Fantasy Preview Top 70 Guards

Fantasy Preview: Top 70 Guards

The guards are perhaps the most crucial position for Fantasy Basketball.  Regardless of which type of league you prefer (Rotisserie, Point System, Keeper, etc.) Great Guards could excel in five (Points, Assists, Threes, Steals, FT%) out of the eight typical fantasy stat categories (not included previously were Rebounds, Blocks, and FG%).

Key:

D: Declining Player – Either due to age or lack of minutes this player should see a significant reduction in his numbers.

B: Breakout Candidate – This player is poised for a breakout season and as a result could flourish with an increasing stat line.

R: Risk – Either due to injuries, trade demands, or uncertainty of a new role, this player should be drafted with extreme caution.

S: Sleeper – This player could be undervalued and may be available several rounds later than previously anticipated.  He too can have a very nice stat line due to increased minutes and/or a new situation.

O: Overrated – This player may have a nice season, but other people in your league may overvalue him either due to his recent playoff performance or simply hype. 

1.  Dwayne Wade

Wade had a career year last season, reaching career highs in almost every statistical category: 30.2 PPG, 49.1 FG%, 88 three-pointers made (3PTM), 7.5 APG, and 173 steals.

There is no reason to believe Wade will not continue these phenomenal numbers going into next season.  The Heat still don’t have an adept starting caliber point guard which will mean the ball will be constantly going through Mr. Wade’s hands.

2.  Chris Paul

Chris Paul has now been dubbed the top point guard in the game of basketball and the same can be said for his fantasy status.  Paul enjoyed a stellar season in which he averaged, 22.8 PPG, on 50.3% shooting from the field, and 86.8% from the line.  He can literally win you 2 categories: Steals and Assist.  He dished out 11 dimes per game, and accumulated 216 steals.

3. Kobe Bryant   O, D

There’s not much that can go wrong with the reigning Finals MVP.  Kobe did enjoy a nice stat line last season: 26.8 PPG, 85.6 FT%, 118 3PTM.  There should be some slight caution here by fantasy owners.  Kobe has suffered a steady dip in his scoring and rebounding numbers.  This is likely due to the addition of Pau Gasol and less minutes, but expect the same type of decline considering the team added another major contributor in Ron Artest.

4. Deron Williams

D-Will did miss some time last season, but don’t let the 68 games fool you.  Deron is usually healthy having played at least 80 games in the three previous seasons prior to 2008-09.  When healthy Williams averaged 19.4 PPG and 10.7 APG.  Those two categories have been increasing steadily ever since the Illinois product entered the league in 2005.  Expect that trend to continue heading into 2009-2010.

5. Derrick Rose   B, O

Rose enjoyed a nice coming out party both literally and statistically.  He averaged 16.8 PPG, 6.3 APG while shooting a modest 47.5% from the field and 79% from the line.

Derrick’s hype grew large with a terrific opening round series vs. Boston in which he averaged near 20 points and over 6 rebounds and 6 assists per game.  Rose has already been handed the keys to the Bulls franchise and his play on the court will further indicate that next season.  Rose may be able to keep up numbers mirroring his playoff stat line, but do not get sucked into the hype that he will overtake Chris Paul as the league’s top point guard.

6. Brandon Roy  

Roy enjoyed another exceptional season in which he scored a career high of 22.6 PPG and made 83 threes.  Finding a high percentage shooting 2-guard is not easy in this league and Roy may be the exception.  He shot a solid 48% from the field and 82% from the line.  With Andre Miller alongside him, he may experience a decrease from his 5.1 APG, but could increase his shooting percentages and at least stay steady with his scoring out put.

7. Andre Iguodala    B

The absence of Andre Miller will undoubtedly hurt the Sixers organization, but at the very least will at least help Iggy’s offensive production across the board.

Andre is what we call in fantasy terms, a stat sheet filler.  He gives you scoring (18.8 PPG), modest shooting percentages (47 FG%), RPG (5.7 RPG), APG (5.3), and Steals (131).  Without Miller in Philly, Andre should see a steady climb in scoring, 3PTM, and assists.  He may; however, shoot lower from the field and increase his turnovers without a legitimate point guard by his side.

