UFC 196: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 196 hits Las Vegas on Saturday, and the Bleacher Report staff is here to provide you with predictions for how we think each main card tilt will go.
And, yes, there is some dissension in the ranks.
In the main event, Nate Diaz battles UFC featherweight champion Conor McGregor in a welterweight bout. Diaz replaces lightweight titleholder Rafael dos Anjos following an injury to the Brazilian, and the press events since then have been nothing short of spectacular.
There is still a title fight on the card, however, as Holly Holm defends her crown against Miesha Tate in the co-main event.
Three other strong supporting fights help fill out the UFC 196 card. Who will win? Which B/R staff member will come out on top?
There is only one way to find out. Read on for detailed musings on all five main card contests.
2016 Standings
1 of 6
After just two months, the 2015 victor (of a truncated season), Steven Rondina, is fighting to stay out of the cellar. Karma for his gloating no doubt.
Sydnie Jones is in the lead.
March features several UFC cards with hard-to-pick fights, and it should put the 2016 campaign into perspective as it will complete 25 percent of the work to be done. Will Jones be able to maintain the lead and put pressure on the good ol' boys of Bleacher Report?
UFC 196 will help to answer that question. This is where we stand heading into March:
2016 Standings
- Sydnie Jones (20-9)
- Craig Amos (18-11)
- Nathan McCarter (18-11)
- Steven Rondina (17-12)
- Scott Harris (16-13)
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko
2 of 6
Craig Amos
This matchup hasn't received a ton of attention, but it's a good one. Nunes is brutal with her ground striking and will try to put Shevchenko on her back, but Shevchenko showed a terrifically rounded skill set opposite Sarah Kaufman in her promotional debut. She is very much a live underdog. The forecast here is Round 1 to Nunes and the rest of the fight to Shevchenko.
Shevchenko, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Shevchenko managed to beat Kaufman on her athleticism alone, but she won't be able to do that with Nunes. The Brazilian will either muscle Shevchenko to the ground early and finish her with strikes or curry enough favor with the judges in the first two rounds to take the decision.
Nunes, TKO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Shevchenko has an impressive resume, but many of her victories are over fighters with records of 0-1. Certainly, she's talented, and going all three rounds with Kaufman is promising. But Nunes is either a finisher or a loser, and she's finished much stiffer competition than Shevchenko has faced.
It's likely we haven't seen Shevchenko's full potential, but we also haven't seen her in front of someone as aggressive or as vicious as Nunes.
Nunes, TKO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
Shevchenko is solid from the perimeter, but Nunes is better everywhere. Here's guessing her aggression makes a difference early.
Nunes, TKO, Rd. 1
Nathan McCarter
I love this matchup, but it may be just a touch too early for Shevchenko. If this turns into a striking bout and Nunes can't close the distance, Shevchenko has a real chance at a big upset. But I don't think that happens.
Nunes' aggression and pressure are the ultimate difference-makers. She'll get the finish, but only after wearing Shevchenko down in the first round.
Nunes, TKO, Rd. 2
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
3 of 6
Craig Amos
After rebounding with two impressive wins, it's time we give Anderson a mulligan for that Gian Villante mishap. The Ultimate Fighter winner will notch another victory Saturday, which should be enough to earn him a top-10 opponent next time out.
Anderson, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Anderson has been winning in impressively unimpressive fashion to this point in his UFC career, and he should be able to continue that success here. I'm expecting him to score a narrow decision win over Lawlor after another long, boring fight.
Anderson, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Lawlor is a finisher, and Anderson hasn't been, as of late. The youngster may have the height and age advantage, but he didn't utilize them effectively enough to stop Villante before Villante TKO'd him in April 2015. This is a hot take, but given Anderson's recent M.O. and Lawlor's finishing power, I'm expecting that's what we'll see.
Lawlor, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
Neither man is a stranger to dirty fighting, legal version. Clinching, short blows, scrambles and opportunism rule the day. What I want you to do right now, though, is sound the upset alarms. Sound them for the people's choice, Mr. Walkout Tom Lawlor. He'll again show that knack he has for getting his arms into the right place at the right time.
Lawlor, submission, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
I get to break the tie, eh? Anderson's style and progression tell me that I should side with him, but I'm going to trust my gut and go with the crafty veteran. Lawlor has good power and is sneaky on the ground. He is more of a threat to finish the fight.
Lawlor, submission, Rd. 3
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Gian Villante vs. Ilir Latifi
4 of 6
Craig Amos
This is the toughest fight to call, in my opinion. Both men have had moments where they've looked sensational, but both have also turned in an underwhelming performance or two. I'll go with Latifi, partly because he hits hard and Villante tends to absorb some damage, and partly because I just need to stop flip-flopping.
