2016 Season a Make-or-Break Year for James Franklin at Penn State

It was two years ago that James Franklin took over as the head coach at Penn State, and like any hiring, his arrival in Happy Valley was met with no shortage of questions.

How would the former Vanderbilt coach transition from SEC underdog to traditional Big Ten power? For how long would the unprecedented sanctions of the Jerry Sandusky scandal affect his tenure? And would Franklin ultimately be able to return the Nittany Lions to national prominence in a Big Ten that seemed to be on the verge of an upswing?

But only one question about the state of the Penn State program seems to persist as Franklin enters his third offseason in State College: Will the Nittany Lions head coach make it to a fourth?

Given the lackluster returns on the field and the concerning developments off of it in recent weeks, it's one with an answer that appears very much in doubt.

After a finishing the 2015 campaign with a loss to Georgia in the TaxSlayer Bowl, bringing Franklin's two-season record at Penn State to 14-12, the Nittany Lions staff has undergone an unexpected and somewhat alarming overhaul. It started when defensive coordinator Bob Shoop left to take over the same position at Tennessee, and continued with well-regarded offensive line coach Herb Hand's decision to do the same at Auburn.

Coupled with the firing of offensive coordinator John Donovan, Penn State finds itself replacing three assistants, including both of its primary coordinators. Add in the departures of eight players with eligibility remaining due to either early entry in the NFL draft, transfer or injury, and the turnover in State College is significant, which isn't unheard of in today's day and age of college football.

But while Big Ten East rival Ohio State finds itself replenishing its roster after nine underclassmen declared for the NFL draft and, like Michigan, is forced to replace a defensive coordinator who was hired as a head coach in-conference, the changes in Happy Valley aren't coming as a result of success, but rather, a lack thereof.

How else would one explain assistants leaving a traditional power for the same positions elsewhere, or players like quarterback Christian Hackenberg declaring for the draft despite having seen his stock diminish in the past two years under Franklin?

Paul Vernon/Associated Press

The third-year Nittany Lions head coach has yet to speak publicly about the unexpected departures of his assistants—in fairness to him, national signing day is just two weeks away—but in a radio interview with The Steve Jones Show (h/t the Morning Call), Penn State athletic director Sandy Barbour admitted that the unexpected overturn, particularly on the coaching staff, is a change of pace in State College.

"Penn State is not used to this," Barbour said. "And that's a really good thing."

What's not good in Happy Valley, however, is the fashion in which some of the Nittany Lions' departing players are leaving.

For instance, take wide receiver Geno Lewis, whose transfer to Oklahoma was accompanied by criticism of the Penn State coaching staff from his father in a since-deleted tweet. Lewis' father accused Franklin and wide receivers coach Josh Gattis of lying to his son and refusing to meet with him to discuss his concerns.

Perhaps more damning was Hackenberg's declaration that he'd be entering the upcoming draft, which came immediately following the TaxSlayer Bowl. In what appeared to be a prepared statement, as shared by the Morning Call's Mark Wogenrich, the former 5-star signal-caller opted to thank his former head coach, Bill O'Brien, but not Franklin, who coached him for twice as long in State College:

Hackenberg's relationship with Franklin has always seemed to be a tenuous one, with the head coach inheriting the blue-chip quarterback who didn't seem to necessarily fit his preferred style of offense. Following the Nittany Lions' season-opening loss to Temple last September, Hackenberg's brother took to Twitter to seemingly criticize Penn State's play-calling, which has become a reoccurring issue since Franklin's arrival in State College.

"People have no clue," Brandon Hackenberg tweeted, per PennLive.com's Dustin Hockensmith. "You have a Ferrari, yet drive 30 miles under the speed limit." 

Of course, there's always going to be some awkwardness when a coach inherits a roster he didn't recruit, especially one as limited as the one Franklin did due to NCAA sanctions. Throughout 2014, the Nittany Lions were decimated by injuries, and their 7-6 record, including a win in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl, could have been viewed by some as overachieving.

But while there's still some validity to the built-in excuses that Franklin inherited, their shelf life is running short. Perhaps more alarming is that as the effects of the scholarship sanctions wear off, Penn State's recruiting appears to be trending downward from what was originally expected after seemingly being one of Franklin's strengths early in his Nittany Lions tenure.

Following a 2015 recruiting cycle that saw Penn State's class slip from being ranked second nationally at one time to ultimately 14th, the Nittany Lions' 2016 class seems to be following a similar path. Ranked fourth nationally as recent as August, Penn State's upcoming haul currently sits at 12th in the nation with two weeks to go until national signing day.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Meanwhile, Ohio State lays claim to the nation's top-ranked class for 2016, and Michigan currently possesses the nation's third-ranked class. The Nittany Lions will not only have to play both of those teams, but also reigning Big Ten champ Michigan State on an annual basis, making any potential rise up the Big Ten East an uphill climb.

With all that Penn State's replacing and all that it's been through, placing such a strong emphasis on just one season might not be fair. But it's a safe assumption that columns asking whether Rutgers would be able to benefit from the turmoil at Penn State were not what many had in mind for the start of Year 3 when Franklin was hired two years ago.

Franklin's not yet on the hot seat, but at this point, the honeymoon phase is over—if it ever existed in the first place. The coming year, new quarterback, coordinators and all, will go a long way toward setting the tone for the remainder of Franklin's time in Happy Valley.

If this offseason has been any indication, that may not be very long.

Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.