Italy Must Keep Momentum Going in Group Finale Against Ireland

The group stage of the 2016 UEFA European Championship is drawing to a close, and Italy are sitting pretty in Group E.

By virtue of their victories over Belgium and Sweden, the Azzurri have sealed top spot in the group.  They're one of only two teams in the field to have at least six points in the group without having conceded a goal.  For them, the final group match against the Republic of Ireland is a dead rubber in every sense of the term.

However, even though the game won't mean anything in terms of how they qualify, it's still important for the Italians to put in a good performance on Wednesday.  With the degree of difficulty about to ratchet up in the knockout rounds, it will be important to maintain the momentum they have gathered during the first two games.

That will require a delicate balancing act from manager Antonio Conte.  With the top spot in the group secure, the Italy boss can afford to rotate his team, both to give rest to his relatively ageing roster and to shield some important players who are carrying yellow cards.

The card slate doesn't get cleared until after the quarter-finals, and a few key pieces are in danger of suspension.  Midfielder Daniele De Rossi picked up a booking in Friday's game against Sweden, but even more important is the situation at the back.

Italy's biggest strength—arguably their only strength—is their defence.  The unit, lifted whole from Serie A champions Juventus, could be the best in the world.

Known by the club's fans as the BBC—not to be confused with the attacking line with the same nickname at Real Madrid—Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini have played with each other for five-and-a-half seasons and practically think as one.  Any disruption of that group could prove fatal.

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Both Bonucci and Chiellini picked up cards in the opening match against Belgium, so any infraction strong enough for referee Ovidiu Hategan to bring out his book would mean they miss the round-of-16 game, which will presumably be against Croatia.

Conte will almost certainly rest at least one of the duo for Angelo Ogbonna, who is familiar enough with his 3-5-2 system after spending two years at Juve.  The Azzurri manager has also experimented with Matteo Darmian as part of the back three during qualifying and could use him to rest both, but La Gazzetta dello Sport reported on Monday (h/t Football Italia) that the Manchester United defender is not at optimal condition.

Conte also has the midfield to consider.  Apart from De Rossi's yellow, Marco Parolo and Emanuele Giaccherini have been running like madmen over the first two games and deserve to rest.  With Antonio Candreva dealing with an injury, the entire midfield could potentially change.

The strikers could also be rotated to give Conte a chance to see whether a new pairing could offer something fresh up front.  Even goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon could be rested after suffering flu-like symptoms for much of the weekend.

With so much potential turnover, this game could be Conte's biggest coaching challenge in the group stage.  He has to figure out how to keep the intensity and focus the team has shown in the first two games with a new-look starting XI.

They need to maintain that level against a Republic team that, like Sweden, is going to be difficult to break down.  If the Italians flop, it could stall their momentum in their tracks and bring up a whole new set of questions going into the knockout round.

They're not going to have the luxury of simply playing the game out, either.  The Republic got lucky on Friday when Eder curled the game winner past Sweden goalkeeper Andreas Isaksson.  That kept the Irish level with the Swedes on points and kept them in contention for one of the four places in the round of 16 available to third-place teams.

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If they beat Italy and Sweden fail to win against Belgium, that would put them in third on four points and jump them in the third-place rankings over Group A representative Albania, who have already completed their slate.

They have their work cut out for them.  The Azzurri will be tough nuts to crack regardless of who plays, and the Republic are similar to Italy in that they aren't the kind of team that can break down a set defence.  Both are at their best playing on the counter—although even then the Irish sometimes can't close the deal.

According to WhoScored.com, the Republic recorded 10 shots against Belgium on Saturday but failed to hit the target once.  Against Sweden they put the ball on frame four times out of nine and hit the woodwork with another.  The consistency simply isn't there.

The Italians, on the other hand, have been relatively efficient.  Against Belgium they hit the target with half of their 12 shots, and three of eight against the Swedes.  Three of those nine shots on target have hit the back of the net, and two more were the subject of superhuman saves by Belgium's Thibaut Courtois—the kind that only a handful of goalkeepers in the world can make.

Whether or not they can keep that going depends on what Conte decides to do with the lineup, particularly the forwards.  Simone Zaza, who came on as a sub on the hour mark against Sweden, gave the team a much-needed dose of pace up front that helped pull the Swedish defence apart enough to get a few shots in.

Conte has relied on the relatively immobile Graziano Pelle paired with the more mobile Eder, but it could be worth seeing how Lorenzo Insigne—by far the most mobile and creative forward on Conte's roster—could do against a defense that will be harder to counter-attack against.

Whatever Conte decides, he must make sure that the players on the field play with the same intensity they showed in the first two matches.

He may be doing so on the training ground.  La Gazzetta dello Sport reported on Monday (h/t Football Italia) that Conte has been using a new high-tech, high-intensity regimen on the practice field.

That would be unorthodox for a big summer tournament, where training is usually on the lighter side to keep players fresh after long seasons.  Conte could be trying to use his training sessions to keep the intensity up at all times.

Of course, Conte has been scrupulous about keeping his sessions under wraps, so this could be more speculation than substance.  But it wouldn't be a surprise if he was keeping his team working in order to keep their energy up.

Wednesday's game doesn't have any competitive ramifications for Italy, but its psychological effect could be huge.  

Keep up their early-tournament form, and they would go into the knockout phase with a full head of steam behind them.  Break down, and they could face the round of 16 needing to pick themselves back up and make it that much harder to advance.