Predicting the Biggest Steals of the 2016 NBA Draft Class

We always see prospects slip through the cracks during the evaluation process for the NBA draft. Age, average athleticism and/or poor fit in college systems can mask a player's potential. 

It happens every year. Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Larry Nance Jr. have jumped out as possible steals from the 2015 class.

In predicting 2016's steals, I only considered prospects projected to fall outside the lottery. They each have specific weaknesses that naturally raise questions about their transition from college to the pros. And their draft stocks will be affected.

I'm anticipating the following players to go anywhere from the mid-first round to the second—and eventually make a number of teams look silly for passing.

Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, SG, Senior)

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Projected Draft Range: 15-30

Already 22 years old without the athleticism that teams are traditionally willing to chase, Valentine could have a tough time triggering a bite in the lottery. That just makes him a potential value pick in the 15-30 range, where general managers could find an NBA-ready player and long-term glue guy.

While it's tough to picture his 17.6-points-per-game average translating, Valentine's shooting stroke and passing should work well in a supporting role. He's making 2.9 three-pointers per game (38.5 percent clip) and ranks fourth nationally in assist percentage, per Sports-Reference.com. 

He doesn't have the quickness to run the point in the pros, but at 6'5", 220 pounds, he projects as a secondary ball-handler from the 2-guard slot, where he can spread the floor, move the rock and score opportunistically off drives, pull-ups and floaters. 

Landing on a playoff team with open spots in the rotation would only help expedite Valentine's transition to the pros. 

Malik Newman (Mississippi State, PG/SG, Freshman)

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Projected Draft Range: 20-40

The buzz surrounding Newman—a consensus top-10 recruit (ESPN, Rivals, 247 Sports), McDonald's All-American and FIBA world champion—has really died down two months into his freshman season. 

But some blame must be credited to his role as a secondary option for a losing team that doesn't get national attention. And as a result, Newman may have actually gone from overhyped to underrated. 

Despite the pedestrian numbers (13.1 points and 2.3 assists), we've still seen the first step, handle and shot-making (38.4 percent from deep and making 2.4 threes per game) that initially fueled Monta Ellis comparisons. 

Consistently executing may take some time, but Newman has looked dangerous as a pull-up scorer, spot-up shooter and attacker.

He hasn't had much playmaking freedom under coach Ben Howland. The freshman's chances to showcase his setup ability have been limited. But in doses, we have seen Newman find teammates off dribble penetration and transition opportunities, and though not known as a facilitator, he's still looked willing and capable as a passer.

Newman hasn't jumped out as the superstar combo guard he was in high school, but his potential didn't completely disappear. It just looks different. Assuming he declares, Newman could be a strong buy-low candidate as a possible scoring and playmaking sixth man down the road.

Taurean Prince (Baylor, SF, Senior)

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Projected Draft Range: 20-40

He doesn't appear to offer any one special skill, but Prince's versatility looks NBA friendly. And so far this year, he's managed to strengthen that versatility by improving his off-the-dribble game and passing. He already has 49 assists through two months after totaling just 42 through his entire junior season. 

Still, it's his three-and-D identity that could lead to success in the NBA. At 6'7", 220 pounds, Prince has a good-looking stroke and encouraging defensive tools. He's averaging at least two threes and two steals per 40 minutes for the second straight year. 

And though not a great one-on-one scorer, Prince has demonstrated the body control and touch to finish slashes, floaters and takes in transition. 

He even looks like a viable small-ball 4 option, given his ability to stretch the floor and physically match up with power forwards.

Prince doesn't offer standout upside, but he's young for a senior (turns 22 in August) and has added something new to his game every season. I'm buying Prince as an NBA contributor likely to wind up going anywhere from the late first to mid-second round. 

Kay Felder (Oakland, PG, Junior)

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Projected Draft Range: 25-50

Standing just 5'9" out of the Horizon League, Felder is likely to receive only so much love during the NBA draft process. With that type of size for a mid-major guard, not even 25.8 points and 8.7 assists per game guarantees first-round interest. 

But assuming we're talking about a pick in the 25-45 range, I'd take a stab at Felder in a heartbeat.

Like many sub-6'0" players who've found NBA success, Felder compensates for height with the quickness to break down defenses and create significant separation one-on-one. He's not a fun cover off the dribble, where he changes speed and direction on the dime. 

The fact that Felder can connect from the perimeter, whether he's pulling up, stepping back or spotting up, is also a major plus, given the challenge that will come with finishing at the rim. He's making 2.3 threes per game (36.4 percent) and 83 percent of his free throws.

The nation's leader in assists, Felder isn't just a shot-hunter with a green light and mediocre schedule. He also has a strong playmaking IQ as a drive-and-dish and pick-and-roll facilitator. 

Meanwhile, during the three games Oakland has faced ranked or power-conference competition (Michigan State, Virginia, Washington), Felder has averaged 35 points and seven assists.

For a late first- or second-round team, it's worth finding out if he's the next coming of Isaiah Thomas. I see him carving out a niche as a change-of-pace playmaker off the bench.

Joel Bolomboy (Weber State, PF, Senior)

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Projected Draft Range: 25-60

Bolomboy has been a monster through two months after making a notable jump his junior season.

He ranks second nationally in both rebounds per game (13.7) and rebounding percentage (24.7 percent), per Sports-Reference.com. And though he doesn't see many future pros in the Big Sky conference, at 6'9", 230 pounds, Bolomboy offers convincing size, mobility and destructive athleticism around the rim.

His presence under the boards alone may be worth targeting in the second round. But it's the strides he's made offensively that really strengthen his 2016 draft case. 

Bolomboy has raised his two-point percentage to 62.3 percent from just 49.2 percent last year. And he's scoring at a much better rate—23.2 points per 40 minutes, up from 16 points. 

We've even seen improved perimeter shooting touch—Bolomboy has hit 45.3 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com, and 10 of his 28 three-point attempts.

He isn't an advanced scorer or passer, but in a role that asks him to react instead of make decisions, Bolomboy's physical tools, nose for the ball and finishing ability could hold value.