From Contenders to Crippled, Houston Rockets Must Defend Playoff Hopes

There's a scene in my favorite movie, Independence Day, where Vivica A. Fox's character, Jasmine, and her on-screen son emerge from the rubble of a Los Angeles tunnel to survey the devastation caused by hostile aliens the night before.

“What happened, mommy?” he asks.

“I don’t know, baby,” Fox's character says, after seeing hundreds of toppled or burning cars and piles of debris where buildings once stood.

Melodramatic as the comparison may seem, I cannot think of a better way to introduce the 2009-2010 Houston Rockets.

You better not question my taste in cinema, either.

To say the team’s off-season was rough would qualify as the understatement of the year. The trail of destruction caused by injuries to Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest’s departure has left coach Rick Adelman with a collection of role players and a tough road to one of the final playoff spots in the rugged Western Conference.

The Rockets brass considers a post-season berth a reasonable and worthy goal. With the Phoenix Suns reduced to a defenseless circus, the L.A. Clippers trying to reverse decades worth of colossal embarrassment, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s youth, and the mess of epic proportions in Golden State, landing the seventh or eighth spot is not crazy talk for banged-up Houston.

It is, however, a sharp turn from the expectations of a year ago, when Artest’s acquisition was supposed to transform a first-round doormat into a championship contender.

McGrady underwent microfracture surgery after stumbling through an uninspired, painful and inconsistent season of play.

His knees failed him, and in turn, he failed the franchise.

Yao Ming broke his foot in the second round against the Lakers, again. Medical exams weeks later revealed the stress fracture in his smashed foot had worsened and could keep him off the court until training camp in 2010.

Rockets players suffer the kinds of injuries for which no executive can plan, ailments best classified as bad luck.

Though 99.9 percent of pro basketball injuries are unpredictable, the incidents in Houston are especially cruel.

So, here come the tattered and offense-challenged Rockets, just hoping to be good enough to become a contender’s first-round snack.

The projected starting center has played zero NBA minutes, with alarming defensive lapses sure to accompany his U.S. inexperience.

The alternatives in the pivot include a 6’6” defensive stalwart with an offensive game that’s, well, offensive, and a 6’10” sophomore who struggled to get on the court in his rookie year because of a prima donna attitude.

David Anderson will improve the more he plays; Chuck Hayes swears he has worked on his foul shooting; Joey Dorsey seems to have the right attitude after a summer of hard work in the gym.

Expecting any of them to replace what 7’6” Yao does (drawing doubles, passing out of them, serving as an offensive focal point, notching 20 and 10 regularly) would be insane.

Instead, Adelman will have to figure out how to fill gaps with no All-Star performers available to command double teams or draw in multiple defenders.

His task is as unenviable and absurd as what soldiers faced at the Alamo. Ambush is certain, with championship hopefuls standing in for the Mexican army.

To use an analogy better suited for the Houston-Galveston area, the roster looks a bit like Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike.

Such challenges, however, will provide proud competitors with a chance to show resolve.

Can a roster loaded with players accustomed to support roles make up for the lacking star power enough to win the number of games needed to make the playoffs?

Owner Leslie Alexander says ticket sales have increased from last year, a laudable accomplishment in a morbid economy.

Toyota Center may be full most nights this season, but Alexander would struggle to fill the arena once with people who think his squad can reach the post-season.

The trio of national networks showing NBA games (I am not including NBA TV) shut out the Rockets from their broadcast schedule, seemingly confirming to casual fans that a star-ravaged squad is not worth watching.

Thankfully for Adelman and the remaining players, playoff seeds are not determined by sex appeal, press clippings, or what anyone on any sports Web site thinks.

Here, then, is a look at what must happen for a post-season berth to become a reality.

Who will carry the scoring load?

Rockets fans should know by now not to trust anything McGrady says.

His declaration that he's ready to play should be taken with a grain of salt.

I am treating McGrady as if he will not return for several months, also factoring in the uncertainty that follows microfracture surgery. No one knows what kind of player he'll be if and when he does return.

With McGrady shelved indefinitely and Yao unlikely to suit up before next fall, the question that will define the team's season becomes more difficult to answer.

The highest scoring average for any active Rockets player in a pro league is 14 points. Shane Battier managed that in his rookie season in Memphis.

Defense does win championships, but you have to be able to put the ball in bucket, too. Who will fill the Rockets' scoring void?

The prime candidates for production hikes are Luis Scola and Aaron Brooks. Both players have demonstrated an ability to create their own shots and each boasts a passable offensive repertoire.

Running a pick-and-roll with Brooks and Scola may not sound as enticing or dangerous as the same play with Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, but it will have to suffice.

