Broncos' Plan to Beat Panthers Defense in Super Bowl Must Start on the Ground

This Sunday, the Denver Broncos will face off against the Carolina Panthers in the NFL's 50th Super Bowl. When it comes to matchups, it almost feels like this game was custom-made for such a monumental stage.

We have Carolina and the league's highest-scoring offense (31.2 points per game) going up against Denver's first-ranked defense (just 283.1 yards per game allowed). We also have the old gunslinger in Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning facing off against the new kid, Cam Newton, and his fun-loving Panthers.

However, lost in the talk of the old school versus the new and of the top offense against the top defense is a matchup that will go far in determining the outcome of the game.

Just how is the 39-year-old Manning and his offense supposed to match up against a Panthers defense that has only allowed one team to beat it this season? 

No, the Carolina defense isn't quite as dominant as the one Denver will be bringing to the party. However, it is still a very good unit, ranked sixth in both points allowed (19.2 per game) and yards allowed (322.9 per game). The players on that side of the ball are quick and determined, and they know how to play with a big lead, something the Panthers have done with frequency. 

Can Manning, who struggled with consistency issues and injuries throughout the season and who only returned from plantar fasciitis in the regular-season finale, really lead Denver against this group and come out on top?

The answer is yes, but the charge will have to begin on the ground.

There are several reasons why looking to and sticking with the ground game can give the Broncos an edge in their coming matchup. The most obvious is that it would help keep the Panthers defense honest and protect Manning.

Manning was never the most mobile quarterback, and aging hasn't helped. He knows how to slide around in the pocket to give himself breathing room, to be sure, but he isn't going to outrun the pass rush anytime soon.

He was sacked 16 times in 10 games in the regular season, which isn't awful. However, he was sacked three times for a loss of 31 yards against the New England Patriots in the AFC title game, which is concerning.

The Panthers don't have an elite pass-rushing unit, but they can bring a lot of interior pressure and tend to excel when teams are in a clear passing situation. This is why they produced 44 sacks in the regular season and eight in two postseason games despite being a group rated just 13th in pass rush by Pro Football Focus.

Because the Panthers frequently found themselves playing with a lead, guys such as Kawann Short (11 sacks in regular season) and Mario Addison (six) were regularly able to focus on rushing against a one-dimensional offense. 

The fact Carolina is downright scary in pass coverage (rated first overall by Pro Football Focus) only makes things worse for teams that are forced to throw the ball. A Denver commitment to running the football would help ensure the Carolina defense can't just pin its ears back and attack Manning.

It would also limit the chances of the football sailing into the arms of the Carolina secondary, which snagged 24 interceptions in the regular season.

Of course, if Newton and the Panthers offense get hot and Carolina jumps out to a large early lead, then the Broncos could find themselves in that one-dimensional trap anyway. Therefore, it would behoove Denver to utilize the running game to control the tempo of the game, control the clock and keep the ball away from Newton and Co. for as long and as often as possible.

This is a feasible challenge because the Broncos have two talented running backs in C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. The duo combined for 1,583 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns and 4.4 yards per carry in the regular season. Each has shown the ability to carry the load at various times this season. 

This is important because it gives Denver flexibility in the ground game. Head coach Gary Kubiak and offensive coordinator Rick Dennison can choose to ride the hot hand or rotate the two to ensure the team has a fresh back in the game at all times. This should ensure that the running game remains effective while the Broncos are playing keep-away with the football.

Of course, keeping the Panthers offense on the sidelines also means the Denver defense will be on the bench, resting and preparing to attack once it gets on the field. The Denver defense is as good as any we've seen in the Super Bowl in some time, and the players on that side of the football are motivated to put the game on their shoulders.

“I want to do it for DeMarcus [Ware] and Peyton and Coach [Wade] Phillips,” Broncos linebacker Von Miller said of winning the big one, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk.

By utilizing the run game and a ball-control offense, the Broncos can help keep their defense fresh and dangerous for those critical moments late in the half or at the end of the game.

Perhaps the biggest reason of all for Denver to focus on running the football, though, is that rushing can yield results against the Carolina defense. Carolina is ranked fourth in total rushing yards allowed (just 88.4 per game), but the Panthers defense doesn't look quite as special when you look at the averages.

The Panthers surrendered an average of 3.9 yards per carry in the regular season, which is still a top-10 average. However, the Panthers have allowed 4.9 yards per rush in the postseason. For a frame of reference, 4.9 yards per carry is what the league-worst New Orleans Saints run defense surrendered in the regular season.

As a team, the Panthers are rated 15th overall in run defense by Pro Football Focus. 

The fact Panthers Pro Bowl linebacker Thomas Davis is dealing with a broken forearm is likely to make Carolina even more susceptible to the run. Davis was one of the team's leading tacklers in the regular season (second behind Luke Kuechly with 105) and is the team's top-rated linebacker against the run, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Davis does plan to play, of course, and no one should question his toughness.

“Without a doubt, I will be there playing on Super Bowl Sunday,” he said, per D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. 

The question, as NFL Network's Albert Breer recently pointed out, is how effective Davis can be:

If Davis isn't close to 100 percent, the Broncos could find even more success in their ground game on Super Bowl Sunday.

All of this brings us back to the original point of protecting Manning. Asking him to put the game on his 39-year-old throwing shoulder against this talented Panthers team would be a mistake. However, asking him to make an occasional big play while the ground attack and the defense control everything else wouldn't. 

In fact, it could well be the recipe for success that allows Manning to go out on top. He's carried his teams time and time again during his pro career and has only one ring to show for it. If Denver and its running game can carry Manning on Sunday, ring No. 2 might just be waiting.