Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Top Picks, Updated Vegas Lines for 142nd Race
The Kentucky Derby has been no place for Cinderella stories in recent years, and that will not change in 2016 with Nyquist leading the way.
The undefeated horse drew the No. 13 gate during Wednesday’s broadcast of the post positions and will now look to join Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah in the Churchill Downs victory books. According to Mike Dempsey of Odds Shark, Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah were the favorites at the last three Kentucky Derbys, respectively, and took home the titles.
With that historical precedent as a backdrop, here is a look at the post positions and morning-line odds for the 2016 Kentucky Derby, per NBC Sports Network:
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| 1 | Trojan Nation | 50-1 |
| 2 | Suddenbreakingnews | 20-1 |
| 3 | Creator | 10-1 |
| 4 | Mo Tom | 20-1 |
| 5 | Gun Runner | 10-1 |
| 6 | My Man Sam | 20-1 |
| 7 | Oscar Nominated | 50-1 |
| 8 | Lani | 30-1 |
| 9 | Destin | 15-1 |
| 10 | Whitmore | 20-1 |
| 11 | Exaggerator | 8-1 |
| 12 | Tom's Ready | 30-1 |
| 13 | Nyquist | 3-1 |
| 14 | Mohaymen | 10-1 |
| 15 | Outwork | 15-1 |
| 16 | Shagaf | 20-1 |
| 17 | Mor Spirit | 12-1 |
| 18 | Majesto | 30-1 |
| 19 | Brody's Cause | 12-1 |
| 20 | Danzing Candy | 15-1 |
Predictions
Mor Spirit Will Challenge History
Going solely on history, Mor Spirit was the biggest loser during Wednesday’s post drawings.
According to Melissa Hoppert of the New York Times, no horse has ever taken home the Kentucky Derby title from the No. 17 gate, which is exactly where Mor Spirit will start on Saturday. While he will not win at Churchill Downs, he will make a charge at history before ultimately falling short against Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mohaymen.
Mor Spirit’s KentuckyDerby.com profile said he has three first-place finishes and four second-place finishes on his resume. He finished in second place at the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes and will look to parlay those showings into a solid race on Saturday.
It is not just a solid track record on Mor Spirit’s side. Jockey Gary Stevens counts more than 5,100 victories in his career, including three wins at every Triple Crown event, per KentuckyDerby.com. He understands what it takes to get the best out of a horse on a big stage, and that is what he will do on Saturday.
What’s more, Bob Baffert is Mor Spirit’s trainer. Baffert has four Kentucky Derby crowns to his name, including last year’s with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Baffert and Stevens are a strong combination, which will help Mor Spirit overcome the unfortunate post drawing.
At least Mor Spirit doesn’t have to work from the inside two gates. According to Vance Hanson of Brisnet.com, via KentuckyDerby.com, only one horse has won from Post 1 since 1964, while zero horses have won from Post 2 since 1978.
A horse has to jump out to a quick start from those two gates or risk getting trapped against the inside rail as the rest of the field battles for position. Mor Spirit and Stevens will be in a spot that allows them to settle in behind the pace and wait for a late charge.
It just won’t be enough to overtake Nyquist, Exaggerator or Mohaymen.
Nyquist Will be Too Much for the Rest of the Field
All Nyquist has done in his career is win, and that isn’t going to change at the Kentucky Derby. The 7-0 racehorse has already beaten Exaggerator three times and blew past the previously undefeated Mohaymen at the Florida Derby.
Mohaymen was pushed too far wide at the Florida Derby and fell behind on the way to a fourth-place finish. Considering he is one space wider than Nyquist for the start of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, don’t be surprised if that situation unfolds again.
One of Nyquist’s best strengths is his overall tactical speed, which helps him remain within striking distance until the closing stretch of a race and then push past the rest of the field. That versatility will help him on Saturday as jockey Mario Gutierrez picks the perfect time to make a late charge for the victory.
Much like Mor Spirit has Baffert and Stevens, Nyquist has a solid team behind him with Gutierrez, trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam. That combination won the 2012 Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another and will try to rise to the occasion again under horse racing’s biggest spotlight.
In addition to the Florida Derby, Nyquist took home the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two-year-old champion in a statement win. That victory is notable because he started from the No. 13 post, which is also where he will begin on Saturday. The rail won’t be a concern from that far outside, but he is not too far out that he has to jump off to a quick lead to avoid being pushed behind on the turns.
Dan Wolken of USA Today wrote the position "thrilled trainer Doug O’Neill because it will allow jockey Mario Gutierrez to use the horse’s tactical speed and place him anywhere he wants in the race."
O’Neill also seemed pleased with the drawing, per the Associated Press, via ESPN.com: “The post draw didn't matter to us a ton, but we're happy being more toward the outside for sure. The whole team is pumped up. We're just very optimistic for a big day.”
It will be a big day with the undefeated horse starting from a favorable spot. Exaggerator, Mohaymen and Mor Spirit will all challenge, but it won’t be enough against the dominant Nyquist.
Predicted Top Four: 1. Nyquist 2. Exaggerator 3. Mohaymen 4. Mor Spirit