8. Devin Harris    B

Yes one can say Harris already experienced a breakout season last year in which he made the All Star team and had career averages of 21.3 PPG, 6.9 APG, and 114 Steals.  Still, with Vince Carter out of the swamplands, Harris should see a large increase in his offensive production and is now considered the Nets’ consummate franchise player.

Do not get too giddy on Harris just yet.  Devin did shoot a paltry 43.8 from the field, a number that will likely deep further considering the abundance of shots he will likely take next season. 

9.  Tony Parker O

The French sensation topped career averages last season in points (22 PPG) and assists (6.9 APG).  Parker also shot over 50% from the field and 78% from the line. With the Timmy D continuing to season and more reliance on the offense going through Parker, it is safe to assume another steady statistical incline is in order.  Many fantasy owners may see Parker’s name; however, and immediately think All Stars, Finals MVP, and Evan Longoria.  Nevertheless he still remains a top 10 fantasy guard.

10. Steve Nash     D

Steve Nash will turn 35 next season. I repeat…35.  The former two-time MVP did average 9.7 APG, shot over 50% from the field, and a whopping 93% from the line.  Considering his age and already steady signs of declining; however, expect Nash’s offensive production to take another dip next season.      

11.  Joe Johnson    D

Typically a 27-year old franchise player entering his prime should mean he doesn’t go past the 2^nd round.  Right?  This used to be the case for JJ, but perhaps not entering next season.  Johnson saw his steady statistical climb plateau last season.  Now with the addition of Jamaal Crawford Atlanta seems decided to reduce the 3123 minutes Johnson played last season.  With reduced minutes and a 6^th man capable of taking away some of the scoring load, expect Johnson’s numbers to decrease ever so slightly.

12. Gilbert Arenas R, S

Gilbert has not played a full season of basketball since the 06-07 campaign.  He has been hobbled by injuries and in the process has perhaps lost some of his athletic abilities.  This is the same Arenas though that 2 seasons ago averaged over 28 PPG, 6 APG, and connected on over 200 threes.  Many may have forgotten about precisely how lethal Arenas was, but again that was two years ago.  At the 11^th spotted guard, if agent zero is available in the 3^rd or 4^th round he may be worth taking a flier on.  The coaching staff and his PR crew are raving about how great he looks.  If he is even 75% of what he used to be, he’s a nice option on your fantasy squad.

13. Monta Ellis            B, S

Monta only appeared in 25 games last season, but that was mainly due to a suspension he had suffered.  Over the least two seasons Ellis scored around 20 PPG, shot around 50% from the field, 80% from the line, and around 1.5 steals per game.  The Warriors will shift their focus to Ellis even more next season.  Expect more shot opportunities and an increase from his 12 3PTM two seasons ago.  Ellis should hover around 23 PPG, still shoot over 50% from the field all while increasing his assist totals in the process.  An up-tempo Nellie offense doesn’t hurt either.

14. Kevin Martin  R

The other K-Mart only played in a combined 112 games over the past two seasons.  Kings front office did indicate that his previous injury concerns were more or less flukes.  One should still proceed with caution.  Still, Kevin has increased his scoring average consistently every season since he has entered the league and is amongst the top 3-point marksmen.  He also is amongst the top free throw shooters in the league, so that 87% will help your overall percentages.

15.  Rajon Rondo  O, B

Rondo’s market value nationwide drastically increased after the former Kentucky standout averaged a triple-double in a 7 game first round series vs. Chicago.  Don’t allow the hype to misconstrue.  Rondo did reach highs last season in assists (8.2 per), steals (149 thefts), field goal percentage (50.5%), and scoring (11.9 ppg).  He is in a contract year and should see even more minutes at the point guard position.  Expect Rondo’s production to see a nice increase this season, but do not expect anywhere near the Oscar Robertson like performance he displayed during last season’s playoffs.  

