NASCAR at Atlanta: Preview, Prediction for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Can we just call it a season?
Like, that finish at the Daytona 500 was too good. There’s no encore this year that can top a Daytonian final lap that saw that much rubbin’ and that much racin’ all while stayin’ under green.
The greatest gift Matt Kenseth gave us was keeping that Toyota off the fence so we didn’t have all-you-can-eat green-white-checkered attempts.
Now the Sprint Cup Series heads up Interstate 95 to Georgia where the circuit will camp at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500.
This is a fast track where Jimmie Johnson will look to win for the second straight year.
Read on for this week’s preview and prediction—Hotlanta style.
By the Numbers: Atlanta Motor Speedway
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Folds of Honor Quicktrip 500
Place: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, Feb. 28
Time: 1:16 p.m. (ET)
TV: Fox, 1 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 335 laps, 500 miles
Defending winner: Jimmie Johnson
Track Record (one-lap qualifying, NASCAR Sprint Cup): Geoffrey Bodine, 197.478 mph (Nov. 15, 1997)
Biggest Storylines
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Enter the Low-Downforce Aero Package
At long last we get the low-downforce aero package that created such an entertaining—though caution-laden—product at Darlington Raceway in 2015.
NASCAR instituted the plan to put more control in the athletes' hands and to ensure the driver in the cleanest air doesn’t run away with the race.
FoxSports.com’s Darrell Waltrip wrote:
"Remember the teams raced this package twice last year so at least they have some experience with it. I expect an awesome race Sunday. Atlanta seems to always give us some of our most exciting and closest finishes. The weather looks awesome for Sunday and I expect the racing to be the same."
Atlanta’s 1.5-mile quad oval sees speeds approaching 195 mph, so how these drivers handle that speed will be part of the theater on Sunday.
Ty Dillon Starts His First Three-Pack of Races for Stewart-Haas Racing
Ty Dillon will sub in for Tony Stewart’s No. 14 Chevy on Sunday—the first of three trips.
Dillon, who will turn 24 the day before the big race on Sunday, hasn’t fared too well in eight career Sprint Cup starts. There’s a reason for that. He only started eight Sprint Cup races.
That said, he has an average start of 25.8 and an average finish of 23.2. That 23.2 average finish is better than Stewart’s mark from 2015 (24.8), so gnaw on that piece of jerky.
As for Smoke, how’s the recovery?
"Honestly, every day just keeps getting better and better," Stewart said on a call to Fox's pre-race show (via NASCAR.com). "I'm getting stronger and getting more mobile."
Will Jimmie Johnson Win Two in a Row?
Jimmie Johnson reasserted himself as a championship contender by wasting no time putt-putting over to Victory Lane in 2015.
He won the second race of the season, en route to five on the year, and became a stealthily dominant car all season.
The Joe Gibbs cars, led by Kyle Busch, stole the summer. And Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick racked up top fives with aplomb. All the while, Johnson hovered.
Unfortunately for him, engine troubles at Dover, of all places, nixed his season in the 2015 Chase.
This past Sunday at Daytona, Johnson struck the lead for 18 laps on the day, but an untimely penalty—when his pit crew jumped the wall too soon—took Johnson out of contention for another Daytona 500 win.
Two drivers, Johnson and Harvick, stand tall at 1.5-mile tracks, and that makes these two heavy favorites in Atlanta.
Drivers to Watch
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Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott, as you know, became the youngest pole winner in the history of the Daytona 500—this in his rookie year.
Barely 20 laps into the race, Elliott wrecked, forcing his car into the garage for an emergency rhinoplasty.
“We will just have to look past it and get on for Atlanta,” Elliott said in David Scott’s Charlotte Observer story. “That is the most important thing now. Can’t get caught up in what happened today; it is irrelevant now.”
How will he rebound from being so high to, in an instant, so low?
Dale Earhardt Jr.
Similarly, Dale Earnhardt Jr., aboard the highly touted “Amelia,” his restrictor-plate rocket ship, had an equally disappointing day.
