Super Bowl 2016: Updated Favorites and Odds Entering Wild Card Weekend
As of Thursday morning, oddsmakers are projecting a historic Wild Card Weekend.
Since installing the current NFL playoff format in 1990, all four road teams have never advanced past the opening round. It nearly happened two postseasons ago, but the Indianapolis Colts rallied to outlast the Kansas City Chiefs in a 45-44 shootout.
The Chiefs are one of those away participants favored to win this time around, per Odds Shark. Washington, who needed a Week 17 blowout over the comatose Dallas Cowboys to earn a positive point differential, has the best chance of avoiding underdog status.
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The wild cards could have their fun, but the resting division winners remain the top favorites. Let's take a look at two of those top candidates to seize the Lombardi Trophy.
Playoff Picture
Wild-Card Schedule and Odds
| Sat., 1/9 | 4:35 p.m. | Kansas City Chiefs | Houston Texans | KC -3.5 |
| Sat., 1/9 | 8:15 p.m. | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | PIT -2.5 |
| Sun., 1/10 | 1:05 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks | Minnesota Vikings | SEA -5 |
| Sun., 1/10 | 4:40 p.m. | Green Bay Packers | Washington Redskins | GB -1 |
Super Bowl Odds
| Arizona Cardinals | 7-2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 7-2 |
| New England Patriots | 7-2 |
| Denver Broncos | 9-2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9-2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 17-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 20-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 22-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 25-1 |
| Washington Redskins | 35-1 |
| Houston Texans | 65-1 |
Super Bowl Favorites
New England Patriots
Even though they're the defending champions seeking their fifth straight AFC Championship Game appearance, the New England Patriots aren't strutting their way into the tournament. Earning the No. 1 seed seemed like a formality until they dropped their final two games against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins to round out the regular season. Now all roads instead travel through Denver.
Through their 10-0 start, Tom Brady averaged 332 passing yards per game. He has since recorded 241.7 yards per bout, amassing a combined 365 yards and one touchdown through the last two losses. New England has dropped four of those six contests, only once topping 30 points.
Yet despite their concerning finish, Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar noted their similar overall point tallies to last season:
The Patriots squandered the top spot to the Denver Broncos, but they still hold a first-round bye. No team needed an off week more than the Pats, who closed out the season without wide receiver Julian Edelman, left tackle Sebastian Vollmer, linebacker Dont'a Hightower and defensive end Chandler Jones.
During Wednesday's news conference, per ESPN's Mike Reiss, Brady discussed the importance of a resting week for a team saddled with a Week 4 bye:
"This is the first time we've had off in quite a while. A lot of guys have been fighting through different bumps and bruises over the course of the season, so you try to take advantage of it the best you can to feel good, because we're going to need everybody a week from Saturday to be at their very best.
"
Late slide aside, no team surrendered fewer turnovers than New England's 14. If both road favorites win, the club will host the Chiefs, winners of 10 straight and ranked No. 2 in ball security. It will take healthy returns, particularly from Edelman and Hightower, to avoid an early upset.
Carolina Panthers
The 15-1 Carolina Panthers hold the league's best record. The NFC runs through Bank of America Stadium, where they didn't lost all season. FiveThirtyEight's forecast from Jay Boice and Nate Silver gives them the highest probability (20 percent) of winning the Super Bowl:
| Carolina Panthers | 20 % |
| Arizona Cardinals | 17 % |
| Denver Broncos | 15 % |
| New England Patriots | 13 % |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9 % |
They're also in grave danger of losing in the divisional round and going no deeper than last year's 7-9 NFC South champions.
If the Seattle Seahawks knock off the Minnesota Vikings, Carolina must immediately neutralize one of its two biggest threats. For the fourth straight season, Seattle allowed the fewest points per game and placed first in Football Outsiders' Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Carolina doesn't boast a star wide receiver, but tight end Greg Olsen is the team's key to a title run. As noted by ESPN's Bill Barnwell, Seattle rates No. 26 in DVOA against opposing tight ends. This weakness was apparent when Olsen delivered 131 yards and a game-winning score to cement Carolina's 27-23 Week 6 victory over the Seahawks.
Per ESPN's David Newton, the Pro Bowl tight end decried the notion that Carolina lacks offensive weapons.
"At some point the narrative that we don’t have a lot of good players has to probably come to an end," Olsen said. "We’ve seen throughout the course of the season we have guys that can contribute all over the place."
The Panthers wouldn't possess the top record without a favorable schedule, but they bested three NFC postseason participants (the Seahawks, Green Bay Packers and Washington). A Vikings upset would do wonders for their chances, but the Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals remain giant roadblocks to the Panthers' Super Bowl path.
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