England Must Not Take a United Iceland Lightly in Euro 2016 Knockout Stage
England braced themselves for a reckoning with the past on Wednesday as they waited to find out their opponents in the Euro 2016 round of 16.
From Group F came the possibility of a reunion with Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal, their tournament foes of Euro 2004 and World Cup 2006, respectively.
Meeting Hungary would have meant unwanted reminisces of Nandor Hidegkuti, Ferenc Puskas and the prospect of another reputation-damaging clash to hark back to their classic mid-1950s meetings.
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Austria would have been stretching it for significance, but history buffs would have appreciated the links to distant clashes involving tales of Matthias Sindelar and the "Lion of Vienna" Nat Lofthouse.
Iceland bring no such previous history to the table—England have met them just twice before, in friendlies. What this impressively united surprise package of the European Championship do present is a challenge Roy Hodgson and his squad must not take lightly.
Iceland are far from unknown to their upcoming opponents, in football terms or culturally.
Indeed, it would be a surprise if English television broadcasters have not already prepared a copy of Bjork's version of "It's Oh So Quiet" in case they need to soundtrack a montage of shocked England players, staff and supporters reeling from defeat.
With British-based players such as Charlton Athletic's Johann Gudmundsson and Swansea City's Gylfi Sigurdsson among them, there was extra reason to keep an eye on Iceland's impressive qualifying campaign (former Premier League star Eidur Gudjohnsen is also still on the squad's periphery). It featured wins over Czech Republic and Turkey and two over the Netherlands, the latter of which significantly contributed to the more fancied Dutch missing out altogether.
Having qualified automatically for France, Lars Lagerback and Heimir Hallgrimsson's first-time participants have not looked out of their depth for a second.
They were good in their draw against group favourites Portugal and were not far off securing a famous first win over Hungary. That momentous victory was secured in the group closer with Austria, Arnor Ingvi Traustason's stoppage-time sealing a 2-1 win that secured the date with England in Nice.
It also prompted an understandably emotional reaction from all who supported their boys in blue (listen below):
Iceland have fielded the same starting XI in all three matches. Joint-manager Hallgrimsson is naturally delighted with the team's achievement (see below), not to mention the performance that got them to this point.
""How big a deal is this for Iceland? I would guess we will have to change our national holiday!" #ISL #EURO2016 pic.twitter.com/6Z3BGHBqRt
— UEFA EURO 2016 (@UEFAEURO) June 23, 2016"
"We were lucky on occasions, but we showed a fantastic mentality throughout the game," he said, per UEFA's official website. "We are very proud of our squad and our players and we have to give them a lot of credit for this game."
There is considerable excitement among their ranks that they will be facing England in their first major-tournament knockout game.
"We said when we've seen how the group stages work, and who plays who afterwards, if we were to get England it would be the perfect game," Sigurdsson said of an opponent featuring former Tottenham Hotspur team-mates Harry Kane, Danny Rose and Kyle Walker, per UEFA.com. "And we got England, so we're really looking forward to it."
Striker Jon Dadi Bodvarsson described England as "the dream team for me, it's the team I rooted for when I was young, watching the European Championship and the World Cup, so it will be fantastic to meet them."
But for Iceland it is far from just a case of playing against friends and players they have admired over the years (England is the closest major footballing nation to the European outpost, which helps explain the latter). They hope to use the familiarity in their favour.
"Icelanders know everything about English football—we are English football-crazy—we don't need to analyse them much," Hallgrimsson said.
England do, on the other hand, have to prepare for a team who are proving one of the tournament's most difficult to break down.
The first thoughts from the wider footballing public here have been that facing Iceland is much preferable to facing Portugal (Bleacher Report's own social media reaction, seen above, reflected as much).
Fernando Santos' team may have barely scraped through Group F, but any country possessing the likes of the formidable William Carvalho, the tricky Nani and the often unstoppable Ronaldo are still very dangerous.
Iceland do not boast as many well-known names and, as noted, are newcomers to the big international stage. Yet Hodgson is well aware of the task at hand, and the need to make "sure the players know as much as we can tell them about Iceland and the type of game they're likely to face."
Hodgson is understandably wary that England could be set to face a repeat of the dynamic of their own group games. They dominated against Russia, Wales and Slovakia but struggled to break down teams largely happy to sit back and defend.
"I know the [joint] coach Lars Lagerback very well and he always prepares his teams extremely well in that way, so I don't think we're going to benefit from lots and lots of space in the game," Hodgson warned. His subsequent analysis of Iceland suggested he at least is well-aware of what England will face:
"Their success has been built on a very solid defensive organisation and an incredibly hard work ethic.
We'll have to make certain that we are aware of that and hope that we can keep the domination that we've had in games and the control we've had in the games, but maybe be a bit more ruthless and have more of a killer instinct in front of goal.
"
Keeping the "domination" and "control" Hodgson talks about will not come automatically. Iceland play with a certain caution, but their good shape and organisation extends to the way they attack.
Against Austria both their goals—Bodvarsson meeting Kari Arnason's flick on from a long Aron Gunnarsson throw for the first and Traustason finishing a counter for the second—reflected that cohesiveness. They almost scored even earlier when Gudmundsson hit the bar following a fine advance featuring some great passing interchanges in midfield, while later on similarly fine successive exchanges between Birkir Bjarnason and Bodvarsson led to a Sigurdsson chance (Gylfi, not the defender Ragnar).
The left-sided (but not entirely restricted) Bjarnason and the central Sigurdsson are particularly dangerous and lead those England must look to contain. Still, the Group B runners-up will expect to be on the front foot more often than not.
Just what Hodgson has in mind for his starting lineup and formation will likely filter out in the coming days.
There is not necessarily a whole lot he can do to develop the penalty-box ruthlessness and killer instinct his side lacked against Slovakia. But watching Iceland up until now in this tournament, he and his coaching staff will surely pinpoint second balls in their territory as a notable weakness.
Iceland defend a first attack or movement from the opposition well, but when it comes in again they can struggle to regroup and get caught ball-watching. Their good shape can quickly turn into rigidness.
It happened a few times against Austria. David Alaba twice found himself in behind the Iceland midfield, almost able to pick out Marko Arnautovic on one occasion and successfully finding Marc Janko later on. The striker successfully turned and played in Alessandro Schopf, who was well-denied by goalkeeper Hannes Halldorsson.
Birkir Saevarsson's unfortunate late own goal against Hungary also resulted from a failure from Iceland's left-sided men to track Nemanja Nikolic into the channel after his pass inside.
A proper front two for England could be ideal for occupying and catching out Iceland here. Perhaps a bigger focal point like Harry Kane could get up and in between the centre-backs, with a Daniel Sturridge or Jamie Vardy nearby to combine with him.
A consistent runner from midfield will also be crucial in exposing any Iceland lapses in concentration. Be it a Dele Alli, Wayne Rooney or Jordan Henderson, they need someone whose focus is getting beyond their counterparts. With Eric Dier shielding further back, they should be able to get away with a nominal attacking midfielder (the same applies if England play a front three again, too).
Besides the need for such positive and aggressive movement, England will need to move the ball a little quicker when they can. Width from the full-backs will again be useful, but they cannot rely on crosses to catch out the sturdy central defensive pair of Arnason and Sigurdsson.
It could all prove simple enough for England. But with Iceland having done as well as they have so far, they should not count on it.
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