16. Baron Davis    R

B-Diddy, as the kids like to call him, has only topped 70 games once in the last 9 NBA seasons.  Last season he essentially gave up on the Clippers and you can see it in his style of play.  Averages of 14.9 PPG and a 37 FG% are atypical of the UCLA product.  Now; however, with Blake Griffin in the picture and a more positive attitude surrounding Clipper land, expect Davis’ numbers to fall closer to his 07-08 season with the Warriors (21.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, 191 steals, 173 3ptm) than the disappointment of last season.

17. Chauncey Billups              O, D

CB4 was a fantastic fit for Denver last season.  His leadership catapulted the Nuggets into the Western Conference.  Chauncey is coming off a solid season: 17.9 PPG, 6.4 APG, and over 91 FT%.

Billups; however, is starting to age quite a bit.  The Nuggets front office realized this and acquired Ty Lawson from Minnesota on draft night.  Billups should see reduced minutes and will thus have a decreasing stat line.

18.  Tracy McGrady                     R, B

Breakout?  McGrady already had his breakout seasons a half decade ago when he was one of the premier scorers in the league as a member of the Orlando Magic.  Two Words: Contract Year.  Tracy is clearly heavily focused on his prospects come 2010.  He intentionally sat out last year when word came out he was on the verge of being traded to New Jersey.  Now with his contract expiring, McGrady has vowed full health again…what a miracle.  Regardless of his strange indecisively injured statuses, Tracy will need to produce far greater numbers that at least mimic his early years on Houston (around 25 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 5 RPG) if he wants an extension.  No Yao Ming in the picture should also mean a far heavier reliance on Coach Adelman to play the offense through T-Mac.  Despite all of this be remain wary.  Tracy McGrady has played in fewer than 70 games in three of the last four seasons.

19.  Vince Carter  D, R

VC’s scoring averages have shown a steady decline over the last 6 seasons.  His 20.8 PPG and 5.1 RPG were the lowest since the 2004-05 season.  Carter does have a propensity to be one of the few guards capable of averaging over 20 PPG, 5 RPG, and 4 APG.  In Orlando though his role is still uncertain.  Shots will be taken away from VC to enable Nelson to proper develop and more post plays for Howard.  With stars already in place in Orlando, expect an even greater decline next season from Mr. Carter.

20.   Andre Miller  

Dre’ played well last season in Philly averaging over 16 PPG, dishing out 6.5 APG, grabbing 4.5 RPG, taking away 173 total steals, and shooting over 47% from the field and 82% from the line.  Miller is a steady, solid, consistent contributor.  No surprises with this point guard.  Now with a new Portland team his scoring totals may go down a bit considering he could be as low as the 4^th offensive option on the squad (behind Roy, Aldridge, and possibly Oden).  His Assists per game average could go up a tad, but more or less expect a similar seasons to last years with the Sixers.

21.  OJ Mayo     B, R

OJ Mayo should be poised for a breakout season in 2010-11.  Last season he posted stellar numbers for a rookie: 18.5 PPG, 88% FT, 145 3PM, 91 Steals, nearly 4 RPG, and over three APG.  The reason I use the word should is because one needs to be wary of the two offensive new comers to the roster: Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson.  Both AI and Z-Bo need the ball to be effective and may need to use next season to catapult their individual careers.  As a rebuilding team the Grizzlies M.O should be to play the offense through Mayo.  If they do this, OJ should have a stellar season in which his numbers across the board could increase by 20%.  It is still worth the risk snagging if he’s available him in the 4-6^th rounds.

22.  Jason Kidd    D

Kidd is no longer the fantasy stud being worthy of first or second round selections.  Last season Kidd did put together a nice season across the board: 8.7 APG, 6.2 RPG, and 160 steals.  Do not expect any offensive production from this guard.  In fact, sometimes his paltry 41% field goal percentage can really damage a squad in that category.  With Dallas seemingly aiming for a more up tempo attack, Kidd’s assist totals may even slightly increase, but Coach Rick Carlisle will be hesitant giving this future hall of fame candidate excessive minutes at the ripe age of 36.

