Ferrari Quick in Practice, but Mercedes Are Still the Chinese GP Favourites

Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel set the two fastest laps during the second free practice session for the Formula One Chinese Grand Prix.

Raikkonen's lap of one minute, 36.896 seconds was 0.109 seconds quicker than Vettel's best effort and—more importantly—0.237 seconds ahead of Nico Rosberg in the top Mercedes car.

Ferrari's quick laps around the Shanghai International Circuit led Sky Sports commentator David Croft to question during the broadcast whether Mercedes' streak of four straight poles in China was under threat.

But wasn't it just two weeks ago in Bahrain that we got excited by Ferrari's pace in FP3, when Vettel was nearly half-a-second quicker than Rosberg and his team-mate, Lewis Hamilton? And what happened as soon as qualifying began and the lap times actually counted?

Mercedes flipped a switch (or pressed a button) and suddenly Hamilton and Rosberg were a half-second ahead of the Ferraris.

Asked in the FIA press conference why the Mercs were suddenly so quick, Vettel responded, "I don’t know, you should ask them!"

Clearly, Mercedes have not been pushing their cars to the limit during free practice, confident in their pace when they need it. The team employed a similar strategy throughout winter testing, focusing on reliability rather than outright speed.

After Friday's running in Shanghai, Raikkonen acknowledged Ferrari's strength on the super-soft tyres (the softest compound available), but said, per ESPN F1's Nate Saunders, "For whatever reason we've been quite struggling apart from the super-soft tyre. Our car is nice but it's just the other tyres are very difficult to get any grip from."

That was the polite version of his radio message while on the soft tyres, which was played on the broadcast, where he asked the team, "Do you really want that I keep going, because it's just absolute [censored]?"

While everyone will qualify on the super-soft tyres, Ferrari's struggles on the soft and medium compounds are not a great sign for those hoping to see the Scuderia challenge Mercedes in the race on Sunday.

There are a couple other factors that should boost the Italian team's confidence, though—or at least give them some hope. First, the BBC weather forecast is calling for rain in Shanghai throughout the day on Saturday.

Poor weather during the qualifying session would not necessarily give Ferrari an advantage, but there would be a greater likelihood of driver errors producing some surprises on the grid. A wet track would also minimise the advantage Mercedes enjoy from their superior engine, as all the cars would be struggling for grip.

Still, Raikkonen was not overly excited (is he ever?) by the prospect of rain. "If it rains in qualifying and practice it changes the game a little bit but I don't think the end result will be affected an awful lot," he said in the Thursday press conference. "It will be more exciting, more difficult, we will see how it pans out."

The other positive news for Ferrari is the five-place grid penalty Hamilton will incur for changing his gearbox. The defending champion has won the last two races in China and qualified on pole for the last three.

The Shanghai circuit's two long straights offer plenty of overtaking opportunities, particularly with the DRS. But Hamilton will start no higher than sixth, and if his recent run of poor starts continues, it could leave him even further back after the first turn.

"It’s going to be an easy weekend for Nico for sure," Hamilton told the official F1 website. "But it doesn't mean I can't give him a good run for his money from wherever I start. I'll be pushing as hard as I can... It doesn't mean I can't win the race still, which is my thought process, rather than damage limitation."

Rosberg, meanwhile, has now won five races in a row and will present a formidable challenge to the Ferraris, whether Hamilton can catch them or not.

Ferrari may be closing the gap to Mercedes (or maybe not), but do not read too much into the Friday practice times. If Raikkonen and Vettel are still ahead on Saturday afternoon, then we can start talking about Ferrari taking their first victory of the 2016 season.

Until then, the Silver Arrows are still the clear favourites.

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