Penguins Making the Right Call in Starting Marc-Andre Fleury over Matt Murray

It couldn’t have been easy for Pittsburgh Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan.

Faced with a goaltending choice between the rookie who has helped carry Pittsburgh to the Eastern Conference Final and the veteran who has been the team’s starter for years and only lost the job due to injury, Sullivan opted to make a change. Thus, Marc-Andre Fleury, not Matt Murray, will be in net for Sunday’s Game 5 between Pittsburgh and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

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Sullivan spoke in generalities regarding the decision, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reported.

“It’s an important decision for our hockey team,” Sullivan said. “We’re trying to make the best decisions that we can that we think give our team the best chance to win and that’s the direction that we chose to take for this game.”

The question is whether this is the best possible decision for the Penguins.

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The case for Fleury is easy enough to make—and easier than it would have been just a few years ago. Fleury has been strong in each of the Pens’ last two postseason runs, posting a 0.915 save percentage over two rounds in 2013-14 and playing like the club’s MVP in a first-round loss last year, when he posted a 0.927 save percentage behind a blue line decimated by injury.

More importantly, despite a career save percentage of just 0.912, Fleury has been increasingly strong in the regular season in recent years. He had a 0.921 save percentage as a starter this season and was arguably a top-10 NHL goalie. A year ago, he earned some Hart Trophy consideration, as he posted a league-leading 10 shutouts and 0.920 save percentage over a strong campaign.

Fleury is a quality goaltender and a reliable veteran. He only lost the job because of an injury near the end of the regular season, and there’s no arguing the fact that he looked good when called upon in the third period of Game 4, turning aside all seven shots he faced.

That takes us back to Murray, who took over the starting job when Fleury got hurt and played so well that there has been no opening before now for Sullivan to go back to the veteran.

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Murray’s NHL track record is short and brilliant. He went 9-2-1 over the course of the regular season, recording a 0.930 save percentage over 13 games in Pittsburgh’s net. He has been similarly strong in the playoffs, with a 0.923 save percentage and a 9-4-0 record; he even outdueled Vezina finalist Braden Holtby and the powerhouse Washington Capitals in the second round.

This is firmly in keeping with his AHL history. Murray turned pro in 2014-15 and promptly when 25-10-3 with a staggering 0.941 save percentage for Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. He followed that up this season with a 20-9-1 record and 0.931 save percentage.

Murray’s problem is that his performance has slipped as the playoffs have gone on. If we split his postseason track record in half, we find a discomforting trendline:

• First seven games: 6-1-0 record, 0.944 save percentage
• Last six games: 3-3-0 record, 0.892 save percentage

In six of his first seven games, Murray posted a save percentage of 0.925 or better. In his last six games, the only time he managed that was in Game 3 against Tampa Bay, where he stopped 26 of 28 shots (0.929).

It’s dangerous to slice the data like this; we’re talking about short spans of time. Give Murray even one more save over these last six games, and his save percentage jumps by six points.

There may have been another consideration, too. There was a frightening moment in Game 4 when teammate Brian Dumoulin collided with Murray behind the Penguins net, making contact with the goaltender’s head:

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beware of own teammates pic.twitter.com/GbKm8W4Mwh

— Stephanie (@myregularface) May 21, 2016"

Murray was able to keep playing, but it’s possible he did so at less than 100 percent health. That doesn’t necessarily even mean a concussion; it’s easy to imagine him having just a sore neck. That information isn’t available to media, but it is something that may have informed Sullivan’s decision.

This comes down to a judgement call, and there is arguably no wrong answer. Murray and Fleury are both good goaltenders, and whether Fleury plays well or poorly in Game 5, there is no way to know how Murray might have played had he started.

Overall, though, Sullivan made the right decision here. Fleury is a strong, rested goaltender, and he’s now had an opportunity to shake off the rust. Murray’s play has slipped, albeit over a short span, and he may be injured. All else being equal, it is debatable which of these two goalies would give Pittsburgh a better shot at winning, but all else isn’t equal, and the circumstances favor Fleury.

Statistics courtesy of Hockey-Reference and the AHL. 

Jonathan Willis covers the NHL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter for more of his work.