23.  Ray Allen              D

Allen had a solid bounce back season in 2008-09 where he averaged over 18 ppg, shot 48% from the floor, over 95% from the line, and connected on 199 threes.  Ray’s offensive production is nice for any league containing FG% or FT% as a category.  His 3PM can actually catapult your squad heavily in that category.  With the addition of Marquis Daniels Ray’s minutes may start to decline, but do remember that this is a contract year for Mr. Allen.

24. Jose Calderon

If you’re looking for percentages and assists, Jose is your man.  Calderon last season dished out nearly nine dimes per contest and shot roughly 50% from the field and an astonishing 98% from the line.   Jose’s assist totals have shown a steady increase ever since he entered the league in 2005.  The addition of Jarrett Jack may truncate his statistics slightly, but new wing offensive options such as Hedo Turkuglu and DeMar DeRozen could translate into an assist average that flirts with double digits.

25.    Jameer Nelson    B, R, O

Nelson deserves three letters here.  He has breakout potential considering his play before the break last season and the notion of him entering his prime.  He’s also a risk due to the addition of Vince Carter.  With VC now in Orlando, Nelson seems positioned to be the 4^th option in the offense behind Carter, Dwight Howard, and Rashard Lewis.  Finally, Jameer is also fairly overrated.  He made the All Star team last season mainly because David Stern felt the Magic deserved three representatives.  Nelson’s numbers may be quite different from the 16.7 PPG and 5.4 APG he posted last season.  Those numbers could be slightly less considering Vincanity’s presence at the two-guard.  Let someone else overrate him and draft him in one of the first four rounds of the fantasy draft.

26.    Mo Williams  

Mo Williams had a so-so first season with C-town.  He averaged nearly 18 points per contest, hit an impressive 183 threes, shot over 91% from the free-throw line, but only delivered a mediocre 4.1 assists per game.  With Shaq now in the picture common knowledge would assume Mo’s assists totals to increase and perhaps scoring totals to decrease ever so slightly.  If Mo can find an assist average somewhere in between his Milwaukee days (over 6) and what he dished out last season, he’d be a solid pick in the 5^th round of any fantasy draft.

27.  Ben Gordon           B

Joe Dumars spent way too much money this past off-season (5 years, $58M) on Ben Gordon not to use him appropriately.  Gordon is a pure scorer averaging 20.7 PPG last season and hit 173 three pointers.  Now in Detroit, more offensive plays will be run through Gordon so expect a 15% increase across the board from this Connecticut product.

28.   John Salmons

Losing Ben Gordon may hurt Chicago down the stretch, but it certainly helps John Salmons’ numbers next season.  With 26 games as Bull last season (after being traded from Sacramento mid-season) Salmons averaged 18.3 PPG, shot nearly 48% from the field, 82% from the line, connected on 126 three-pointers, and grabbed a modest 4.2 rebounds per contest.  Salmons clearly fills a stat sheet quite nicely.  John’s scoring numbers have also seen a nice climb every season since he entered the league in 2004 with Philly.  Loul Deng; however, is supposedly healthy to start for the Bulls next season.  Deng’s production at small forward may counter Salmons’ a bit, but the departure of Ben Gordon should counter balance Salmon’s production to a hefty degree.  Expect John’s scoring average to flirt with 20 ppg and his rebounding totals to increase ever so slightly as well.

29.    Mike Bibby     D

Bibby’s numbers last season were respectable.  He averaged 15 ppg, five assists, and hit 167 threes last season.  The Hawks have acquired combo guard, Jamaal Crawford, this off-season that should result in fewer minutes and a decreasing stat line for Mike.  Bibby should still see a hefty dosage of minutes at the point guard slot warranting a relatively similar output than that which he produced last season.

30.  Jason Terry   O

The Jet played in perhaps his best NBA season in 2008-09 averaging 19.6 PPG and being amongst the league leaders in threes made with 198.  Terry’s wonderful season could be attributed to Jason Kidd, but does seem somewhat atypical for him.  Terry has never been known for being a fantasy stat stuffer.  A solid scoring average and hefty amount of 3pm should be in order, but do not expect a duplicate performance of last season.