Scola owns a diverse low-post game and a reliable mid-range shot that extends as far as 20 feet. He can score with accuracy in the right and left boxes, executing an array of hook shots, up and under moves, and fakes.

He doesn't have to be Tim Duncan (and he won't ever be), but the Rockets will need him to more than the 16 points he offered in the first round against Portland.

Brooks will not reach Tony Parker's elite, Hall of Fame-caliber level, but the Rockets need the water bug point guard to give them a steady 19-20 points in every contest.

There are reasons to believe both players can produce these numbers. The season hinges on it.

Defense still comes with salt

The lack of a dominant scorer necessitates that the Rockets run more, that Adelman return to the offense of his Sacramento days.

The faster tempo will likely cause the team's defensive stats to dip. More shots means more rebounds for both teams. More fast breaks means opponents will score more points.

Opponent field-goal percentage, the number most defensive purists believe to be the best indicator of a team's ability to get stops, should not nosedive.

The Rockets can contend for a playoff spot mostly because they are a proven defensive unit.

Swapping Trevor Ariza and Ron Artest won't hurt them much on the uphill end of the court, since Shane Battier was the superior individual defender last season. The Rockets may miss Artest's ability to frustrate LeBron James, but they won't miss much else.

If Ariza struggles to contain bigger, stronger three men, he excels at staying with speedy guards in the way Artest could not.

Chuck Hayes is one of the game's grittiest and smartest post defenders. Not having Yao to take up space in the middle will hurt a bit, but the defense should remain stingy.

It will also keep the Rockets in a lot of games.

Sans Yao, offense must adapt, stay afloat

More than just an elite scoring center, Yao was a security blanket for a fragile Rockets offense.

The squad will now have to figure out how to score without him. Given the horrendous nature of the team's scoring performances with Yao on the bench, this will prove no easy task.

Game seven at Staples Center, when the team held a high-octane Lakers offense to 89 points, but only managed 70 points of its own, serves as exhibit A.

Team has responded to doubt, lowered expectations

If Phil Jackson's championship squads in Chicago and Los Angeles exemplify being good when you're supposed to be good, Adelman's Rockets are the opposite.

His teams have exceeded expectations as much as they have failed them. Adelman's bunch rarely performs when success is expected and demanded.

The supposed contenders flopped at the beginning of last season when fans thought they would see a consistent winner worthy of challenging the Lakers for West supremacy.

The rancid Rockets alternated wins against playoff squads with dreadful losses to the Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors.

The worst offenses included home losses to the Indiana Pacers and last-place Washington Wizards. A defeat at the hands of the Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker-less Spurs, in which the team blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead, was also an embarrassment.

Then, just as fans had begun to accept mediocrity from a tease, the banged-up Rockets raced into orbit.

They surprised even the staunchest predictors of gloom by winning a playoff series without home court advantage and taking the eventual champs to seven games.

The Rockets could have avoided opening the playoffs on the road and a second-round date with the Lakers had they won in Dallas on the final night of the season.

That, however, is not their style, and it's why games in late April are not out of the question.

With expectations at their lowest, the Rockets will thrive.

While this insouciant attitude is unbecoming of a champion, it perfectly suits this team.

The best moments of the Adelman regime, headlined by the first playoff series win since 1997 and the 22-game win streak of two seasons ago, came when few believed they were possible.

Believe this: that makes the playoffs possible.

The newest Rockets

CHASE BUDINGER

The Arizona product looked like a comfortable scorer in Vegas. He will immediately get some playing time by virtue of a depleted stock at his positions. His defense needs serious repair, and he has yet to do anything in a real NBA game.

DAVID ANDERSON

The Aussie import moves well without the ball and possesses an accurate catch-and-shoot jumper that extends beyond 15 feet. His post game is serviceable and his shooting stroke has been called "sweet."

His defense needs an NBA-level overhaul, and his thin frame makes him an easy target for any opposing center with skill who decides to attack the rim.

JERMAINE TAYLOR

Like Budinger, Taylor projects as an energy scorer in the Von Wafer mold. Wafer was more explosive, but Taylor seems like he will become a smarter pro. He might spend considerable time in the D-League as a rookie, even with McGrady's injury opening up minutes.

TREVOR ARIZA

The crown jewel of GM Daryl Morey's off-season has never starred on a basketball team on any level.

He averaged 11 points on a title team that also featured Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. He will not have the luxury of such teammates in Houston.

Offensively, he can shoot the three-ball accurately and finish on the break. He will earn his mid-level salary, though, as a quick-footed defensive pest.

Can he flash some star potential? The Rockets better hope so.