UFC 199: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 199 goes down this Saturday in the House that Magic Built, also known as the Forum in Inglewood, California.
You know what that means: It's showtime.
For the young people in the audience—and I hate all of you—these are references to the Los Angeles Lakers, the professional basketball team that won many titles in a decade called the 1980s. Their leader was point guard Earvin "Magic" Johnson, who ran an uptempo, high-excitement kind of game. Think Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors, except with passing and running instead of shooting.
In any case, because they were so fun to watch, it was like watching a great "show." Hence the team's unofficial nickname: Showtime. And they played at the Forum, which I thought had been demolished years ago!
Thanks for listening. OK, wait, I need to say something about UFC 199. So, the main card has a lot of exciting and magnetic personalities on it, just like the old Lakers team. Middleweight champion Luke Rockhold is basically a real-life version of James Bond. He's a heavy favorite to defend against fast-talking Brit Michael Bisping, who, despite a long and successful career, is making his first appearance in a UFC title fight.
But what about the torn MCL that Rockhold strangely self-reported to Bisping and the rest of the world on Thursday? Could it be a factor?
And don't forget about the co-main event. Dominick Cruz defends the strap against longtime rival and California favorite Urijah Faber. These two really dislike each other, and this is the rubber match between them.
And these are only two of the five fights on a star-studded main card. Let's analyze and predict winners for each one of these Inglewood scraps. As usual, our own star-studded team is up to the challenge: Craig "Cookie" Amos, Nathan McCarter, Sydnie Jones and myself, Scott Harris. Let's tip it up.
Dustin Poirier vs. Bobby Green
1 of 5
Amos
An awesome, underappreciated scrap to kick off the main card. Bobby Green has quietly posted a 4-1 UFC mark against solid competition, while Dustin Poirier has been a killer since moving up to lightweight. Poirier will pull out the W by pressuring Green and adapting to whatever his opponent throws at him.
Poirier, unanimous decision
McCarter
This is the closest fight on the card. Green could be closer to a title shot if he had been able to stay active, and that inactivity will come back to bite him against Poirier, who has looked outstanding. It'll be close, but Poirier earns a decision by outworking Green in each round.
Poirier, unanimous decision
Jones
Green is tough—he took an Edson Barboza head kick and got right back up. He's durable enough to go all three rounds in this fight, but that doesn't mean he'll win. Poirier has faced stiffer competition, and Green, while dangerous, seems unlikely to stop him.
Poirier, unanimous decision
Harris
Green is mean and aggressive, but it's all based on solid technical skills. Take, for example, his 81 percent takedown defense rate, per UFC data. So there's no easy way out for Poirier on this; he'll have to earn his money Saturday night. But until he proves otherwise, I'd give him the edge to do so against just about any lightweight.
Poirier, unanimous decision
Dan Henderson vs. Hector Lombard
2 of 5
Amos
Hector Lombard's power might not play quite as explosively back at 185 pounds, but he remains plenty capable of scoring the knockout. If Dan Henderson can survive Lombard's initial onslaught, he may be able to score a late stoppage or eke out a decision. However, that's irrelevant, because he won't survive the initial onslaught.
Lombard, TKO, Rd. 1
McCarter
Henderson is shot. Lombard won't be cutting extreme amounts of weight and should be fully prepared to land a huge blitz in the first round.
Lombard, TKO, Rd. 1
Jones
Who is this fight for? Henderson, I guess, maybe out of gratitude and loyalty, because I don't want to see Hendo ethered again. But that's what's going to happen. Lombard may not be leading the pack, but he's dangerous enough to stop the flagging Hendo. And it will happen fast, too.
Lombard, KO, Rd. 1
Harris
Welcome to the buzzkill portion of the UFC 199 main card. This is going to suck. Lombard is waiting to be exposed as a past-his-prime fighter, but that won't happen against someone who has already been exposed as a past-his-prime fighter. Whatever's left of Hendo's chin—combined with Lombard's ticking time bomb of a gas tank—saves the 45-year-old from the knockout, but not from a fresh round of calls for his retirement.