31.  Louis Williams            B, S

He could be the steal of your draft.  Lou is coming off a modest season where he averaged 12.8 ppg, 3 apg, but shot an undesirable 40% from the floor.  Sixers management though has some very high hopes for Lou this coming season.  They opted not to re-sign former point guard Andre Miller leaving the door wide open for Lou to be the team’s starting point.  Lou Williams should see a major increase in minutes and will be able to dominate the ball a decent amount on the offensive end.  Numbers such as 15 ppg, 4.5 apg, and 1.4 spg (steals per game) won’t be surprising to see. 

32.  Michael Redd   R, D

Caution: Michael Redd only played in 33 games in an injury-riddled season and has seen his scoring average decrease over the last three years.  So now we know two things: Michael is a risky pick and a declining talent.  The Bucks have also traded away Richard Jefferson, handed point guard duties to a 19-year old rookie (Brandon Jennings) and are clearly rebuilding.  Coach Skiles may play Redd fewer minutes and/or have the ball move through young talent such as Andrew Bogut, Joe Alexander, and Brandon Jennings much more next season.  Michael Redd when healthy though is a strong asset to have on your squad.  Last season he averaged 21.2 ppg and made over two 3s a contest Michael Redd at his best; however, will only really help your squad in those two categories.  Given his on going injury concerns and uncertainty of role, hesitate to take him until later rounds.

33.  Ramon Sessions                     B

The Minnesota Timberwolves were heavily criticized on draft night for selecting a plethora of point guards.  Since that night the team has actually found a gaping hole at the starting two slot (with the departure of Randy Foye).  Sessions may not be a true point guard, but it doesn’t seem that new GM David Kahn cares.  New coach Kurt Rambis seems willing to start two point guards in the same backcourt (Sessions and rookie Johnny Flynn).  Last season Sessions averaged 12.4 ppg and 5.7 apg.  Expect those scoring totals to increase and perhaps the assist numbers to stay steady around 5.5.

34.    TJ Ford       

Ford experienced a modest stat line last season: 14.9 ppg, 5.3 apg, and 87% from the line.  His assists numbers specifically have also declined over the last three seasons.  Jarrett Jack and Marquis Daniels are both gone which could mean a stronger reliance at the point position for this Texas product.  Ford’s point totals shouldn’t change much, but expect his assist averages to increase ever so slightly.

35. Jason Richardson                 O

J-Rich’s numbers decreased over the past two seasons, but there is some optimism heading into 2010-2011.  Shaq is gone which means more scoring for both STAT and Richardson.  It also means the full-fledged up-tempo style is back.  Expect Jason to be closer to his 19 ppg, 5 RPG, 3 apg next season.

The Rest

36. Mike Connelly JR           R, B

If he gets minutes he could break out, but if AI gets increasing minutes at the 1 stay away.

37. Manu Ginobili                       D, R    

Manu is getting himself into an injury pattern.  With RJ in there anyhow, expect offensive numbers to take a dip anyhow.

38. Richard Hamilton                     D, R

Unsure where he fits alongside Gordon and Stuckey and is starting to get some grey hairs

39. Jamaal Crawford                   D, R

Atlanta may play him 30+ minutes, but even if they do Jamaal is still the 4^th option at best behind Johnson, Smith, and Horford/Bibby.

40. Larry Hughes                       S

People have written off Hughes, but Larry will produce across all fantasy cats under coach D’Antoni once again.

41. Allen Iverson                       R, S

Probably not declining as much as people think, but if Iverson can get minutes he is a very valuable fantasy guard.

42. Nate Robinson                    B, O

People love Nate, but do remember he’s more likely not in New York’s long-term plans, so don’t expect the high-octane offensive stud you saw last season.  Then again who else is there to score, so the opposite may be true.

43. JR Smith                          B

JR is suppose to breakout one of these seasons.  Denver does have a plethora of scorers, but this likely 6^th man can also get you many threes.

44. DJ Augustine                   B

The Felton no-signing seems even more indication that DJ will start for Charlotte next season.  Expect a nice increasing stat line from this potential 2^nd year now starter.

