinator Hue Jackson stings, as a wound can always be left when a coaching mind of that caliber departs.

The gut punch in question is directly tied to the on-field product, and those responsible for keeping the octane flowing steadily throughout the Bengals’ offensive depth chart. The same offense that scored 49 touchdowns in 2015, which is quality scoring production during any year, and especially a season when quarterback Andy Dalton missed three games.

The issue lies within that depth chart. As training camp nears, it’s fair to wonder if the 2016 Bengals will be eaten whole by the swirling vortex across from wide receiver A.J. Green, and the lack of support given to both him and Dalton.

Merely having that Green-Dalton combination can produce plenty of crooked numbers. But as the Detroit Lions found out for many years, employing a stud receiver is only half the battle during this passing-crazed era of NFL football. The other half is the real challenge: surrounding him with an even adequate supporting cast.

The Bengals had that in Marvin Jones, who caught 10 touchdown passes in 2013. Then, after sitting a year due to injury, he stormed back with 816 receiving yards. They also had Mohamed Sanu, who was a solid third option while posting 1,184 yards and five touchdowns on 89 receptions over the past two years.

Most importantly, tight end Tyler Eifert has relieved the burden on Green’s shoulders by growing into the large-bodied football magnet Cincinnati assumed it was drafting with a first-round pick in 2013. Eifert was one of only three tight ends to score double-digit touchdowns in 2015, leading his position with 13.

Now, two of those three weapons are gone, and one will likely miss a chunk of the 2016 season. Suddenly for the Bengals' passing offense it’s Green or bust. And also hoping Green doesn’t bust.

Jones and Sanu left as free agents, taking their turns doing belly-flops into the coin-filled oasis that is free agency for wide receivers every year. This year was lucrative for Jones because he led a weak class at his position. That netted him $20 million in guaranteed cash even though Jones hasn’t logged a 1,000-yard season yet like most others in his pay bracket.

Eifert, meanwhile, hasn’t gone anywhere. He’s still a Bengals employee, and a highly valued one. But he’s a broken one, too, and Eifert will probably miss the first few games of 2016, as ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported in late May:

Eifert fell victim to the Pro Bowl, which gives Monday’s Home Run Derby a close run for the title of worst event on the entire sports calendar. But whereas the only injury threat during the Derby is the pummeling Chris Berman lays on your ears, the Pro Bowl is still a mutilated imitation of football. Meaningful injuries are possible in a meaningless and so, so useless game.

The 25-year-old hobbled away from his first Pro Bowl appearance with a wonky ankle. At first, the injury was shrugged off after tests revealed only a sprain, according to Paul Dehner Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Then, when sluggish healing turned into no healing at all, a deeper problem was discovered.

Eifert needed surgery to repair a loose ligament in his ankle. Since fully functioning ankles are important for someone like Eifert who cuts, turns, pivots and jumps, the healing process can be delicate.

As in three-to-four months delicate, according David Chao, who is SiriusXM NFL Radio’s injury analyst and spent 17 years as the San Diego Chargers' head team physician:

On the high end of Chao's range, Eifert wouldn’t return to football activity until late September. That is a projection echoed by Coley Harvey, the ESPN.com Bengals beat writer who told fantasy analyst Mike Clay that at minimum he doesn’t expect Eifert to be ready for Week 1.

Missing one game is sounding like the most optimistic outcome. A less rosy and still real possibility is up to three games. Then, regardless of how much game time Eifert does or doesn’t miss, how comfortable and effective he is upon his return becomes the more significant question. We’re talking about a player who thrives on being a physical menace in the red zone, and has established himself as a big-play threat with an ability to cut abruptly and find open space.

If Eifert isn’t truly himself well into the season, then what Cincinnati's offense will lose from 2015 grows exponentially. To review, that list is already longer than the longest list of the longest stuff at the longest domain name.

Pass catcher	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Marvin Jones	65	816	4
Mohamed Sanu	33	394	0
Tyler Eifert	52	615	13
Total	150	1,825	17

Those three were on the other end for 46.5 percent of Cincinnati’s passing yards in 2015, along with 44.9 percent of the completions and 54.8 percent of the touchdowns. Sanu and Jones alone were also targeted a combined 152 times.

That’s a steep mountain to scale on all fronts. And to reach the peak while keeping a finely-tuned machine chugging alongside Green it’s up to… Brandon LaFell?