Junior earned favoritism from a quorum of NASCAR pundits, all reveling in the way he handles the superspeedways.
He said he and his crew couldn’t fix the handling of the car—a theme for many drivers.
"We were just pushing real bad, just couldn't pass, couldn't be on offense,” he said in Bob Pockrass’ ESPN.com story. “We started getting it a little bit better there, but just got it too loose."
Atlanta is no superspeedway, but the speeds are intense. Junior finished third in 2015 at Atlanta after qualifying ninth, so expect the No. 88 team to get its next rig in line for a non-plate-track win.
Ty Dillon
Dillon already made an appearance on this slider, but it bears repeating.
Anytime you get a young gun such as Dillon suiting up in the Sprint Cup for multiple races, you take notice.
It’s only a matter of time before he becomes a full-time Sprint Cupper, so how will he handle the No. 14 car in his ninth career start with the big boys?
Chris Buescher (and Matt DiBenedetto)
These two drivers took part in a massive collision with the wall at Daytona, ending both their days.
At nearly top speed, Buescher and DiBenedetto hit the wall nearly head-on, rattling their cages.
“That is exponentially the hardest hit I’ve ever taken,” said Buescher in Jeff Olsen’s USA Today story. “It’s the first time I’ve ever had to be taken to the infield care center. That’s a bummer, but we’re fine.”
DiBenedetto added, “I have no excuse other than I messed up,” he said. “It happens. We were clean last year, only involved in one accident in 35 races. I hate to start the year that way, but we’re going to be fine.”
Because of that crash's severity, it will be interesting to watch how they drive in Atlanta. Will they be tentative? Gun-shy? Timid? Another synonym?
A couple of others
Matt Kenseth, because he had the lead on the final lap of the Daytona 500, and Carl Edwards, because he handled the low-downforce aero package so well at Darlington.
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Favorites
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Joey Logano
He won the pole a year ago after winning the Daytona 500. He's money on 1.5-mile tracks and finished in fourth place in this race in 2015.
Kevin Harvick
Speaking of drivers who are money on the intermediate tracks, it's Mr. Top Five/Senor Second Place Kevin Harvick. He grinded out a super-impressive fourth-place finish in the Daytona 500.
Jimmie Johnson
Won this race in 2015 and competed well in the Daytona 500 until a pit-road penalty derailed his chances at a top-five finish.
Carl Edwards
This being the first low-downforce-aero-package race, Edwards has an advantage as the last winner from this format in 2015.
Dark-Horse Pick: Kyle Larson
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Kyle Larson was that "he’s-riding-in-the-top-five?" car for a significant chunk of the Daytona 500. He did it all with a backup car.
And here’s the thing: In two races at Atlanta, Larson has done well.
In his 2014 rookie season (when the race was the penultimate contest of the year), Larson started third and finished eighth. In 2015, when the race moved to No. 2 on the calendar, Larson again qualified well, sixth in Row 3 (he’d finish 26th).
What does it all mean?
For two years running he has a car that has the speed to contend before the flag drops. Even in 2014, finishing in the top 10 boosted his credibility for Rookie of the Year.
Larson needs to develop this year and live up to the hype from his 2014 season. By finishing seventh in the Daytona 500, Larson proved something. In Atlanta, he could show us much more.
And the Winner Is...Kasey Kahne
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Kasey Kahne?
Before you get too worked up, let’s meditate on this.
Of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers at the Daytona 500, who finished the highest? #rhetoricalquestion
Kahne finished 13th and ran some of the day inside the top 10. So why will he win at Atlanta?
The last race Kahne won was in 2014 at this very track. It granted him clearance into the Chase.
Now, 2015 was his worst year in a long, long time. In fact, in terms of earnings ($4.8 million), it was the lowest of his entire career. His average finish of 18.1 was his worst since 2010.
With a hot new rookie in the garage, Kahne must be feeling the pressure to perform and what better place than where he last won?
All stats came courtesy of Race-Reference.info.
The comments section is for you. Have at it. If you want to reach out, email me or ping me on Twitter @BrendanOMeara.
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