49ers vs. Lions: What's the Game Plan for San Francisco?

The San Francisco 49ers will head off to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions in Week 16 in search of their fifth win of the season and just their second on the road this season.

These two sub-.500 teams will be vying for position in the upcoming 2016 NFL draft. At 4-10, the 49ers have a better shot to land a better pick than the 5-9 Lions, who have won four of their last six contests.

A loss would ensure the 49ers have a better draft position. But head coach Jim Tomsula's squad would also like to wind down the year on a positive note. To do so, the Niners will look to overcome Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford and a still-dangerous Detroit offense this Sunday.

How does San Francisco go about doing this?

Offensively, the 49ers still rank at the bottom of the NFL with just 202 points scored. And the defense, while playing better at home this season, will have to avoid the miscues suffered in Week 14 when San Francisco gave up 200-plus yards rushing to the Cleveland Browns, who had the league's worst ground game entering that contest.

So what should the 49ers' offensive and defensive game plans be for this Week 16 bout?

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Offensive Game Plan

San Francisco will have some difficulty moving the ball on the ground given the uncertain status of running back Shaun Draughn.

Draughn (knee) has been ruled out, and the 49ers will look to replicate his efforts with the tandem of Kendall Gaskins and recently acquired DuJuan Harris.

The two backs will have to work behind an offensive line that ranks No. 30 in the NFL in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus. Needless to say, running the ball hasn't been a strength of the 49ers O-line. And it won't get much easier given left guard Alex Boone (knee) is out for the game and, likely, for the rest of the season.

Fortunately, San Francisco will face a Lions defense that ranks 19th in the league with 1,576 rushing yards allowed on the season.

Look for the 49ers to be effective on the ground, if not stellar.

Still, San Francisco will have to generate an aerial attack in order to maintain successful offensive drives and overcome the recent issues on third down.

One of the key factors in ensuring quarterback Blaine Gabbert has enough protection within the pocket will be the O-line's efforts in blocking Detroit defensive end Ezekiel Ansah.

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Ansah is the Lions' sack leader with 13.5 on the season. He also has 16 quarterback hits and 28 hurries on the season, per PFF. He'll frequently line up opposite left tackle Joe Staley, who has been the 49ers' best offensive lineman with a plus-18.5 PFF grade on the year.

The Lions have done a commendable job this season of holding up against the pass. Detroit's defense ranks No. 12 in the league with just 3,354 yards allowed through the air.

But targeting Lions cornerback Nevin Lawson may be a crucial part of the 49ers' game plan. He's the lowest-ranked defensive back, with a minus-6.6 pass-coverage grade at PFF. On the other side in standard formations is Detroit's best corner, Darius Slay.

Look for Gabbert to try to exploit mismatches here.

Yet the most critical aspects for the 49ers will be to avoid 3rd-and-long plays and figure how to end drives in touchdowns and not the rising number of punts from rookie punter Bradley Pinion.

Given tight end Vance McDonald's recent penchant for drops (two were picked off for interceptions a week ago), the 49ers may like to see what they have in rookie tight end Blake Bell.

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Defensive Game Plan

San Francisco may catch a break this Sunday, since Lions leading wide receiver Calvin Johnson (ankle) is questionable for the game, per NFL.com (h/t CBS Sports).

Johnson has an even 1,000 yards receiving this season and is the team's best touchdown threat with seven to his credit.

Even if Megatron is able to go, Detroit will look to move the ball through the air by using fellow wideout Golden Tate. He is second on the Lions with 720 receiving yards this season and is a primary threat out of the slot.

So this will mean plenty of action for second-year defensive back Jimmie Ward.

David Fucillo of Niners Nation describes this matchup in more detail:

"

Ward will have a busy day on Sunday, as he can expect to see a lot of Golden Tate in the slot. Detroit uses 3+ WR personnel 70 percent of the time, and Tate runs 58 percent of his routes from the slot. Over the last three weeks, Tate has been the Lions leading pass-catcher, with 23 receptions on 26 targets, for 186 yards and four touchdowns. Calvin Johnson has only been targeted 14 times for five receptions, 79 yards and a touchdown the last three weeks. One of the interesting stats from PFF is that over the course of this season, 21 percent of Tate's targets have been wide receiver screens. That means disciplined tackling technique is going to be critical for Ward and other 49ers defenders.

"

Thankfully, Ward has been one of the better 49ers defenders in recent weeks. And, according to Jeff Deeney of Pro Football Focus, he has been the best cornerback in the NFL over the last three weeks.

Definitely not bad.

His recent play shows how Ward's development is starting to justify his first-round selection by San Francisco back in 2014.

But the 49ers' defensive efforts will need to do more than just rely on Ward's recent surge. Like the Browns, Detroit can't effectively run the ball on the ground. The Lions rushing attack ranks No. 31 in the NFL with just 1,181 yards, and the running game is averaging a mere 3.9 yards per play.

Memories of missed tackles and huge gains from a Browns rushing attack may haunt the 49ers defense on the road. Whether or not San Francisco's defenders can limit gains at the point of attack will determine whether Detroit will have to rely solely on its passing game.

It's an approach the Lions like to do. They're fifth in the league in passing attempts (556), so this trend will force pressure on the 49ers' pass rush.

Fortunately, signs are pointing to San Francisco's defense getting linebacker Aaron Lynch (concussion) back in Week 16. He has been in the NFL's concussion protocol all week but was able to fully practice, per the team's website.

And the 49ers will have an opportunity to put pressure on Stafford, given Detroit's minus-51.8 pass-protection grade on the season, per PFF—No. 25 in the league.

Key Players and Matchups

Lynch will frequently oppose Lions right tackle Michael Ola, so look for that matchup to be a key factor for the 49ers defense.

And defensive end Arik Armstead, who has seen his role increase thanks to the season-ending injury to defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, could also be a critical X-factor for San Francisco.

Lynch, Armstead and nose tackle Ian Williams have been the best 49ers defenders this season, according to PFF (h/t Grant Cohn of Bleacher Report). And this trio will work against a Lions O-line that has allowed 38 sacks on the season.

Equally important will be Ward vs. Tate. Detroit's slot receiver will be a favorite target of Stafford this weekend, so the 49ers defense will hope Ward can continue his solid play at Ford Field.

On the flip side, the 49ers' offensive efforts may come down to how well Staley holds up against Ansah. And Gabbert's ability to effectively move the ball will also be critical.

He'll need help out of the running game—not exactly a certain prospect, given the unproven duo of Harris and Gaskins.

Prediction

The 49ers aren't a good road team. Well, they aren't a good team at all this season. And, given the Lions' recent surge, it's hard to find a way to predict a San Francisco victory in Week 16.

San Francisco has scored 20 or more points just four times this season. And the 49ers have scored 14 or fewer points in four of their last five contests.

That isn't exactly a winning formula regardless of how well the defense is playing.

Granted, the Lions have had their fair share of woes this season. But Detroit's efforts over its last six contests look far better than what the Niners have shown over the same stretch.

Even if San Francisco is able to execute better than it has been, look for the Lions to come away with a victory over Tomsula and Co.

A 27-17 loss for the 49ers sounds about right.

All statistics, injury reports, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.

Peter Panacy is a Featured Columnist covering the San Francisco 49ers for Bleacher Report. Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.