Kentucky Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Wildcats' Season

The Kentucky Wildcats have played 25 games in the 2015-16 season, and we still don't know what to expect going forward.

While there have been plenty of surprise results around college basketball this year, Kentucky might be among the most inconsistent. The squad will have a dominant showing against a quality opponent but then follow that up with a disappointing loss against a weaker foe. As is usually the tale with this program in recent years, there's tons of talent but also a lot of youth.

So what should fans expect as we head into the final stretch of the season and into the postseason? The reality is it could be all over the place.

Obviously, the best-case scenario is winning every game, and the worst would be losing all of them, but here is a more detailed approach, looking at the two extremes for the Wildcats.

Worst Case for Regular Season

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Kentucky has looked as good as it has all season over the past three games, beating three conference opponents by a combined 80 points. Although many factors have gone into this success, one of the keys has been the lights-out shooting throughout the roster.

Over the last three games, the Wildcats have shot 50 percent (33-of-66) from three-point range. This has brought the shooting in conference play to 38.2 percent—good enough for second in the SEC. These numbers are a bit hard to imagine for anyone who watched this team earlier in the year, when it was barely cracking 30 percent on the season.

It was expected that the shooting would pick up, but this recent stretch might be a bit of a mirage. Kentucky might fall back to earth in the coming weeks, making it much tougher to beat top opponents, especially on the road.

Even with the latest win over South Carolina, the squad is just 3-5 in true road games with matchups against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Florida on the schedule. The Wildcats could stumble in a couple of these games, dropping to 13-5 or 12-6 in the SEC and short of a league title.

Best Case for Regular Season

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It is easy to be skeptical of any quality games from Kentucky, especially considering the squad hasn't had more than a three-game winning streak since November. However, the latest stretch might be for real.

First of all, wins over Florida and at South Carolina are far from easy, but the Wildcats had no problem blowing either out of the building. Additionally, the games featured excellent defense—a hallmark of Kentucky basketball that has been inconsistent at best this year.

Even the losses to Kansas and Tennessee featured flashes of greatness until poor stretches allowed the games to get away from them.

The young team is clearly getting better, and the recent success should only build more confidence. If Kentucky can avenge its loss to Tennessee Thursday, the squad will have enough momentum that it will be difficult for anyone left in the conference to stop.

A final home game against LSU on March 5 could be the clinching win for an SEC regular-season title.

Worst Case for SEC Tournament

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Even if Kentucky does struggle a bit down the stretch, the team should finish in the conference's top four with a bye to the quarterfinals. This will be important because extra games are not ideal.

The past few games have featured more depth than usual, but the Wildcats still rely heavily on their best players staying on the floor. Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray each played 38 minutes in the blowout over South Carolina, and all three starting guards average at least 32 minutes per game in conference play.

While Kentucky will be able to beat a lower-tier team in the quarterfinals, playing again the next day won't be easy as fatigue sets in. Winning three nights in a row seems especially unlikely for this group.

Add in the struggles away from Rupp Arena, and a semifinal exit in the SEC tournament appears like a real possibility.

Best Case for SEC Tournament

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A few weeks ago, the SEC appeared to have caught up with Kentucky with a bunch of teams becoming real threats to take home a conference title. The problem is many of them have fallen apart since then.

Texas A&M was the clear favorite in the league after a 7-0 start, but the squad has since lost five conference games in a row with only a win over Iowa State in this stretch. Florida, Vanderbilt and LSU have put together impressive wins but also have a few disappointing losses as inconsistency dooms them all. South Carolina had a chance to take control this week, but the Wildcats took care of that with an 89-62 beatdown.

Kentucky is the one peaking at the right time and once again seems like the conference's best team.

If Alex Poythress can get back to full strength by then, the Wildcats will have the depth and talent to go into Nashville and cruise to their second SEC tournament title in a row.

Worst Case for NCAA Tournament

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Even if things continue to go wrong around Lexington, it's important to remember how crazy this season has been. According to the Bracket Matrix, Kentucky is projected to be a No. 4 seed, which means even adding some more losses as the year continues would keep the squad no worse than a No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

With the amount of talent on the roster, the Wildcats should at least get through the first round no matter the opponent.

However, there are definitely teams that can beat Kentucky. Anyone with size to grab offensive rebounds and keep Marcus Lee and company off the boards could cause problems, as would a team that can push the tempo and find easy baskets in transition.

The Wildcats have also had problems with foul trouble in the frontcourt as well as questionable free-throw shooting at 67.2 percent on the year. These factors could lead to a close loss with the stakes at their highest.

If things don't go well, Kentucky could be looking at a second-round exit in the Big Dance.

Best Case for NCAA Tournament

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An easy comparison for this team is the 2013-14 Wildcats, who had an up-and-down regular season before waking up in the postseason. A team with nine regular-season losses went to the SEC tournament final and got all the way to the national title game as a No. 8 seed before falling to Connecticut.

This is obviously a completely different roster, but there is no doubting the players' abilities. Ulis is one of the best pure point guards in the nation and is even more dangerous with his shot falling. Murray could end up being the most dangerous scorer in the NCAA tournament outside of possibly Buddy Hield. Even Skal Labissiere could use the big stage to justify his projection as a top-10 NBA draft pick, per Draft Express.

Perhaps most importantly, there are no dominant teams across college basketball like there were last year with Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke. Anyone can be beaten, and the Final Four could feature some interesting seeds.

Kentucky can go on a run that puts it up to a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament with a path that takes it all the way to Houston. From there, the elite guard play and improved defense ends up being enough to bring home John Calipari's second national championship.

This won't be an easy goal to accomplish, but you simply can't count this group out just yet.

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