NASCAR at Charlotte 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Coca-Cola 600
Now that the fiasco that was the All-Star Race is behind us, we now return to your regularly scheduled racing, the longest race on the calendar: the Coca-Cola 600, aka the Coke 600.
No, that’s not the nutrition facts, that’s the mileage, 400 laps, a test of endurance and certainly pit strategy.
Carl Edwards won his first race for Joe Gibbs Racing a year ago at this time using a killer fuel gamble that ultimately put the No. 19 car in Victory Lane, lifting the chimpanzee off his back-flipping shoulders.
"It's so cool to get this win—we've had such bad luck," said Edward in Reid Spencer’s NASCAR.com story from a year ago. "And we were the slowest of the [JGR cars] tonight, but we had [crew chief] Darian [Grubb] on the box. He made the right call, he put us in a position to win, and it worked. This is truly a gift. I took advantage of it to win, and we'll get better."
That much is true.
Can Edwards repeat? Can some unsung drivers break through? And can one veteran who nearly won the race a year ago get back to winning form?
All that, and more, in this week’s carbonated preview and prediction of the Coke 600.
By the Numbers: Charlotte Motor Speedway
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The Coca-Cola 600
Place: Charlotte Motor Speedway; Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Sunday, May 29
TV Coverage: 6:15 p.m. (ET), Fox
Distance: 600 miles, 400 laps
Defending champion: Carl Edwards
Current Driver Standings
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1. Kevin Harvick, 418 points
2. Kyle Busch, 397
3. Kurt Busch, 386
4. Carl Edwards, 381
5. Jimmie Johnson, 370
6. Brad Keselowski, 368
7. Chase Elliott, 341
8. Joey Logano, 340
9. Martin Truex Jr., 336
10. Austin Dillon, 315
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 314
12. Matt Kenseth, 313
13. Denny Hamlin, 308
14. Jamie McMurray, 296
15. Ryan Blaney, 288
16. A.J. Allmendinger, 283
The Nearly Punctual Chase-Bubble Watch
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The Two Above the Line
Ryan Blaney
It’s no news here, my friends, Blaney is here to stay…sort of.
This is where Blaney hovers, right around the cut line. He has moments of brilliance (the past few weeks) and moments that are evidence of rookie-ness.
After a strong effort in the Showdown (despite jumping the gun on the restart) and an average finish of 7.33 his last three starts, he looks poised to stay right around this place in the standings.
A.J. Allmendinger
And Allmendinger, where will he go? Where will he end up?
The Dinger is see-sawing in 2016.
After finishing second at Martinsville, he followed that by taking 22nd at Texas. After placing 24th at Richmond and 14th at Talladega, he took eighth at Kansas.
Allmendinger may be the best of the rest when it comes to the quirky track. He can’t compete, for the most part, on the intermediate tracks the big teams dominate, but short tracks, plate tracks and certainly the road courses are Allmendinger’s tickets over the next 14 races to a possible Chase berth.
The Two Below the Line
Ryan Newman
Hard to believe that Ryan Newman has three top 10s on the year. It’s his average finish of 20 in the other nine races that keeps him right around the cut line.
He hasn’t won since 2013, so how are we to believe he can put it together and get to Victory Lane?
Maybe what the No. 31 team has figured out is that, no, they can’t reach Victory Lane on pure horse power, but maybe by racing smart, logging laps and letting the more aggressive drivers maul each other like big-horn sheep, we can log the points needed to reach the playoffs.
Worked before.
Trevor Bayne
Trevor Bayne is here to fulfill Ra’s Al Ghul’s destiny!*
Bayne and Co. managed to endure and finish seventh in the Sprint All-Star Race, an amazing feat given the strange nature of the race.
More importantly, winning a segment of the Showdown and logging that top 10 gives this team a smattering of momentum heading into the Coke 600.
Expect a solid day from this team.
*: The more relevant Bayne remains, the more Bane quotes will enter. Consider this a warning.
Biggest Movers
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Biggest Climb
Chase Elliott, Up Four
Elliott’s career-best third-place finish at Dover two weekends ago capped an end to a thrilling race.
