Cornered Miami Heat Need Pat Riley's Creative Magic at NBA Trade Deadline
MIAMI — The upcoming NBA trade deadline is equal parts puzzling and straightforward for the Miami Heat.
Sitting 26th in three-point makes and 28th in percentage, it's obvious where this roster needs improvement: outside shooting.
Where this gets tricky, though, is deciphering what the Heat can and would part with to address their greatest need. With no valuable future draft picks to move and desires to chase the top upcoming free agents, there's no real way to sweeten a trade pot.
Whatever they dangle on the open market is likely to come from their current rotation, which carries considerable risk for a hopeful contender.
Backed Into a Corner
"I've talked to Heat executives who have been working the phones over the last month to try to 'balance the roster,' is how they put it," ESPN.com's Michael Wallace told Bleacher Report. "They don't want to just disrupt what this team is trying to build. Having said that, they do know that they need another shooter."
Without some perimeter relief, the Heat are handcuffing their own offense.
So much of their attack is centered around the basket: Dwyane Wade's post-ups, Goran Dragic's penetrations, Hassan Whiteside's posterizing finishes. When there's nothing to stretch the defense out, the floor shrinks, passing windows get smaller and this club has only a wafer-thin margin of error.
"To get in that upper part of the East, it's tough to do that without shooting," Chris Bosh said, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. "... We could always use another shooter. Everybody could. It's a perceived weakness we have and it's something we have to get over."
The Heat won't fill this void without first giving up a player they value.
They can't move a first-rounder at the moment, since their top 2016 selection is likely headed to the Philadelphia 76ers (from the LeBron James sign-and-trade) and two future firsts belong to the Phoenix Suns (for Goran Dragic). Miami's most intriguing prospect also leads its regulars in net efficiency (Justise Winslow, plus-5.1), so cashing in that trade chip is probably too dramatic a move too make.
"It's hard to see how Miami can get a playable small forward in the trade market, in light of its lack of assets," Ethan Skolnick of the Miami Herald said. "So the goal should be to try to get an upgrade over Gerald Green off the bench, since Green is shooting just 31.9 percent from deep."
Are expectations tempered yet? They should be.
Who's Gotta Go?
Consider whom the Heat might actually deal.
Wade, Chris Bosh and, for sentimental reasons, Udonis Haslem are all off the table. Both Wallace and Skolnick downplayed the possibility of trading Winslow and said a superstar package must be up for grabs to do so. Pulling the plug on Goran Dragic would also feel premature.
ESPN's Chris Broussard said on SportsCenter that the Heat have been "at least gauging" what they could get for Whiteside after his latest ejection. But the league's leading shot-blocker is incredibly tough to trade given his massive potential, minuscule $981,348 salary and impending unrestricted free agency.
There's a chance, Skolnick said, that Miami's top trade chip is "probably Tyler Johnson." He looks like a nice player, but he's also an undrafted sophomore who's out indefinitely following shoulder surgery. He's a piece to be used in "a small deal for a shooter," Skolnick said, but he wouldn't anchor any blockbuster transactions.
It's always hard to say never with Pat Riley at the helm, but the chances of getting a big fish by Thursday's deadline look slim. If nothing else, it would be almost impossible lining the money up for a headline-grabbing trade.
Luol Deng's expiring $10.1 million deal appears movable, but the Heat would then be out one of their most versatile defenders. Chris Andersen could be a tough sell as anything more than an expiring salary. And Josh McRoberts wouldn't be easy to deal with his stats declining and salary on the rise.
Not to mention, any incoming players would have to fit the franchise's current timeline.
"Pat Riley wants to keep the books relatively clean for 2016," Skolnick said. "So even if there's an interesting option, Riley may pass if the player has too many years left."
What Can Pat Do?
As tempting as it may sound to get an immediate lift while letting someone else decide Whiteside's price or Winslow's offensive role, a franchise-altering addition is unlikely to arrive before the offseason.
If the Heat make any moves now, both Wallace and Skolnick have heard the same name to watch: Omri Casspi, a low-maintenance support piece who's hit 41.6 percent from three over this season and last.
The Sacramento Kings aren't looking to just dump Casspi, so the Heat need to offer more than salary relief. Johnson, a restricted free agent at season's end, could help get something done.
It's debatable whether Casspi's present will trump Johnson's future, but that's not the issue. The Heat would get a helpful piece for this season's rotation without giving one up and address their greatest weakness.
Getting someone like Casspi—or Phoenix Suns sniper Mirza Teletovic, who Skolnick said is another possibility—won't ultimately determine Miami's odds of contending. But the need for shooting is great enough that addressing it like this could add another round to the Heat's playoff lives.
Plus, this type of transaction could help with Miami's other main goal: lowering (or eliminating) its luxury-tax bill.
"Miami is still aggressively looking to move Chris Andersen to reduce its tax burden and might need to include Johnson and Jarnell Stokes to do it," Skolnick said. "If the Heat can get a rotation shooter on a short deal, all the better."
The other point of emphasis will be increasing the flexibility for this roster. Given the potential difficulties of trading for the Heat, they must position themselves to be players in the buyout market. That should be another tool to help with their perimeter problems.
"I know for a fact they're going to create a roster position," Wallace said. "They're going to have to either release someone or trade two people to get back one. Joe Johnson is one of those names that comes up, other guys that are on expiring contracts that aren't really playing that well, those kind of guys come up. You're going to need to have that roster spot available to bring someone in."
And there's always the possibility—however remote—that they can talk former three-point savior Ray Allen into a comeback.
"According to several sources," Skolnick previously reported, "the Heat have not only had a standing offer to Allen to return to the team ever since the 2014 offseason, but they made additional overtures as recently as this summer. Allen, however, has never bit."
No matter the method, these would all be ways of finding support—which is essentially all the Heat can shop for. Barring an unforeseen blockbuster, their core is locked and loaded for the stretch run.
They'll have plenty to sort out this summer, and they'll put off any big-game hunting plans until then. But they'll be actively involved in the margins, as they search out a bargain or two through every external acquisition method available.
"The trade deadline may pass Miami by, and they may not make a move," Wallace said. "But this roster will be tinkered with between now and the first week of March."
Unless otherwise noted, quotes obtained firsthand. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
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