'Redshirt' Year for Paxton Lynch a Savvy Big-Picture Move by Broncos

When you're the defending Super Bowl champions, you rarely hear the "big picture" discussed. Fans and pundits are much less concerned about down the road than the here and now. Defending that title.

However, smart front offices balance the present and future. They aren't willing to sacrifice long-term success for a chance at some short-term rewards.

And with rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch potentially headed for a season of holding a clipboard and watching the Denver Broncos from the sideline, John Elway is showing the patience and perspective of a general manager who understands that.

According to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, Lynch's odds of seeing much in the way of regular-season action in 2016 are dwindling:

That assessment jibes with what ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold observed from Broncos minicamp—namely that while veteran Mark Sanchez and second-year pro Trevor Siemian are locked in a close battle to start under center in 2016, Lynch is the clear-cut No. 3.

"After Tuesday's OTA practice," Legwold tweeted, "Broncos coach Gary Kubiak said while Mark Sanchez has practiced with the first-team offense of late Sanchez and Trevor Siemian are 'neck and neck' in competition to be starter."

Now, it's worth pointing out training camp hasn't started yet. Depth charts are written in pencil, not pen. And Lynch has done some things right. As Lindsay Jones of USA Today reported back in May, cornerback Aqib Talib saw flashes from Lynch on the practice field—just as he saw moments where Lynch looked like the rookie he is.

“He came out and made some great decisions today. He got that ball out of his hands fast, and that's important in the league,” Talib said. “A couple times Paxton held the ball a little bit. Mark definitely looked like a vet today.”

Is it disappointing that Lynch didn't fare better in OTAs? Only if your expectations for the 22-year-old were unreasonable to begin with.

After all, as ESPN's Trent Dilfer told Kalyn Kahler of The MMQB, it wasn't a state secret that Lynch was a raw prospect coming out of Memphis: "I was surprised that Paxton Lynch went that high, that he was the guy that was targeted by Denver. Not because I don’t like him, but the tape—he was so raw. You know there is going to be a steep learning curve there. I think that was one that I was surprised at, not shocked at, but a little surprised."

Lynch is a talented young passer. It isn't a stretch to say he has the best arm of any quarterback in the 2016 class. And he has the 6'7" size and 244-pound frame pro scouts drool over.

But Lynch is young in his development. He played almost exclusively in the shotgun at Memphis, running a simplified spread offense that required him to make minimal reads before firing the football.

As Elway told Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated at the 2016 scouting combine, that transition from the shotgun to under center is a big leap for a young player:

"

When Brock [Osweiler] came out of college, he was a guy who was in shotgun a lot, and spent a little time underneath [under center]. I think what we’re seeing is quarterbacks coming out of the shotgun a lot more than we were in my day, and really, even 10 years ago. That’s the biggest adjustment for guys coming out—these kids have not been under center. To go through the drops and the reads and the progressions from under center is the development side the young kids have to have now, because you’re going to be under center in the NFL. Not only the rhythm side of it, but the vision side of it—what you can see from under center is different than what you can see in the shotgun. You can see better in the shotgun, and you have to get used to some of your vision not being as great.

"

He isn't ready to direct a pro offense. Not even close. This isn't Andrew Luck coming from a pro-style offense at Stanford. Or Jameis Winston at Florida State. Or even Marcus Mariota and Robert Griffin III—athletes whose teams adjusted offensively to suit their new quarterbacks.

Gary Kubiak is running Gary Kubiak's offense. Period.

It isn't hard to understand why some fans want Lynch to learn by doing. They hear the words "Mark Sanchez" and this instantly pops into their heads:

And while Siemian has generated positive headlines in OTAs, he's a second-year seventh-round pick, the last quarterback drafted in 2015. Just because he played in the Big Ten doesn't make him the next Tom Brady.

Lynch has that tantalizing first-round pedigree. And fans still buzzing from February's Super Bowl win don't want to hear about 2017. They want another deep playoff run this year.

The thing is, there's no guarantee Lynch offers the Broncos a better chance of making that run than Sanchez or Siemian.

Yes, The Sanchize will forever be known for that Turkey Day gaffe against the New England Patriots. But he's also a veteran quarterback who twice led a New York Jets squad that rode their defense and ran the ball to the AFC Championship Game.

Siemian may have been a final-round afterthought out of Northwestern. But as he told Legwold in June, he's been doing everything he can to get his learn on since making the jump to the NFL.

Essentially, he's where the Broncos hope Lynch is one year from now: "I think I’ve been fortunate enough to be in a great situation with awesome guys last year, obviously with Peyton [Manning] and Brock [Osweiler], with great coaching, and that’s all I’ve been trying to do since I got here is take coaching and absorb as much as I can and grow. But I’ve definitely have come a long way."

The wildest part? Just as you can't say Lynch offers the Broncos a better chance to win in 2016, you can't say the Broncos are that much worse off with Sanchez and Siemian than they were a year ago with Manning and Osweiler.

You heard me right.

The Broncos didn't win the Super Bowl last year because of Manning. They won it in spite of him. His 2,249 passing yards and 67.9 passer rating were career lows. He threw 17 interceptions against only nine touchdown passes. Those numbers look a lot like Sanchez's 2012 season in New York—the last time he started more than eight games in a campaign.

For what it's worth, he's been better since then. In two seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, Sanchez had a plus-three touchdown-to-interception ratio and twice posted a passer rating over 80.

Yes, Osweiler's numbers were better than Manning's last year. But if you want to know why the Broncos balked at paying him $18 million a season, look no further than a comparison of Osweiler's stats in 2015 and Sanchez's the year before:

Player	Year	GS	Comp. %	Yards	TD	INT	Rating
Osweiler	2015	7	61.8	1,967	10	6	86.4
Sanchez	2014	8	64.1	2,418	14	11	88.4

The cold, hard truth is this: If the Broncos are going to make another run at the Super Bowl, throwing the ball all over the place isn't getting them to Houston. The defense will carry them—just as it did a year ago.

Kubiak knows that. Elway does, too. Just as they know that throwing Lynch to the wolves won't help. Not enough to risk a developmental project becoming the latest draft-day disappointment in the NFL.

Kubiak told Legwold a couple of weeks ago what he wants to see from one of his quarterbacks in 2016: "I like to see how a guy handles the team, handles the huddle, how he goes about his business, how guys react to him. You’ve heard me say I want to see somebody step out, be that guy, handle the team, be a guy people believe in and follow to get where we need to go."

From all indications, that guy isn't going to be Lynch. Not in 2016, anyway. But that fact isn't an indictment of the youngster.

It's a testimonial to Kubiak and Elway.

And to their ability to see the big picture.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.