The Bengals didn’t chase the rising dollars Sanu and Jones enjoyed on the open market. They instead choose to replace them in part with a cheaper option in LaFell, who signed a one-year contract worth $2.5 million.

LaFell is only one season removed from setting career highs in receptions (74) and yards (953) with the 2014 New England Patriots. That’s the encouraging recent memory LaFell provides, and it fades fast.

He had the league’s worst drop rate (21.28) among receivers who were thrown to for at least 25 percent of their team’s targets in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus. He dropped 10 balls despite a minimal 69 targets. For an eye-widening comparison on the other end of the scale we can look to the Atlanta Falcons’ Julio Jones. He also dropped 10 passes, but did it while being targeted 193 times.

LaFell didn't go through some blip in 2015, or a slippery hands aberration. It’s hard to decipher which LaFell is the real guy and which one is the impostor who shows up briefly.

In 2014, he finally started to fulfill his ample potential by flirting with a 1,000-yard receiving season. But wildly inconsistent is about the most generous description of his hands and how much any quarterback can trust them.

Year	Drop rate	Drops
2015	21.28	10
2014	6.33	5
2013	14.04	8
2012	6.38	3
2011	5.26	2
2010	15.56	7

When a receiver like Green is on your roster there isn’t necessarily a need for another vertical, turf-scorching burner. I mean, sure, that would be nice because more is always better when we’re wishing for offensive firepower. But in the salary-cap era you usually can’t afford two Batmans, so general managers go about the business of finding a lesser though still reliable Robin.

In this case, the Bengals need someone who can capitalize on the open space created by all the attention paid to Green. They also need someone who can still pose at least a mild threat and attract some of that attention away from Green. Most of all, they need someone who acts as a quarterback’s life ring, keeping him afloat during chaotic times when his first read is blanketed on third down.

History tells us relying on LaFell to meet any of those job requirements is a bet with long odds. He’s given us too many years when you have to squint really, really hard to see him as even a No. 3 receiver. And during the one season when he surged, LaFell was propped up by the brilliance of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who can turn lemons into Lamborghinis.

LaFell’s 2015 season started with five drops in one game. He hasn’t reached a sudden sure-handed epiphany either, as the 29-year-old also struggled with drops throughout OTAs, according to Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com.

He’ll be asked to become the new Jones while hopefully minimizing those drops in a field-stretching role on the outside. Meanwhile, the Bengals are going with Tyler Boyd and the promise of youth to replace Sanu. But Boyd could bring equal doses of uncertainty and potential, which is true for many rookie receivers looking to make an immediate impact.

Cincinnati selected Boyd in the second round with the 55th overall pick this year, and in doing so they grabbed the ideal slot replacement. Sanu ran 87.6 percent of his routes from the slot in 2015, per PFF, and Boyd set school records at the University of Pittsburgh while spending nearly 40 percent of his snaps being used as a shifty slot option, according to College Football Focus. His 254 receptions and 3,361 yards over three years were both school records.

Boyd has the route-running ability and overall skill set to excel on the outside eventually. But as Hobson noted, he’s firmly pegged for slot duty “no matter what.” That's the perfect job for a vice-grip-handed catcher who dropped only 10 of the 182 catchable passes thrown his way between 2014 and 2015, as College Football Focus also observed.

However, modest speed led to a lack of separation and minimal yards after the catch, with the latter a concern in the slot. In 2015, Boyd averaged only 10.2 yards per reception.

Bengals offensive coordinator Ken Zampese told Harvey that even though Boyd’s ceiling is high he’s still raw right now:

That's a fine and perfectly normal way to describe a second-round rookie receiver.

Boyd is tremendously talented as a pass-catcher, and he has the physical tools to blossom into a productive offensive weapon for the Bengals in the near future. But although some have impressed right away in recent years, leaning heavily on any rookie receiver to be an instant-impact performer is dangerous.

Boyd is very much a part of the common theme throughout the Bengals offense: uncertainty.

There’s uncertainty surrounding Eifert’s ankle, and exactly what he’ll be when the Pro Bowler does return. There’s uncertainty lingering around LaFell’s hands, and if he can be a trustworthy complement next to Green. And there’s uncertainty around a rushing offense that averaged only 3.9 yards per carry in 2015 (21st).

The offensive questions are piling up, and answering them could be the difference between finally finding playoff success or seeing a painful drought continue.

All contract info is courtesy of Spotrac.