It saw Kenseth hold off a charging Kyle Larson and Elliott. Elliott fell off, but for a time. it looked like he could get into the exacta.
He said in Lee Spencer’s Motorsports.com story:
"It was just a matter of getting some clean laps and not having to fend off the 42 I think was the big thing. When somebody's on your bumper like that, it's hard to put a real good lap together. When you're racing around people, it just slows everybody down. When the 42 got into the 20, I was able to catch them, got a run on Kyle. Looking back, wish I had done some different things to open up some clear lanes and run different lines.
"
The way he and Larson battled at Dover and the way they battled in the Showdown could make for a new and unexpected rivalry in the coming years.
Biggest Fall
Aric Almirola, Down Three
Aric Almirola fell three spots to No. 20 in the standings after that Jimmie Johnson-induced wreck at Dover.
Almirola busted up his finger in the crash but will make up the work at Charlotte, a track where he has one top 10.
If nothing else, he seems like a total boss when it comes to saving money.
Biggest Storylines
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Let’s Talk About that All-Star Race Again
As weird and confusing as the All-Star Race was, it was undoubtedly interesting. The Showdowns made for incredible TV as did the All-Star Race as everyone tried to figure out—on the fly—what the cuss was going on.
FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen offers an interesting tweak to the race that he says won’t cost anyone else an extra penny but will add levity to the midseason exhibition. He writes:
"Guarantee the winner of the All-Star race a spot in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
In terms of the Chase, winning means nothing right now. Kasey Kahne won the All-Star race and missed the Chase in 2008, as did Jamie McMurray in 2014.
Let's fix that problem. The All-Star certainly is one of NASCAR's top five or six events behind only the Daytona 500, Brickyard 400 and maybe Darlington or the Coca-Cola 600.
"
Why not? With quirky tracks like Sonoma and Watkins-Glen, Bristol and Richmond, even Daytona and Talladega, why not let the winner of whatever form the All-Star Race takes also make the Chase?
In all likelihood, the winner will be someone we’re used to. And doesn’t that add a little more salsa to the Showdown, that these drivers get a ticket into a smaller field for a chance at the Chase?
Why not?
Carl Edwards Goes for Two in a Row
Edwards probably makes most people’s list of top four drivers to win the Sprint Cup in 2016.
He has two wins already and showed he’s not afraid to move a teammate out of the way to reach Victory Lane. Add to that he’s on the strongest team in all of NASCAR.
A year ago, he won because of fuel strategy.
This year, he may win because he’s the best.
Dark-Horse Pick: Greg Biffle
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The year, 2015.
Greg Biffle wins a segment of the Showdown and the following week goes on to finish second in the Coke 600, this in a year where his average finish was 20th. He too had a similar fuel window as Edwards, his former teammate, and it nearly paid of for Biffle.
Biffle said in Reid Spencer’s NASCAR.com story:
"So excited to see the checkered flag. I wasn't sure I was going to stretch two laps of gas out of it. But it was probably on the straightaway it sucked some air and started flashing the fuel pressure. I was able to run it around the corners and didn't have any more issues, but stayed in front of the 88, finished second, big boost for the team, but probably a bigger boost for the team was how we ran tonight on the race track.
"
Now it’s 2016. Biffle won a Showdown segment.
He was one spot away from the win in 2015.
He’s your dark horse.
And the Winner Is...Joey Logano
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Winning the All-Star Race lit a fire under Logano. That win, though it doesn’t count, awakened something in him.
"What a crazy battle for a million dollars at the end,” said Logano in Reid Spencer’s NASCAR.com story. “This is the All-Star Race. It's special just to be in the race. Forget winning it—it’s just special. It's neat to be in Victory Lane."
Logano has the speed and the car, and maybe with this little bump in mojo after his first unofficial trip to Victory Lane of 2016, it will free him up to drive a winning race.
Plus, nobody burns out better at Charlotte than Logano. What was that? Four spins across the apron?
He’ll do it again Sunday night.
