2016 NBA Draft Prospects: Breaking Down NBA Future of Michigan's Caris LeVert

Caris LeVert's draft stock could fluctuate more than any other player at the NBA Draft Combine, and he's not likely to even touch a basketball.

LeVert, was once thought of as an NBA mid-first-rounder, had surgery on his left foot on March 22—his third foot surgery in the last 22 months. The combine will provide NBA teams the chance to examine his foot and determine the risk in drafting him.

Age	21 (Aug. 25, 1994)
Team	Michigan
Height	6'7"
Weight	205

"Teams are still interested, they're just looking to meet me at the combine," LeVert told reporters on April 13 at the Michigan Wolverines' end-of-year banquet. "Everyone's really anxious to see. Team doctors are anxious to get their hands on me."

An NBA scout told Bleacher Report: "It is a concern. I think if a team red-flags him, he's screwed at the end of the day. That's what all teams are waiting to see."

There's a lot to like about a healthy LeVert. At 6'7", he's a skilled wing who can create off the bounce with a smooth jumper, and he's still only 21 after spending four years at Michigan.

Relevant stats

	Games	PPG	APG	RPG	SPG	FG%	3P%	Off. rating
2015-16	15	16.5	4.9	5.3	1.0	50.6	44.6	126.8
2014-15	18	14.9	3.7	4.9	1.8	42.1	40.5	101.1
2013-14	37	12.9	2.9	4.3	1.2	43.9	40.8	111.7
2012-13	33	2.3	0.8	1.1	0.2	31.5	30.2	93.4

LeVert's numbers are solid across the board and show he improved throughout his career, but the biggest concern is the fact that he played only 33 games the last two years.

His shooting numbers did dip his junior season when he inherited the role of go-to scorer for the first time, but he looked to be more comfortable in that role as a senior.

Strengths

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Head coach John Beilein gives his guards a lot of responsibility in his two-guard offense, so it was the perfect setting for LeVert to display his skill level and grow as a player. 

He also benefited from pairing with former Michigan point guard Trey Burke as a freshman. The two played one-on-one almost every day, and Burke deserves an assist for helping LeVert evolve into one of the best off-the-dribble scorers to come through Michigan. 

That experience gives LeVert a leg up on most prospects. He's comfortable in isolation situations and worked off ball screens a lot in Beilein's offense. He scored from all three levels, and his size is helpful in the mid-range, especially against smaller defenders. 

The Wolverines shoot a lot of threes, and LeVert is a knockdown shooter in spot-up situations who's also fluid from long range off the dribble. 

LeVert's biggest improvement throughout his career was his passing and creating for others. Per KenPom.com, he had an assist rate of 32.9 percent as a senior, which is a good number for a pass-first point guard and rarely seen from a shooting guard. 

Weaknesses

Tony Ding/Associated Press

The biggest red flag is obviously that left foot. The nagging problems started his sophomore year and have been ongoing since. But calling him injury-prone might be unfair.

LeVert himself told me before his junior season that was the first injury he had ever dealt with.

The question becomes: Will the foot ever be the same?

"So there's two things here," a scout said. "Can he stay healthy? And, once he gets healthy, what kind of player is he? Does he have the ability to get to the rim? Does he have the ability to stay in front of his man? That's the risk involved. It's really unfortunate to the kid."

When LeVert has been right, he's a solid defender who benefits from a 7'1" wingspan. He does struggle against stronger players, and while he's gotten bigger over the years—he weighed 155 pounds as a senior in high school and was listed at 205 this past year—he still has a slight frame. 

On the offensive end, LeVert has been inefficient in the mid-range and tends to settle for tough shots too often. He started this trend when he became the man at Michigan his junior season, but he would likely do less of that at the NBA level, where he projects as more of a role player.

	%shots at rim	FG% at rim	%shots 2-pt jumpers	FG% 2-pt jumpers
2015-16	32.7	77.4	27.2	27.3
2014-15	16.7	75.7	47.5	31.4
2013-14	20.5	75.0	39.9	31.1

NBA player comparison

LeVert reminds me of a skinnier version of Joe Johnson, who has always been a good scorer off the bounce and one of the better passing wings in the league. 

Johnson went 10th in the 2001 NBA draft. LeVert isn't likely to go anywhere close to that, and I'm not sure anyone imagines he has the ceiling of Johnson in his prime. But if these foot problems had never happened, it's not unrealistic to think LeVert could have been a late lottery pick. 

At the current time, most mock drafts have him going in the second round. Some scouts seem to be scared by the injuries or weren't overly impressed when he was healthy, while others see a potential great value in the second round. 

Best-case scenario

Noah Graham/Getty Images

It's not easy to find 6'7" shooting guards who can handle the ball, pass and shoot. That combination could give LeVert a chance to become a starter down the road. 

If he's healthy, he would be a valuable bench piece because of his shooting and the fact that he has the skill set to play point guard in a pinch. 

"I like Caris," the first scout said. "To me, he's a value guy who a lot of teams are sleeping on. I look at some of his games earlier this year, look at his numbers, look at his size, why can't he do what Allen Crabbe is doing right now? Plus? He's a better ball-handler. Probably a better athlete or similar. I certainly think Caris LeVert can do what Allen Crabbe is doing right now."

If Crabbe is the baseline for a healthy LeVert, most teams would take that, particularly in a second-round pick. Crabbe averaged 10.3 points per game and shot 39.3 percent from deep this past season coming off the bench for the Portland Trail Blazers.

Worst-case scenario

The worst-case scenario is that whatever is going on with LeVert's foot is something that is never going away. He said he's going to reveal what the injury is at the combine. It was a bit of a mystery for much of his senior season.

LeVert played the first 14 games of the year and then missed 11 straight before playing 11 scoreless minutes on Feb. 13 against the Purdue Boilermakers. That was the final action of his college career.

Prediction

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

If LeVert's foot wasn't going to check out, the smart play would have been to decline the combine invite. It seems like he and Michigan were more cautious this time around, and I think eventually he's going to recover. 

So what is a healthy LeVert? 

While it's conceivable he could one day become a starter, I see him as a bench player who could be a solid contributor on the right team.

I also don't think it's unrealistic that he goes in the first round. This is a weak draft, and taking a flier on a 6'7" wing with a 7'1" wingspan and his skill set late in the first round sounds logical. It took Crabbe until his third season to become a real contributor.

That kind of timeline for LeVert seems realistic based on his age and the rehabilitation he has in front of him. 

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @CJMooreBR.