Lombard, unanimous decision
Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas
3 of 5
Amos
Remember when Max Holloway lost to Conor McGregor? That was nine fights ago. He hasn't lost since. Ricardo Lamas remains one of the best featherweights in the world, but Holloway has eclipsed him, and he will show that Saturday night.
Holloway, unanimous decision
McCarter
Holloway is one of the most improved fighters over the past three years, and a victory at UFC 199 should net him a title shot. Lamas has a shot at the upset, but he'll have to do so with a grinding, uneventful style. I can't see that working for three rounds. The Hawaiian puts another one in the win column.
Holloway, unanimous decision
Jones
Lamas is a dangerous fighter, but he relies on his opponent allowing him an opportunity to finish, and Holloway is too smart of a competitor to make that mistake. With Lamas' black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Holloway will probably keep this on the feet, and he has enough power to finish it.
Holloway, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
There may not be a hotter UFC fighter than Holloway at this moment. He's the smart pick here and could easily outpoint Lamas on the feet. But what do I hear in the distance? Are…are those the upset alarms? Let them ring out for Lamas, who will rock Holloway and finish the deal with ground strikes.
Lamas, TKO, Rd. 2
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Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber
4 of 5
Amos
Have you heard? Faber doesn't fight the best. He did fight Cruz, though. And he lost. But not every time. Check the record, bud, it's 1-1. It'll be 2-1 Cruz soon enough, though. His quickness advantage has only grown since the last time the two adversaries squared off.
Cruz, TKO, Rd. 3
McCarter
I recently went back and rewatched their second fight, and it got me excited for the rematch. Their bout at UFC 132 was fantastic and close. Faber did enough to consistently score points, and he even briefly dropped Cruz in the fourth round. But Cruz was able to do just a touch more than Faber. That likely holds up, but I am not counting Faber completely out of this one.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Jones
Faber is the only fighter to ever stop Cruz. Four years later, Cruz took a decision win in their first rematch. Now, almost five years after that rematch, they'll meet again. Faber has repeatedly mocked Cruz for taking fights to decisions, and Sherdog has 62 percent of Cruz's victories coming that way. Since Cruz seems fairly impervious to agitation, it's unlikely Faber will goad him into playing a less-than-cautious game.
If the question becomes "Can Dominick Cruz keep Faber at bay to take a decision win?"—which I think it does—then the answer is yes. Faber is still a great fighter, but he also seems to be slowing down, with almost twice as many fights as Cruz. The Dominator, despite his injuries, still looks fresh.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Harris
Faber's a likable guy and a famous fighter. His career has been great for him and for his sport. He's a good ambassador for MMA and will probably continue to be as long as he wishes to. That's why I'm hoping the 37-year-old doesn't get embarrassed. This isn't 2011, and it sure isn't 2007. Cruz won't get the finish, but he will pick his old rival clean all the same.
Cruz, unanimous decision
Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping
5 of 5
Amos
These two squared off in 2014, and it was a slaughter. Bisping seems to genuinely believe Saturday's outcome will be different, but I'm skeptical that he, or anyone else at 185, can knock Rockhold off the throne.
Rockhold, KO, Rd. 1
McCarter
This is not going to be much different than their first fight. Rockhold will dominate Bisping from beginning to end. Bisping doesn't have any fight-ending offense in his arsenal to truly threaten Rockhold. The champion gets an emphatic victory.
Rockhold, TKO, Rd. 2
Jones
Rockhold beat Bisping once, and I see little reason this fight will go any differently. The champ is a better grappler, younger in his career and has looked like a beast for ages now. His last loss was to Vitor Belfort, who was undergoing testosterone-replacement therapy (TRT) at the time—and that was one of only two losses in Rockhold's professional career. While Bisping is a solid fighter with losses to sincere talent, he still won't have enough to stop Rockhold. Especially not on such short notice.
Rockhold, submission, Rd. 2
Harris
Bisping isn't going to be able to outlast or outmaneuver Rockhold. It's as simple as that. He's a late-model Mustang revving its engine at the Batmobile. Even with Rockhold's knee injury, he will still have plenty to get it done.
Rockhold, unanimous decision
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