Trail Blazers' Ceiling Is High Despite Series Loss to Warriors

OAKLAND, Calif. — Wednesday night's 125-121 conference semifinal loss to the Golden State Warriors marked an end for the Portland Trail Blazers.

But this young team, having just completed a playoff run years ahead of schedule, should think of it more like a beginning. A good beginning—one absolutely nobody foresaw and one the young roster can use to propel itself forward in the future.

But first: the past.

Modest projections abounded before the season, ranging between 18 and 34 wins but never including the word "playoffs" unless directly preceded by some variation of the qualifier "Portland has no chance to make the." I had them slotted 25th in the preseason edition of Bleacher Report's power rankings.

It's easy, even now, to defend the dearth of optimism.

The Blazers lost four of their five starters over the summer. LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum were gone—replaced by inexpensive youth. The trade that sent Batum to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for the teenaged Noah Vonleh was the clearest signal short-term success was low on the priority list.

Damian Lillard was still around, primed for a big year as the only proven scoring threat on the roster. C.J. McCollum's ascent was somewhat foreseeable, given his outburst in the 2015 postseason. And sure, you could have envisioned Meyers Leonard, Mason Plumlee and a handful of other young talents taking steps forward.

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But that was how you talked yourself into the high end of those preseason projections. That was the way to 34 wins. Not 44, not a playoff series victory and certainly not a spirited showing against what might go down as the greatest team in NBA history.

And it's easy to forget now, but after an 0-5 road trip in December dropped Portland's record to 11-20, flat-out tanking seemed like the easiest, most logical path.

The Blazers refused to submit, and instead surged down another one.

"We kept competing," Blazers head coach Terry Stotts said. "When we were nine games below .500, we kept competing...it’s what we do. Every team wants an identity. If our identity is we compete every night, that’s a great place to start."

Allen Crabbe evolved into a splendid bench gunner. Al-Farouq Aminu developed his three-point shot and hit 36.1 percent from deep, morphing into the kind of three-and-D wing everyone covets. Gerald Henderson, a throw-in from the Batum deal, added toughness. Plumlee and Moe Harkless got better. McCollum made a bigger leap than anyone expected, becoming a borderline star and winning the Most Improved Player award.

McCollum hung 27 on the Warriors in Game 5, carrying his team in the fourth quarter when Lillard was clearly gassed.

The Blazers' earlier climb toward the postseason felt fragile. Their defensive rating, No. 10 in the league in 2014-15, fell to 21st. They lacked talent or experience (or both) at too many positions. They depended too heavily on Lillard and McCollum to generate offense, and neither did much on the other end.

The wins shouldn't have been piling up.

But they did, mainly because the most important person in the organization never bought the rebuilding talk in the first place. As much as everyone who took part in the effort deserves credit—Aminu grew, McCollum blossomed, Stotts schemed and strategized his heart out—Lillard was the wellspring of Portland's success.

"Whatever the narrative was this offseason about our expectations and our projected win totals, and about what we lost, Damian never set a tone that this was a rebuilding year," general manager Neil Olshey told Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN.com.

And maybe that feels counterintuitive considering the totally applicable "whole is more than the sum of its parts" narrative we've attached to this team. But without a leader capable of galvanizing a group, of stretching it up to and beyond the limits of its potential, it's hard to imagine any of this remarkable season ever happening.

"Regardless of what other people expected, I think what we were able to do is reassure ourselves that the foundation we built this year is the right one," Lillard said.

Lillard scored 28 points in Wednesday's elimination, solidifying his status as the league's best Stephen Curry impersonator—even if he'd take that comparison as a slight.

Throughout this series, the previous one and the regular season, Lillard buoyed his team with shot-making, relentless confidence and consistent effort. He'll remain central to a growth process that won't suffer from lack of continuity. Of the Blazers' rotation players, only Henderson will be an unrestricted free agent.

Luring marquee talent has never been a Blazers strength, but with the young roster's suddenly obvious potential and Lillard cementing himself as a big-stage leader, that could change.

"There’s not a selfish guy in our group," Lillard said. "Our culture that we’ve established this season is something guys will want to be a part of."

Potential free agents have seen plenty to like this year, per Jason Quick of CSNNW.com:

Portland led Golden State at halftime during each of the final four games of this series. That should be a point of pride, even if Curry missed most of the games, and even if the Dubs' patented six-minute spurts ended the proceedings in five contests.

"That’s a terrific basketball team," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said. "It’s not often you play against a team in the playoffs and admire them at the same time."

The Blazers were relentless, holding off runs, playing with maximum effort and sticking around far longer than they should have, per Eric Freeman of Yahoo Sports:

Many teams in the West have bright futures. There are title contenders and playoff mainstays aplenty. The lottery up-and-comers are promising, too. The Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz and even Sacramento Kings could all contend for postseason positions next season.

But Portland has already been there.

With Lillard in charge, McCollum rising and confidence born of an ahead-of-schedule arrival, we haven't heard the last of this Blazers team.

Follow @gt_hughes on Twitter.

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise indicated.