45. Rodney Stuckey                      B, R

The Guard rotation in Detroit is tight with Hamilton and Gordon also looking to make a fantasy impact in the Motor City.

46. Eric Gordon                      B

Bring out the 2^nd year potential break out candidates.  Davis’ increasing enthusiasm should be beneficial for Gordon who can now showcase more off the ball.

47. Chris Duhon            D

Duhon enjoyed a stellar start to the fantasy season last year.  With Hughes now at the two-slot, expect fewer dimes and threes from this former Blue Devil.

48. Ray Felton            R

No team has signed him yet so it’s uncertain what situation he’ll be in.  Pending on the situation though, Felton is a top 30 guard, unless it is spent backing up DJ Augustine in Charlotte.

49. Brandon Jennings                      R

Drafting a Rook high is always a risk, especially one who hasn’t played significant minutes on a basketball court in sometime.  Despite this, the 19 year-old showed enough promise in summer league to warrant a top 50-guard selection.

50. Russell Westbrook           B

His percentages and turnover rate will make you cringe tumultuously.  Still, the UCLA product is due for a big season as OKC’s number 3 option.

51. Leandro Barbosa                     D, O

Barbosa was nice when Mike D’Antoni was the coach, but even if the Suns still go up-tempo, one should be wary selecting the Brazilian Blur.  Barbosa really only helps your squad at 2 categories tops, if that (3s and points).

52. Aaron Brooks                       B

With no Ming the Rockets may run more up-tempo as they did in the playoffs when the Asian Sensation was out.  If that’s the case, Brooks should be a top 40 pick.  Expect solid contributions in assists and 3ptm.

53. Delonte West

Contract negotiations are on going, but West produces nicely amongst all fantasy categories…especially for a guard.

54. Kirk Hinrich

Derrick Rose’s likely increase in minutes and stat production hurts him, but the departure of Gordon helps him.  Expect scoring in the teens and a little less than 5 apg from this former Jayhawks.

55. Ronnie Brewer

Brewer has been a steady fantasy contributor over the last several seasons.  Solid scoring in the teens, but hefty number in steals sets him apart from the pack.

56. Courtney Lee     B, S

Lee should be the number one scoring wing on a team that just lost a ton of points thanks to the departure of Vince Carter.

57. Johnny Flynn

Flynn seems set to take the starting PG job in Minnesota.  He should be a solid assist contributor as he was all years at Syracuse.

58. Tyreke Evans

Expect plenty of turnovers, plenty of inconsistency, but also plenty of minutes for the 4^th pick of the NBA draft.

59. Randy Foye

His role in Washington is to be determined.  Perhaps it is safe to say he will be the 2^nd guard on a lineup that outside of Arenas has no other assist man.

60. Raja Bell              D

Expect a steady dose of threes and a sprinkle of steals. Oh and throw in some favoritism from head coach Larry Brown.

61. James Harden

Should be a solid 13 ppg, 5 RPG guy even as a rookie in OKC.

62. Mario Chalmers

Gives you a nice amount of steals.  Useful in 8 category rotisserie leagues

63. Jarrett Jack

He is backing up Jose, but if given minutes, Jack is a 14 and 4 guard.

64. Rudy Fernandez                  S

If he’s a starter, then he could be the steal of the draft.  Otherwise, he’ll help your squad with 3ptm.

65. Derek Fisher             D

You know what you’ll get with Fish…3ptm and steals.

66. JJ Barea

The lesser of Dallas’ three-guard rotation, JJ can sprinkle threes and steals.

67. Francisco Garcia

Probably better suited as a waiver wire pickup, Garcia’s value can instantly increase once Martin or Evans go down with injury.

68. CJ Watson

Should be slated to start the season at PG for the Warriors.  Watson should put in a nice amount of threes and even some scoring from a late fantasy pick.

69. Marquis Daniels           

Enjoyed a nice fantasy season last year, but could be a surprise off Boston’s bench this season.  Expect some steals, rebounds, and even assists from this new Celtic.

70. Roger Mason JR                   D

Really just a one category guy, 3ptm.