Super Bowl 50: Winner, Final Box-Score Predictions for Panthers vs. Broncos

A traditional box score won't reveal either Super Bowl participant's true strength. Individual glory manifests fantasy football championships, but the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos made Super Bowl 50 due to team-wide domination.

Some of the best stat lines ever didn't procure titles for Peyton Manning, but the legendary quarterback can end the worst season of his storied career on top. It's possible Denver prevails. Just don't expect a fairy-tale ending of the 39-year-old suddenly turning back the clock and churning out one last memorable outing. 

Counting two impressive playoff performances, Cam Newton has collected 50 total touchdowns through 18 games. Yet, Carolina is not buoyed by a star-studded cast of skill players. Instead, it is fueled by a menacing offensive line and defense whose accomplishments shouldn't get discredited when juxtaposed against Denver's top-ranked unit.

Neither side will light up the scoreboard, but the Panthers won't need another 49-point display to beat Manning's Broncos.

Date	Time (ET)	Matchup	TV	Prediction
Sun., Feb. 7	6:30 p.m.	Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos	CBS	24-16 CAR

Panthers

Player	Predictions
QB Cam Newton	16-27, 220 YD, 1 TD, 45 Rush YD, 1 TD
RB Jonathan Stewart	20 Rush, 78 YD, 1 TD
WR Ted Ginn Jr.	5 TAR, 1 REC, 25 YD
WR Corey Brown	6 TAR, 4 REC, 60 YD
WR Devin Funchess	3 TAR, 2 REC, 20 YD
TE Greg Olsen	11 TAR, 7 REC, 90 YD, 1 TD
DT Kawann Short	3 TCK, 1 Sack
LB Luke Kuechly	8 TCK, 1 INT
LB Thomas Davis	7 TCK, 1 Sack
FS Kurt Coleman	6 TCK, 1 PD, 1 INT

It turns out Denver's defense is really good. During the season, it allowed a league-low 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 3.3 yards per rush, leading to an NFL-best 283.1 yards relinquished per game. Although the Broncos dodged a bullet by facing an injured Ben Roethlisberger without DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown, the New England Patriots had no such excuse.

So how does Carolina handle a defense that established permanent residency in Tom Brady's pocket? Probably better than the Pats did. 

No defense can match the Broncos, who boast both a ferocious front seven and two lockdown cornerbacks in Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib. Yet, the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals weren't exactly the New Orleans Saints in terms of stopping offenses. Against the season's No. 2 and 5 defenses, respectively, the Panthers established an effective, balanced attack.

Newton carried over his late-season surge versus elite competition. The quarterback completed 70 percent of his passes, averaging 9.92 yards per pass. His MVP case was faulty midway through the regular season, but the 26-year-old has since earned every bit of praise directed his way:

CMP %	PASS YPG	YPA	PASS TD	INT	RUSH YD	RUSH TD
71.3	2,513	9.01	24	2	343	7

Newton also enjoys a luxury unavailable to Russell Wilson or Carson Palmer. He doesn't have Larry Fitzgerald or even Doug Baldwin at wideout, but Greg Olsen provides a true difference-maker at tight end. The Broncos aren't necessarily vulnerable to the position, but they're slightly less unstoppable.

Per Football Outsiders, they yielded 61.7 yards per game to tight ends during the season, not counting Rob Gronkowski's 144 yards during the AFC Championship Game. No. 1 wide receivers gained one fewer yard per contest, not that Carolina carries a true top wideout anyway. Maybe Ted Ginn Jr. lands one huge play, but he's also just as likely to not catch a single pass.

Olsen, meanwhile, is a steady presence. After entering the playoffs with a team-high 77 receptions and 1,104 yards, he compiled consecutive six-catch games against Seattle and Arizona. As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, it's rare but not unprecedented for a tight end to headline a championship passing attack:

Meanwhile, the running backs left standing on Pittsburgh and New England make Jonathan Stewart look like Emmitt Smith. Refreshed from a month off, the veteran running back registered 189 yards on 38 postseason handoffs, creating a threat for Denver's defense to assess.

He won't carve out gaping holes on the ground, but Carolina won't need him to. Unlike New England's offensive line, Carolina's blockers will give Newton a fighting chance to make enough plays with his arm and legs. If the Panthers push past 20 points—below their usual baseline—they'll engineer enough scoring to prevail.

Broncos

Player	Predictions
QB Peyton Manning	19-33, 205 YD, 1 TD, 2 INT
RB C.J. Anderson	14 Rush, 68 YD, 2 REC, 20 YD
RB Ronnie Hillman	12 Rush, 34 YD
WR Demaryius Thomas	8 TAR, 4 REC, 55 YD
WR Emmanuel Sanders	11 TAR, 7 REC, 80 YD, 1 TD
TE Owen Daniels	5 TAR, 2 REC, 20 YD
DE DeMarcus Ware	2 TCK, 0.5 Sack
LB Von Miller	3 TCK, 1.5 Sack
LB Danny Trevathan	7 TCK
CB Chris Harris Jr.	3 TCK, 1 PD

The Broncos have mastered the art of passively preserving late leads. They have now won eight of Manning's 12 starts by seven points or less, averaging 22.7 points per contest. In order for them to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, they will need to win ugly one more time.

FiveThirtyEight.com's Neil Paine gave Denver fans goods news and bad news. First, the bad: Although he's arguably the greatest of all time, Peyton's current Super Bowl form is on par with that of Rex Grossman leading the Chicago Bears to the 2007 title game, which they lost to Manning's Indianapolis Colts back when he was still Manning. Paine's study labeled Manning's per-play performance this season as the worst ever by a Super Bowl quarterback.

On the bright side, Paine doesn't believe that's enough to disqualify the Broncos:

"

Whether you look at total or per-attempt measures of value, there’s essentially zero correlation between the disparity in regular-season QB performance for the Super Bowl opponents and the eventual point margin of the game itself. This makes sense, as the equilibrium of a successful team will account for poor play from any given position (even QB) if the rest of the team is strong enough.

"

It certainly is reason to worry, though. Relentless ball hawks, the Panthers have recorded 30 interceptions in 18 games. Manning, meanwhile, didn't go a full game without donating a pick before doing it twice this postseason. If he dares to challenge Josh Norman, the star cornerback at least plans to honor the legend, as he relayed to ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler:

"

He's 'The Sheriff,' man. I've admired him since I grew up. I have a lot of respect for that guy. ... Even though he's got some age on him, he's 'The Sheriff.' If I even get the ball from him, if he throws an interception or something and the guy allows me to be there for it, I'm probably going to bow to him. That's how much I really think about a guy.

"

Whether it's Norman, Kurt Coleman, Luke Kuechly or someone else, don't be surprised if Carolina alters the game with a key turnover or two. 

Given Manning's limitations, a strong ground game is crucial to Denver's success. Per Pro Football Focus, the veteran quarterback is at his best when springing off the rushing attack:

Hey there, Gary Kubiak. If you happen to be reading this, you might want to go ahead and stop splitting carries between C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. While the former recorded two straight 72-yard outings out of the timeshare, the latter turned 11 handoffs into 16 yards against New England.

The Cardinals' high-octane passing offense seemed like the perfect candidate to exploit Carolina, but their three top wideouts (Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown) combined for 90 yards on nine catches. Norman should monitor No. 1 receiver Demaryius Thomas, and linebackers Kuechly and Thomas Davis won't let tight end Owen Daniels snag another two scores. Look for Manning to target Emmanuel Sanders heavily but not with enough success downfield to muster an upset.