Latifi, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
As Craig pointed out, Latifi and Villante are somewhat inconsistent, but there's a big difference in their respective competition. Latifi got caught by Jan Blachowicz and lost to Gegard Mousasi by decision in a short-notice fight while demolishing everyone else.
Villante, though, has lost to the likes of Chad Griggs, the now-welterweight Lorenz Larkin and Fabio Maldonado. This won't be an easy one, but the resumes and skill sets point to this fight breaking in Latifi's favor.
Latifi, TKO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Villante has lost to good guys but has never beaten anyone exceptional. The same is true of Latifi, and both have a high finishing rate, but Latifi has been blitzing through his competition recently. I don't see that stopping because of Villante.
Latifi, KO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
Whenever the prospect of a brawl looms and Latifi is involved, you have to look the way of the Swede. But hold the phone. Villante is going to keep the big guy at bay with movement and tire him out. He'll fight smarter than he has before and snipe Latifi from the perimeter.
Villante, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
Only one thing makes me hesitant to pull the trigger on Villante, and that is his propensity to get hit in the face. Do you know what sledgehammer of a fist you don't want hitting your face? Latifi will get to blast Villante at least once, and that is all it will take.
Latifi, TKO, Rd. 1
Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate
5 of 6
Craig Amos
The UFC sometimes gets silly when it tries to sell certain opponents as legitimate threats to their champions, but this is not one of those times.
Holm may have obliterated the invincible Ronda Rousey, who easily defeated Tate twice, but there is truth to the narrative that is being pushed: Styles make fights, and Tate's wrestling could give Holm trouble. That said, Holm has all the tools to take this one, and the belief here is that she'll do it.
Holm, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Tate isn't given the respect she deserves and is a much more difficult matchup for Holm than the minus-400/plus-310 line would suggest, per Odds Shark. Holm is too elusive, though, and no amount of toughness will change that.
Holm, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
This is a far more straightforward pick for me. Tate is a wrestler, but she can be slow to start. Following Holm's decisive showing when she challenged Rousey, she could be equally decisive with her first title defense.
With her reach and boxing prowess, Holm will be able to stay out of Tate's reach. How much "Cupcake" wants to push the pace will determine how Holm finishes the fight. Since it's a title fight, Tate will push this right up until she gets KO'd.
Holm, KO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
Where Rousey was a hammer, Tate will be, I don't know, caulk. She's going to try to smother Holm, her kickboxing and her pan-directional movement. But the same general philosophy will hold. Neither woman will be able to pin Holm down.
The champ is beatable, but not that way.
Holm, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
I broke this fight down earlier in the week, and I'm sticking with my pick. Tate has a tendency to eat head kicks, and no one in the bantamweight division disguises them better than Holm.
Tate has to get this to the floor, but Holm has fantastic takedown defense. Oh, and she's the better athlete too. Holm comes out unscathed.
Holm. TKO, Rd. 2
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
6 of 6
Craig Amos
Diaz may be capable on the feet, but McGregor's diverse striking attacks and obscene power means Diaz's best chance of winning the fight comes on the canvas. The more I consider it, the more possible a Diaz submission feels, but I just can't go against McGregor in this matchup.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
I love what Diaz brings to this sport, but I can't look past the fact that McGregor is an awful matchup for him. Unless this fight somehow ends up on the ground (which is unlikely, since Diaz has only completed two takedowns in the last five years, according to FightMetric.com), I'm expecting McGregor to dance around, work over Diaz's body and finish him late.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 4
Sydnie Jones
McGregor's precision and timing are dangerous for anyone, but Diaz has a greater reach, is taller and 25-plus pounds heavier than what McGregor is used to facing—even given the champ has always been a huge featherweight.
Diaz's jiu-jitsu is excellent, and he's said the fight will likely go to the ground. And we know McGregor can be taken down; Chad Mendes did so four times in less than 10 minutes, and the Irishman didn't do much grappling from his back. Diaz is also a southpaw with a strong chin.
I would love for Diaz to win with Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but McGregor's speed and precision and Diaz's middling takedown rate will keep that from happening. With this 170-pound debut, McGregor will want to win definitively and establish himself as a contender for the division. But Diaz is tough enough that if McGregor does finish him, it could take a while.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 4
Scott Harris
"No one can take that left-hand shot." So speaketh the Irishman, and it will be true until it isn't. Diaz will get his shots in too and could put McGregor in real danger if this hits the mat. But ultimately McGregor's high pace and the brick where his left fist should be will be the difference, even if it doesn't force a stoppage.
McGregor, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I was cageside at UFC 194, and it made me a believer. Diaz has a solid chin, but it isn't granite. He gets hit, he gets hurt, and he doesn't have the takedown ability to threaten McGregor. And coming in on short notice is not doing him any favors. McGregor is going to ice him inside the first round.
McGregor, KO, Rd. 1
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