Minnesota Vikings Appear to Have the Advantage in Rematch with Packers
It was barely over a month ago that the Green Bay Packers marched into TCF Bank Stadium and beat up on the hosting Minnesota Vikings, winning 30-13 and regaining control over the NFC North.
Six weeks later, the two longtime rivals will battle again—this time at Lambeau Field—with the division title on the line.
Many will revisit the first meeting and pick the Packers to win, believing Green Bay capable of repeating the performance from late November. But a closer look at the Packers and Vikings ahead of Sunday night's showdown reveals two teams heading in opposite directions. The Vikings are getting healthy and heating up, while the Packers are nursing some wounds and still reeling from another humbling loss at the hands of one of the NFL's elite.
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In most areas of the game, the Vikings appear to have an advantage over the Packers. And that includes the passing game. Does that mean Minnesota will win? No, but it does provide the Vikings a golden opportunity to win their first division title since 2009.
Here's a quick review of how the two teams stack up in some important facets:
Passing Game
Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback than Teddy Bridgewater. No one on the planet would argue otherwise. But over the last few weeks, Bridgewater has played far, far better than Rodgers.
Since the start of December (a four-game sample), Rodgers has completed 60.2 percent of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, with a passer rating of just 83.2. Bridgewater, meanwhile, has completed 67.9 percent of his passes and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt, with a passer rating of 105.8. Both teams played the Cardinals during the stretch; Rodgers had three turnovers and a passer rating of 66.2 during a 38-8 loss in Arizona, while Bridgewater completed 25 passes for 335 yards and was a botched final play away from taking his game against the Cardinals to overtime.
| Rodgers | 83/138 | 846 | 6/3 | 83.2 |
| Bridgewater | 74/109 | 852 | 6/1 | 105.8 |
Rodgers and his lackluster group of receivers continue to struggle, especially against Zimmer's preferred man coverage. Bridgewater and the Vikings are starting to click after an up-and-down start. If you had to pick a passing offense to make more big plays on Sunday night, Minnesota is probably (and amazingly) the more likely selection.
Running Game
The Packers rushed for 124 yards in the first meeting, including 100 from Eddie Lacy. The production on the ground was a big reason why Green Bay was able to move the football with some semblance of consistency.
Expecting the Packers to do it again feels a little foolish.
Since the start of the bye week, Green Bay has rushed for 120 or more yards just three times. During the six other games, the Packers failed to crack 105—with three games at 75 or under. The moral of the story here: Green Bay's rushing game is spectacularly inconsistent.
Minnesota's defense should be at or near full strength on Sunday. Linval Joseph and Harrison Smith, two important pieces to Mike Zimmer's run defense, will play after returning from injury last Sunday.
Once again, the more likely team to control the game on the ground is Minnesota. The Vikings have Adrian Peterson, the NFL's rushing leader, and some growing confidence along the offensive line. This past Sunday, Minnesota rushed for 218 yards against the New York Giants, including a run of 39 yards from Peterson and a 68-yard touchdown from backup Jerick McKinnon.
The Packers will have a very difficult time beating the Vikings without another big game on the ground. Is the Green Bay offense capable of producing consistently in the running game for a second straight meeting? Zimmer's defense will do everything in its power to make the Packers win the game with big plays via the air.
Defense
Zimmer loves to blitz. His defense is based on stopping the run and setting up blitzing opportunities for his front seven.
In the very near past, Aaron Rodgers was a quarterback most coordinators didn't dream to blitz. In 2015, it's a whole different story. According to Pro Football Focus, Rodgers is completing just over 50 percent of his passes against extra pressure, with 20 sacks taken and a passer rating of only 81.7.
Zimmer didn't blitz Rodgers much in the first meeting. Chances are high that will change on Sunday. He has Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks healthy and ready to attack the A-gaps. Green Bay is also dealing with a number of injuries up front, including at both tackle spots.
The Vikings can blitz Rodgers knowing that man coverage has smothered Green Bay's receivers this season. Expect Zimmer to bring his typical amount of pressure on Sunday night.
Trending
Momentum is difficult—if not impossible—to transfer from game to game. But it's clear one team in this matchup is heading to Lambeau Field trending up, while the other is obviously trending down.
Beat up and humbled by the Seattle Seahawks a month ago, the Vikings regrouped and played one of their best games of the season on a short week in Arizona. While a loss is a loss, that performance has helped springboard the Vikings. Minnesota outscored the Chicago Bears and Giants by 52 combined points.
Meanwhile, Green Bay had a chance to go to Arizona and put some serious heat on the Cardinals for the No. 2 seed. Instead of proving they belonged among the conference's best, the Packers laid an egg, committing four turnovers and losing by 30 points during another uncompetitive performance.
The Vikings appear to be gaining confidence. The Packers' conviction must be wavering after another blowout defeat. There's no better time than now for Minnesota to go to Lambeau Field and feel very good about its chances of winning.
Zach Kruse covers the Vikings for Bleacher Report.
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