Kentucky Derby 2016 Odds: Latest Lines for Top Contenders and Dark Horses

The Kentucky Derby is almost upon us, and we're now just a week away from race day.

This year's version comes fresh off the heels of a Triple Crown effort from last year's Derby winner American Pharoah, and while none of these horses look like they will repeat the feat, a few have legitimate designs on winning this year's Run for the Roses.

As it stands, Nyquist is the odds-on favorite to win the Derby, with Exaggerator and Mohaymen trailing as the second and third betting options, respectively.

In this piece, we'll examine those top-two choices, as well as two under-the-radar options that could give bettors a good price if they're dying to beat the favorites.

Before we get into our analysis of these intriguing betting options, let's take a quick look at the current odds from the top-15 selections in this year's Kentucky Derby.

Current Odds

Horse	Trainer	Odds
Nyquist	Doug O'Neill	+333
Exaggerator	J. Keith Desormeaux	+800
Mohaymen	Kiaran McLaughlin	+800
Gun Runner	Steven Asmussen	+1000
Brody's Cause	Dale Romans	+1200
Destin	Todd Pletcher	+1400
Mo Tom	Thomas Amoss	+1600
Suddenbreakingnews	Donnie Von Hemel	+1600
Mor Spirit	Bob Baffert	+1800
Outwork	Todd Pletcher	+2000
Creator	Steven Asmussen	+2000
Danzing Candy	Clifford Sise Jr.	+2500
Shagaf	Chad Brown	+2500
My Man Sam	Chad Brown	+2500
Swipe	J. Keith Desormeaux	+3300

Top Contenders 

Nyquist

Though this year's crop of three-year-olds is rather underwhelming, Nyquist is easily the best in the field. The son of Uncle Mo has graded-stakes winning pedigree and has flashed it on several occasions in the buildup to the Run for the Roses.

The son of a Grade-1 winning sire, Nyquist has won each of his seven starts, with all but one being of the graded-stakes variety. Most recently, the Doug O'Neill-trained monster won in a romp over his competition in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Nyquist, under a steady ride from jockey Mario Gutierrez, led the field through quarters in 23.60, 23.49, 24.30 and 24.99 seconds, with the final eighth of a mile coming in 12.73 seconds.

All told, Nyquist was outstanding that day and withstood a run from second-choice Mohaymen. When Mohaymen made his move, Nyquist and his rider held firm and buried him and the rest of the field by 3 1/4 lengths as he barreled over the finish line.

Most recently, Nyquist went through his final workout at Keeneland.

According to Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form, Nyquist's outing went well. The champion colt looks primed to run big at Churchill Downs next week, and his trainer O'Neill raved about Nyquist's form:

Look for him to win big in the Derby.

Exaggerator

Exaggerator presents an interesting alternative to those looking to beat the favorite in this year's Derby.

Trained and ridden by the Desormeaux brothers—J. Keith and Kent, respectively—Exaggerator's marquee showing came in his most recent race, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. In said race, the three-year-old son of Curlin flashed his elite closing ability on a sloppy track.

Exaggerator broke sixth in an eight-horse field and rode along in the seventh- and sixth-place spots through the first three quarters of the race. Coming out of the third quarter, Exaggerator made a huge move along the outside of the leading group of Danzing Candy and Uncle Lino.

In the words of race-caller Michael Wrona, Exaggerator went "straight past them like they were tied to the rail" and waltzed away to a 6 1/4-length victory.

Exaggerator is going to need a lot of help to win this year's Derby. The Curlin colt is a tried-and-true closer and will need the perfect trip—and maybe even a sloppy track—to win this race. However, don't count him out, especially at plus-800.

Underdogs

Danzing Candy

Danzing Candy flopped his last time out with a fourth-place effort in the Santa Anita Derby. The Twirling Candy colt had won in each of his prior three starts, including a first-place effort over Exaggerator and Mor Spirit in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes.

In that race, the Clifford Sise Jr.-trained colt led nearly every second and logged quarter-mile fractions of 22.96, 23.15, 24.93 and 25.34 seconds, respectively, before capping things off with a final sixteenth in 6.66 seconds. 

Exaggerator trailed the Twirling Candy colt by a head at the 3/4-mile mark, but Danzing Candy, under a hard drive from Mike Smith, held him off and eventually pulled away to a two-length win.

Danzing Candy likes to get out in front of the pack and control the pace. That will be difficult for him to do in the Derby with Nyquist and probably Mohaymen breathing down his neck.

If he has his way with the pace, Danzing Candy is completely capable of holding a lead through the finish line. If he does, it'll come with a nice payday for his backers who, as it stands, would get plus-2500 for their efforts.

Shagaf

Shagaf was impressive in his first three efforts, logging victories in a maiden special weight and an optional claimer, prior to a third consecutive winning effort in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes.

The Chad Brown-trained colt looked outstanding in the Gotham. Shagaf jumped out to an early lead but was steadied by rider Irad Ortiz Jr. and ran along in the middle of the pack, trailing under fractions of 23.33, 23.83, 24.53 and 27.11.

Ortiz, who practically owns the New York racing circuit, navigated the Aqueduct dirt track before making a bid along the rail just shy of the 3/4 mile marker.

From there, it was all gravy for the Bernardini colt as he bounced out into the three hole under a steady drive from his rider, Ortiz. Shagaf saved his best run of the day for the final sixteenth, where he was able to overtake Laoban and win by 1 1/4 lengths.

Shagaf's next effort came in the Wood Memorial where he bounced...hard. 

The son of a multi-time Grade 1 winner, Shagaf went out in the Wood and didn't lift a hoof. He'll need a strong effort in the Derby to win, but he's shown the requisite ability to sit off the pace and close hard in the stretch run.

Backers of Shagaf will be treated to a sizable payday, as he currently sits at a gaudy plus-2500 to win next Saturday's Derby.

All odds courtesy of OddsShark.com.